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Study Finds World Warmth Edging to Ancient Levels
Krishna Dagli writes to mention a decades-long study by NASA scientists. According to the research, global temperatures are reaching highs not seen in thousands of years. From the article: "One of the findings from this collaboration is that the Western Equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans are now as warm as, or warmer than, at any prior time in the Holocene. The Holocene is the relatively warm period that has existed for almost 12,000 years, since the end of the last major ice age. The Western Pacific and Indian Oceans are important because, as these researchers show, temperature change there is indicative of global temperature change. Therefore, by inference, the world as a whole is now as warm as, or warmer than, at any time in the Holocene. According to Lea, 'The Western Pacific is important for another reason, too: it is a major source of heat for the world's oceans and for the global atmosphere.'"
We've pumped coal, oil and gas that used to lie buried all into the atmosphere as CO2 and other byproducts at industrial scales for over a century. All that stuff used to live on the Earth during hotter climates, converting CO2 etc into themselves, then dying to be buried. We shouldn't be surprised when returning the gas they cleaned from our atmosphere returns us to the climates that preceeded them. Which we did not adapt to live in ourselves. And which have never changed so quickly, far outpacing the rate of human evolution, even if we were still as subject to natural evolution.
All that spells "extinction", or at best "civilization collapse".
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make install -not war
There was a study released a few years ago entitled "global warming could raise temperatures 10C!" (if CO2 levels double from current levels).
The writers of the study entitled it this because that was the most 'interesting' scenario they modeled, the others (and there were many) weren't nearly as spectacular, some even showed a decrease in temperature.
Regardless of what the study showed, the writers only believe that global temperatures will only rise 1-3C in the next 50 years (which is how long it should take for CO2 levels to double, if the rate continues as it has in the past).
Even at 3C, the shorelines will not be significantly changed.
This is also all based on the assumption of CO2 levels doubling, which may not happen due to various reasons unrelated to man's self-moderation (or lack thereof).
The article also mentions (if this is the same piece of copy I read earlier about this research) that hurricanes and weather systems such as El Niño could be altered by the warming of the oceans. It's easily possible that such things could happen that would work in man's favor. For instance, a temperature increase will mean more fresh water worldwide as there will be much more rainfall. Also, plants tend to grow faster when CO2 levels, water, and heat are increased. There was an article in Nature Magazine about how crop yeilds could increase by as much as 40% from these effects.
Not that I'm pro-global warming or I don't think it exists. The only opinion I'm expressing is that climate change may not be as bad as advertised.
Latewire
http://www.grist.org/pdf/AbruptClimateChange2003.
"There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. Because changes have been gradual so far, and are projected to be similarly gradual in the future, the effects of global warming have the potential to be manageable for most nations...
1) Food shortages due to decreases in net global agricultural production
2) Decreased availability and quality of fresh water in key regions due to shifted precipitation patters, causing more frequent floods and droughts
3) Disrupted access to energy supplies due to extensive sea ice and storminess
As global and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions could mount around the world, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and offensive. Nations with the resources to do so may build virtual fortresses around their countries, preserving resources for themselves. Less fortunate nations especially those with ancient enmities with their neighbors, may initiate in struggles for access to food, clean water, or energy. Unlikely alliances could be formed as defense priorities shift and the goal is resources for survival rather than religion, ideology, or national honor.
This scenario poses new challenges for the United States, and suggests several steps to be taken:
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The truth is scary thats why. Contrary to what you wish, human instinct doesn't evolve much. People prefer to put their head in the ground and wish the problem to go away. Hopefully there will be a couple of major hurricanes ripping up the east coast before the warming trend moves beyond repair. And yes there is a beyond repair, which is when enough ground is visible at the poles to make the process self feeding. Downfall of western civilization, well it won't be limited to a particular continent. Even if you think you can't be sure either way, how long do you want to do nothing? Personally I would rather try to do something about it before my house is permanently submerged; Which is about 3 degrees average temperature away. I would also like to be able to visit tropical islands on holiday.