Software Used To Predict Who Might Kill

eldavojohn writes "Richard Berk, a University of Pennsylvania criminologist, has worked with authorities to develop a software tool that predicts who will commit homicide. I could not find any papers published on this topic by Berk, nor any site stating what specific Bayesian / decision tree algorithm / neural net is being implemented." From the article: "The tool works by plugging 30 to 40 variables into a computerized checklist, which in turn produces a score associated with future lethality. 'You can imagine the indicators that might incline someone toward violence: youth; having committed a serious crime at an early age; being a man rather than a woman, and so on. Each, by itself, probably isn't going to make a person pull the trigger. But put them all together and you've got a perfect storm of forces for violence,' Berk said. Asked which, if any, indicators stood out as reliable predicators of homicide, Berk pointed to one in particular: youthful exposure to violence." The software is to enter clinical trials next spring in the Philadelphia probation department. Its intent is to serve as a kind of triage: to let probation caseworkers concentrate most of their effort on the former offenders most likely to be most dangerous.

Comments

Re:Reference

[dysk]

Interesting stuff. Here's a link to the full text:

http://130.58.240.179:8080/~erek/minorityreport.pd f

Re:Utter BS

[Llywelyn]

1) Convicted criminals are the only ones that concern probation officers.

2) Convicted criminals are the only ones they are likely to have the data to fill most of the fields for.

3) Probation officers have a job to do that does not involve tracking random citizens.

Thus, it seems unlikely it could be used for anything *but* the intended purpose without a fairly serious rework.