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PC Makers May Be Left On the Shelves
An anonymous reader writes "With the problems posed by a new Microsoft OS, exploding laptop batteries, and changing technology, PC makers may be feeling this pinch this holiday season. Many consumers who are considering purchasing PC hardware are going to be holding off for next year, according to research analysts." From the article: "According to market researcher IDC, PC shipment growth slowed to 7.9 percent in the third quarter, from double-digit percentage growth in the prior three years. The battery recalls may cut into fourth quarter growth, IDC said. Bank of America on October 31 cut its 2006 PC growth forecast to 9.4 percent from 10 percent. All this suggests that consumers looking for bargain gifts may opt for less-expensive gadgets such as cell phones, digital music players, video phones or noise-cancelling headphones."
A lot of gamers will opt for a Wii or a PS3 instead of a new PC this year as well. Not a good year to own Dell stock.
I still have more fans than freaks. WTF is wrong with you people?
PC makers will definitely feel the (lack of) heat this holiday season. Honestly, who would want to buy now? You get a computer installed with Windows XP, most likely with one of those "promise" certificates, that supposedly give you a free upgrade to Windows Vista. I remember when I got my own computer before moving into college. It was a disaster.
This was Fall 2001. Windows XP wasn't quite out yet, but was more or less supposed to be. I got a Dell with Windows ME installed. In polite terms, it blew dick. My only hope was this certificate for a free upgrade to Windows XP Home Edition (not that I wanted Home). Well, this wasn't a license for WinXP. It was a promise. That Dell would bestow it upon me if they so desired. I called the tech support dept to see if they could do that. Oh wait, thats sales' job. I called sales. They dole me it was tech support's job. I called tech support back and they told me it still wasn't their job. 2 hours of tech support later, you can guess how far I got.
After that much anguish, I still didn't get my copy of XP. For the record, my computer had coincidentally crashed during the time it took to get through to tech support. Worst purchase I ever made. I should have just waited. Good thing for Direct Connect/Kazaa getting me a real copy of what should have been on my computer when I got it.
Even giving Dell the benefit of the doubt here, the best I could have asked for would be a clean install of XP Home. But most of the software that came with my computer was designed for FAT32 windows and not NT. If I wasn't a relatively prudent computer user, I would have been completely stumped. In fact, I knew my shit decently well, and I still had a nightmare.
Buying a computer right before a big software release is a disaster waiting to happen. Unless you're specifically not planning to upgrade, you know you're going to get a lack of proper support (Why are ou trying to run XP? It says here that your Dell came with Windows ME?).
Personally, I think you'd have to be stupid to buy a new computer at a time like this. With Vista's clusterf*ck, AMD's sluggish release of 65nm chips, and the Directx 10-related delays of the next-gen video cards from Nvidia and ATi (G80 and R600, respectively), why would you want to upgrade now? It would be stupid. If you want a Christmas present, get a gift certificate. If you want a *real* computer, wait till this crap get straightened out. Personally, I feel bad for the computer makers this season, but I can't recommend buying one for Christmas to anyone in their right minds.
Partial Credit: The Engineer's Best friend
"Well, the bridge didn't fall all the way down!"
Even tough technology is still improving, just how often are computer manufacturers expecting consumers to purchase a brand new PC? It sounds to me that the slowing growth is more in part due to market saturation than anything else. Computer sales have enjoyed double digit growth through more difficult times than these (Windows ME fiasco, I.LOVE.YOU viruses, massive job loss in the bubble burst, terror attacks and wars, various US and foreign stock upsets, etc).
I am thinking the sources behind this article have stock in Dell and other afflicted manufaturers. Dell will probably see a short-term loss of laptop sales due to their bad press from the exploding batteries. What better way to hedge your losses than say the entire laptop market is slowing in growth, rather than Dell simply losing sales to a competitor? It'll take months for the actual sales numbers to come in, and by then everyone will have forgotten about these stories.
Be wary of any such article around crucial marketing periods like the winter holidays (just as you should be cautious of TV execs hyping up their shows during sweeps periods). Many brokers and firms can make-or-break a large profits during the next two months, all hinging on how well they predicted holiday sales figures from earlier in the year, and not everyone is a neutral party.
The Mac platform today is ground zero for the switcheur epidemic, which means more tourists and more expatriates moving in.
You can be a snob if you want, but I welcome every new Mac user. Better late than never.
-jcr
The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."