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Arctic Ice May Melt By 2040

Dekortage writes in with a new study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research suggesting that the North Pole may be clear of ice in summer as soon as 2040, decades earlier than previously thought. From the article: "'As the ice retreats, the ocean transports more heat to the Arctic and the open water absorbs more sunlight, further accelerating the rate of warming and leading to the loss of more ice,' Holland said in the statement. 'This is a positive feedback loop with dramatic implications for the entire Arctic.'"

8 of 474 comments (clear)

  1. Sea Level? by Mizled · · Score: 5, Funny

    Does this mean the sea level will rise some?

    --
    Bite my shiny metal ass.
    1. Re:Sea Level? by Qzukk · · Score: 5, Informative

      You can try this yourself with a glass of water and ice cubes. Mark the water line with the ice cubes floating, then let the ice melt and notice that it hasn't moved. This is elementary school physics.

      And by the time you get to college, you should have learned that the experiment does not work with saltwater.

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      If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
  2. Re:Oh please by Paltin · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Ever notice how people that are skiing wear sunglasses?

    That's because ice reflects sunlight.

    Take all the energy that the polar regions reflect because of sunlight, and instead add it to the ocean in polar regions.

    That's the math they're saying they did, and the answer they came up with is : the polar cap melts fast!

    If you don't want to buy it, do a counter study. As is, their results seem fairly clear and robust. Not saying that they're exactly right, but a counter argument needs to be more then you saying "NOOOOOOO".

  3. Re:No change in sea level. by sadtrev · · Score: 5, Informative
    A few reasons why this is significant
    1. not all the ice that could melt is supported by water buoyancy.
    2. temperature changes of liquid water will cause change in density.
    3. polar bears will drown
    The first is what could inhibit the Atlantic Conveyor by weakening its motive force : the downward flow of cooled salty water would be disrupted by large quantities of freshwater runoff from Greenland. Consequence - European weather becomes more like that on Newfoundland.
    The second mechanism is what will cause sea levels to rise - the average temperature of the ocean is more than 4C so an uniform increase in water temperature will cause expansion. As the ocean is quite deep in places, a small expansion could lead to a significant rise in water level.
    Admittedly not everybody cares about polar bears drowning or European climate becoming too cold to make Champagne or low-lying island states in the Indian Ocean being obliterated. Selfish gits.
  4. Liberal Lies by eno2001 · · Score: 5, Funny

    The liberal moonbats are at it again. They're using all this "science" to provide us with "answers" about things which are essentially unknowable. And why? It's a vast liberal conspiracy that is meant to try and gain the hearts and minds of the weak willed and fey. But we modern conservatives are made of stern stuff!! We don't need "science" to tell us about the world around us. We use what's right in front of us: reality. If global warming WERE happening, which it isn't, it should be warmer outside today than it was in the past at this time of year. And even then, those liberals spin everything and flip-flop. You tell them that it's actually colder and they say that's a sign of global warming! What tricksters!! Well thankfully, the world has joined the conservative party and after the landslide win for Bush in 2004, it's obvious that things are NEVER going back. Don't believe in the lies that the liberals tell you or try to scare you with. It's purely scare tactics of a dying belief system. Instead, accept that as rugged individualists, we in the conservative parties will triumph over any adversity. We are strong. We are adaptable. Even IF global warming were happening WHICH it isn't, business would build special suits, vehicles and housing and create new materials to live on a hotter planet. The market will decide! And besides, my Enron stocks are way up there today. Thanks Cheney! :)

    --
    -"...bad old ideas look confusingly fresh when they are packaged as technology" - Jaron Lanier (Digital Maoism on Edge.o
  5. Re:No change in sea level. by Climate+Shill · · Score: 5, Informative

    I've been following global warming for a long time now doing a lot research on the side for the last couple of years. Here are some facts about global warming. Some of which you hear and don't hear from the main stream media: 1.) The world appears to be getting warmer with many computer models showing an increase in global temperature.

    The word you're looking for here is "thermometers".

    3.) Apparently, the Earth magnetic field has decreased by 10% in the last 150 years (source: http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/earth_magnet ic_031212.html). I'm an electrical engineer and during my studies in particle physics, I learned that a particles velocity can be affected by magnetic fields. I believe it's possible that more of the Sun's radiation is penetrating the Earth's magnetic field due to it being weaker. If more radiation hits the Earth, shouldn't that also increase the overall temperature of the Earth and can global warming be attributed to this?

    No, obviously not. The temperature was falling throughout those 150 years and has only started rising recently. The only correlated factor is CO2.

    4.) Jupitor is experiencing the same climate change that Earth is. (source: http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/060504_red_j r.html [space.com])

    5.) Mars is experiencing the same climate change that Earth is. (source: http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/ mars_snow_011206-1.html and http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/new s/news.html?in_article_id=410901&in_page_id=1770)

    Complete crap. We have absolutely no idea what the temperature history of the other planets is and so we have no way of drawing any conclusions from any changes we see.

    6.) The United Nations found that there is more Methane produced from livestock, which raises global temperature greater than CO2 by a factor of approx. 20, than any human caused CO2 combined (source: http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2006/1000448/i ndex.html)

    The article you linked to says that CH4 only amounts to 18% of CO2-equivalent emissions. Since the lifetime of CH4 is only 12 years, the cumulative effect is smaller still.

    How can you explain the recent same climate changes on different planets? I doubt it's all those cars being driven there.

    See above. However, since temperatures on Earth have only started rising recently, and we've been monitoring the Sun's output longer than that, we can be sure the reason isn't a change in the Sun.

    Is it possible that the warmer temperatures that Earth is experiencing are caused by cyclical natural phenomena? What about glaciers in Greenland that have been shrinking for 100 years (source: http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/08/21/060821191 826.o0mynclv.html [breitbart.com])? Also, how do you explain huge ice ages on Earth? Were thse caused by huge carbon emissions or was it a small natural climate cycle that just happens? Were those climate changes, which are no doubt more extreme than what's going on now, caused by the combustion engine? I don't have answers and everyone seems to have an opinion including a Nobel laureate who says the answer is more pollution (source: http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/science/11/16/smog.wa rming.ap/index.h

  6. Re:No change in sea level. by FhnuZoag · · Score: 5, Insightful

    2.) Tying a trend to warmer temperatures based on older data from the early 1900's is suspect at best. Good, reliable, accurate scientific equipment that measures the temperature wasn't readily available until recently (late 1900's).

    This is why we use proxies to determine the temperature back then. There multiple datasets ranging from ice cores (we match the variations in atmospheric concentrations in more recent periods, and use the cores as a proxy to earlier dates), and tree ring data and so on. We generally don't use temperature records from early 1900s for precisely the above reason.

    If more radiation hits the Earth, shouldn't that also increase the overall temperature of the Earth and can global warming be attributed to this?

    But its different kinds of radiation. Magnetic fields affect charged particles only - aka solar wind and the aurora, and these have negligible energy input, especially relative to normal EM radiation which GW is about. Now, additionally, we have good data recently on the trends in both solar radiance and temperature forcing, and numerous papers have concluded that the sun itself can explain at most 30% of the observed trend. (Google scholar for the relevant papers)

    4.) Jupitor is experiencing the same climate change that Earth is. (source: http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/060504_red_j r.html [space.com])

    Check out the time frames! The dates given are 1998 - about 10 years.

    Now, what do you think the orbital period of Jupiter around the sun is? Wikipedia has an answer 4333 days = 12 years. So, how interesting it is that we are seeing changes on the same time frame as Jupiter's passage around the sun, a passage that of course is not perfectly circular, in fact getting closer and further from the sun as time goes on...

    What's more, there's another major factor - Jupiter's colour. Huge tracts of Jupiter's surface are in different colours, and as these vortices move about, obviously that is going to change its irradiance. Fortunately, Earth is not one big hurricane.

    5. This is similar to Jupiter. Mars has an orbital period of 2 years, and has much greater eccentricity than Earth in its orbit. The temperature trend we have is over 3 years, a 1.5 cycles, something like between winter this year and summer next year. How mysterious that there would be a warming trend.

    Additionally, there are dust storm factors as well: See http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=192

    6. That source doesn't say that. Go read it again. Methane is more powerful per volume, and agriculture as a whole takes up more than transport. But transport isn't everything and the total volume of methane is small. Campaigners focus on transport, because transport is easier to cut than agriculture without killing bazillions of people.

    Were those climate changes, which are no doubt more extreme than what's going on now, caused by the combustion engine?

    They aren't. They happened over thousands of years and can be explained by a variety of other factors, whilst the current change is happening over decades and there is no other observed factor that can explain it.

  7. Re:No change in sea level. by Iron+Condor · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I've been following global warming for a long time now doing a lot research on the side for the last couple of years.

    No, you haven't. You are a liar. You've been listening to ultra-rightwing propaganda lies and you're happy to parrot them blindly and unreflectedly. That's a difference.

    Many have pointed out the utter absurdity of your gibberish. Here's a couple more examples:

    2.) Tying a trend to warmer temperatures based on older data from the early 1900's is suspect at best. Good, reliable, accurate scientific equipment that measures the temperature wasn't readily available until recently (late 1900's)

    Shackleton recorded the annual extent of sea ice around Antarctica. We've been doing this for close to 100 years now. This IS a measurement of global temperatures.

    Every harbor in the world keeps a record of the annual high-water mark at least since the British Empire. Every harbor in the world has seen the ocean levels rising for at least the last 100 years. This IS a measurement of global temperatures.

    Weather related damages to the US agriculture (floods, droughts, hurricanes) have been tracked since Jefferson's time. This IS a measurement of global climate.

    I'm an electrical engineer and during my studies in particle physics, I learned that a particles velocity can be affected by magnetic fields.

    You might want to call Joe's Diploma Emporium and ask for your money back: magnetic force (and thus acceleration) is always perpendicular to the velocity of a charge. No amount of magnetic fields can increase or decrease the speed of a charged particle (and certainly not an uncharged one).

    Jupitor [...]

    In all your thorough research, you've never come across the name of this planet in printed form? Even once?

    Is it possible that the warmer temperatures that Earth is experiencing are caused by cyclical natural phenomena? What about glaciers in Greenland that have been shrinking for 100 years

    Wait - didn't you just tell us not to believe any temperature indicators that are 100 years old?

    Were those climate changes, which are no doubt more extreme than what's going on now,

    You are so utterly mentally retarded that it hurts my teeth to read your drivel. NEVER in the history of the earth has anything happened that was even a tiny fraction of what we are seeing today. Not only were the ice ages NOT "more extreme", they were peanuts compared to what we see today. We have a pretty decent record of global temperatures for several hundred thousand years and there is no indication anywhere of global temperatures changing on the time-scales of decades or even centuries. Nothing like what we're seeing right now can be found anywhere in the earth's climate record.

    I recommend that you refrain from posting about issues you do not have the shimmer of a clue about.

    --
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