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Comprehensive Projection of World Oil Exports
Prof. Goose writes, "This article is a comprehensive assessment of world oil exports, defined has the total amount of liquid hydrocarbons that are surpluses in producing countries. This assessment is made by projecting into the future fixed change rates that reflect current trends in liquids production and consumption in all countries where presently the difference between the two factors is positive. The outcome of this assessment is rather worrisome." Here is the money graph through 2020.
It is actually even worse than that. It uses the data from BP and the ASPO:
This assessment uses as data sources the Statistical Review of World Energy, published yearly by BP, and the monthly newsletter published by ASPO, where assessments for future oil production are available for more than 40 individual countries.
Now, why would a site that seems to be focused on a scarce energy outlook use these two sources? Probably because BP and the ASPO both have huge energy holdings. Their reports will show that energy is going to be more valuable in the future. The only way for it to be more valuable is if it is scarcer.
The real question is, why didn't they use data from the IEA or EIA? (I know, very similar letters)
The EIA suggests cheaper energy prices long term and a probable energy glut short term because we've had unreasonably high oil prices (high prices means that you drill for more oil... but our consumption has been basically flat = too much oil!) and the IEA is more moderate.
Not saying that this slam dunk bullshit but you have to question the source.
I know everyone loves the "running out of oil" story, but if that were true then why is oil barely above $60 when we have 2 huge suppliers threatening to cut back production, and North Korean bomb tests? If we were really running out of oil and some people threatened to cut us off plus some negative diplomatic news, we would be over 100 easily.
I submitted this story last night, and it didn't get posted.
My father is a pres. of Shell USA and a VP of Shell Intl. Early last year, I was talking to him, and he mentioned that they were working on 4xing their tar sands production. It's becoming very profitable. It was a gamble when they started putting money into it, but it's looking to be a good investment.
Pinkypants -- my favorite!
In other words, we're not your daddy's peak oil site. Read the site at least a bit (and know what you're talking about) before you spout off like that, eh?
Where are you going to get the ethanol to make all of this E85? Without some really major changes, the land required for this would be prohibitive. Some back-of-the-envelope numbers from a post I made elsewhere:
Gasoline consumed by United States annually: 140 billion gallons
Average energy of gasoline: 114,000 btu per gallon
Annual energy from gasoline in the United States: 16.0 E+15 btu
Average energy from ethanol: 76,100 btu per gallon
Volume of ethanol required to meet gasoline energy needs: 210 billion gallons
Volume of ethanol per bushel of corn: 2.7 gallons
Volume of corn required to replace gasoline use: 78 billion bushels
Volume of corn per area of farmland: 150 bushels per acre
Volume of ethanol per area of farmland: 410 gallons per acre
Area required to replace gasoline use: 520 million acres, or 2.1 million km^2
Total land area of United States: 9,161,000 km^2
Fraction of land required to meet gasoline energy needs: 23%
That fraction declines with other, more efficient stocks, but there are sometimes other expenses involved depending on the particular crop. Corn is the most widely-known and -used input, but sugarcane and sugarbeets are also possible. Switchgrass can reportedly yield as much as 1200 gallons per acre (though the energy efficiency is debated) and would thus significantly reduce the area required, but 8% of the country is still almost the size of North and South Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas combined.
To put this in further perspective, according to the CIA World Factbook, the total arable land for the United States is about 18%, so even with switchgrass, nearly half of the arable land would be devoted to fuel use, putting a massive dent in the ability of this nation to feed itself.
This is for straight ethanol use with no gasoline, but E85 barely dulls the edge of that blade.
You can never go home again... but I guess you can shop there.