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Faster Global Warming From Permafrost Melt
jc42 writes, "A recent study published in Nature documents the accelerating release of methane from melting permafrost. Methane is a greenhouse gas 23 times more potent than carbon dioxide, so this may signal more rapid warming in the near future. If you don't subscribe to Nature, the Guardian has a good summary of the piece." It's not just Siberian permafrost. One of the major concerns is bogs — they account for a relatively small percent of total surface space, but have a large amount of carbon locked up. No one is sure if the greenhouse effect will cause them to lock up more, or to release more carbon.
This isn't about predicting the weather. It is more similar to predicting that summer will be hot in Texas.
Avoid Missing Ball for High Score
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Instrumental_Te mperature_Record.png
Have a look at this graph. There's a lot of noise. If you were to look at 3 years in a row, it's pretty much impossible to guess what the temperature will be in the next year. But if you look at the whole graph, then it's pretty clear that things are on the whole getting hotter. Notice especially how fast the heating trend is in the last 10 years (9 of which are the hottest years ever recorded)
It's actually easier to predict things in the long term (given enough data) than it is to say, predict the weather in a week's time. Random fluctuations tend to even themselves out given enough time. That being said, the graph above isn't really enough data to show conclusively what is going to happen.
Ced