iPod Owners Not As Loyal To Brand As Mac Owners

Virtual_Raider writes "A survey indicates that iPod owners may not be as loyal to their devices as Mac owners are to their computers, thus opening the possibility for Microsoft's Zune to enter the market. Surveyed people also indicated a high likelihood of buying the much maligned brown device. But that doesn't mean that the market is now at Microsoft's mercy." From the article: "ABI Research believes that a critical factor will be whether or not Microsoft can differentiate the Zune from competing products in some meaningful way. One differentiator, Zune's Wi-Fi peer-to-peer sharing, which Microsoft is playing up heavily, 'isn't all that compelling, at least not now,' notes Wilson. 'There's a lot more you could do with that capability.' But given the results of ABI Research's survey, Apple will need to make some big announcements in 2007 if it is to maintain its edge in the industry. Says Wilson, 'Apple needs a new high-end device that works really well and looks really cool, because other brands are catching up.'"

Comments

shoddy methodology

[Aurisor]

A new survey conducted by ABI Research has shown that many prospective MP3 player buyers--even owners of iPods--would be likely to choose Microsoft's Zune player. 1725 teenage and adult US residents were asked whether they planned to buy an MP3 player in the next 12 months. Of those responding that they were likely to do so, 58% of those identifying themselves as existing iPod owners and 59% of those who owned other brands said they would be "somewhat likely" or "extremely likely" to choose a Microsoft Zune player over an iPod or another brand of MP3 player.

"Our conclusion," says principal analyst Steve Wilson, "is that iPod users don't display the same passionate loyalty to iPods that Macintosh users have historically shown for their Apple products." Only 15% of iPod owners said they were "not very likely" or "not at all likely" to choose Zune.

I believe this article is deliberately misleading. The methodology they used HORRIBLY flawed. Let's take it apart piece by piece, shall we?

• They interviewed 1725 teenagers and adults.
• Of that group of people, they threw out all of them who said they were not likely to buy an MP3 player in the next 12 months. If I were a loyal, satisfied ipod owner, I would be completely discounted from this survey. Furthermore, they give no indication of how many people actually made it to this point. It's entirely possible that out of the initial 1725, only 200 were looking to buy a new mp3 player. Out of the remaining 1525, 1000 could have no interest in MP3 players at all, and the remaining 500 could be raving lunatic apple fanatics, for all we know.
• Now, for the next step, they say 58% of the users they surveyed WHO ARE GOING TO BUY A NEW MP3 PLAYER IN THE NEXT YEAR currently own ipods. You see how sneaky this is? In the first step, they eliminated people who are happy with their current mp3 players, so this step generates this rather meaningless statistic.
• The next step is even more of a non-sequitur. They state that 59% of the people who own other brand mp3 players say they are at least "somewhat likely" to buy a zune.

So what's the REAL conclusion here? Let's rephrase the results of their study more accurately:

1) 58% of the people in the market for a new mp3 player own an ipod. This statistic is useless as a measure of brand loyalty because we get no information about how many people who own ipods are satisfied. 58% of ipod owners are looking for a new mp3 player would be an interesting statistic. 58% of people looking for new mp3 players are ipod owners isn't because of the issues of sample size and the lack of any data about satisfied customers.

2) 59% of the people in the market for a new mp3 player who bought something other than an ipod are at least "somewhat likely" to buy a zune. To simplify, if you bought an mp3 player and didn't pick the ipod last time and are buying a new one you're looking at offerings that aren't the ipod (i.e. the zune). No shit?

Anyways, I'm not at all impressed by this survey, the methodology seems weak and I don't think there's really any useful information here.