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Software Used To Predict Who Might Kill
eldavojohn writes "Richard Berk, a University of Pennsylvania criminologist, has worked with authorities to develop a software tool that predicts who will commit homicide. I could not find any papers published on this topic by Berk, nor any site stating what specific Bayesian /
decision tree algorithm /
neural net is being implemented." From the article: "The tool works by plugging 30 to 40 variables into a computerized checklist, which in turn produces a score associated with future lethality. 'You can imagine the indicators that might incline someone toward violence: youth; having committed a serious crime at an early age; being a man rather than a woman, and so on. Each, by itself, probably isn't going to make a person pull the trigger. But put them all together and you've got a perfect storm of forces for violence,' Berk said. Asked which, if any, indicators stood out as reliable predicators of homicide, Berk pointed to one in particular: youthful exposure to violence." The software is to enter clinical trials next spring in the Philadelphia probation department. Its intent is to serve as a kind of triage: to let probation caseworkers concentrate most of their effort on the former offenders most likely to be most dangerous.
Riiiiight, because places like Brazil (with virtually no legal gun ownership) are much safer than the US. Oh, or there's Washington DC with their super safe streets. Or Chicago. Or San Francisco. Or...
Wait, sorry, got that one backwards didn't I!
Fact: When Florida loosened restrictions on concealed weapon carry to allow law abiding citizens to carry firearms the crime rates (violent or otherwise) dropped sharply, within months.
Fact: Washington DC, Chicago, San Francisco and other gun hating metropolitan areas make it harder for law abiding citizens to own and use firearms, crime goes up, not down.
Fact: No gun ever shot a person without a person pulling the trigger. Those individuals who are intent on taking life or causing harm will do so regardless of the laws in place, or even the availability of guns.
One of the best things about the good old US of A is your RIGHT to have an opinion, or a firearm, or both if you really want them. Any reasonable statistical analysis will show that the 'no guns for anyone' position has no positive outcome on overall or violent crime rates.
And since a previous poster brought it up, lets hit one of the big points that all those scared of guns love to throw out; the higher suicide rate with gun owners. Saying that having guns make a person more likely to commit suicide is pretty easily shot down by looking at a country like Japan. Guns are illegal there, but they have one of the highest suicide rates in the world; so, I ask you, what comes first? The chicken or the egg?