Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle

An anonymous reader pointed us at a post on the Physorg blog, which discusses the possibility of an upcoming period of intense solar weather. We've discussed this before, but increasingly the evidence looks like 'Solar Cycle 24' (due to start in 2010 or so) is going to make life interesting here on earth. From the post: "Hathaway explains: 'When a gust of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field, the impact causes the magnetic field to shake. If it shakes hard enough, we call it a geomagnetic storm.' In the extreme, these storms cause power outages and make compass needles swing in the wrong direction. Auroras are a beautiful side-effect. Hathaway and Wilson looked at records of geomagnetic activity stretching back almost 150 years and noticed something useful:. 'The amount of geomagnetic activity now tells us what the solar cycle is going to be like 6 to 8 years in the future,' says Hathaway."

Comments

Solar Cycle 24

[The Living Fractal]

Hmm, is that the cycle where we see one day of the Sun's life, and during that day the sun gets shot multiple times, saves the president, arrests the president later, gets beaten mercilessly, heals completely, and saves the girl, all in one day.. Or am I confusing this with something else...?

TLF

Re:Solar Cycle 24

[_Sharp'r_]

You're confusing it with the cycle where the sun changes weather patterns on earth and some people pretending to be scientists blame it all on you and demand that you live in a cave (or just die) and give them all political power (since they know best what everyone should do) in order to make up for your evil deeds, such as creating prosperity for everyone.

But don't worry, I'm sure some idiot somewhere will cite these effects as "proof" that corporations control the world's climate. After all, all solar changes are obviously a result of man's interference in outer space.

Re:Solar Cycle 24

[The Living Fractal]

Yes, but if Chuck Norris simply sneezes the Solar Flare will be pushed back. It's just too bad Chuck Norris never gets sick and has no allergies. Jack Bauer, you win this round.

TLF

Re:Solar Cycle 24

[The Living Fractal]

So what you're telling me is to buy stock in a corporation, and probably one that produces sun tan lotion?

TLF

Re:Solar Cycle 24

[cbacba]

Wrongo

Solar cycle 24 is starting now, it will peak a little around 2010 or 2012.

It's more likely time to sell stock in suntan oil companies. The ozone hole is likely to decrease substantially (somewhat depending on mt aribus' outgassing activities). It's possible the hole might decrease to the lowest amount it's been measured at due to the expectations of this cycle's strength. Unfortunately, it very possible that the envirowhackos will have a field day on global warming as this cycle strengthens due to interactions between the increased magnetic activies, the cosmic ray backgrounds and the formation of cloud cover - permitting the slight rise of temperatures due to the decrease in cloud formation we will probably get due to the decrease in cosmic ray impacts due to the increase in magnetic field activities. Also, we can expect more areas to have drought conditions although at present we are still getting lots of rain due in part to the fact that we are flat out at the minimum between cycles 23 and 24.

Don't expect the whackos to know or admit the above because it doesn't promote their political agenda based on the supposed man created global warming.

H-alpha filters

[Average_Joe_Sixpack]

I know many in the amateur astronomy community are gearing up for this cycle, and are saving their pennies for H-alpha filters & telescopes.

Wondering...

[Darundal]

...if anyone more knowledgable about the subject for me could tell me;

A: What areas of the Earth are likely to be most and least affected
B: How bad are the effects supposed to be
C: What are some examples (links to articles or research) of previous effects that may be widely known (other than the Aurora)

Thanks

Re:Wondering...

[jonfr]

Check out NOAA webpage about this. The most affect areas are going to be the sunlid areas of the planet. But see more here, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html

Re:Wondering...

[Darlantan]

Well, the poles tend to see a lot of magnetic activity, for obvious reasons. Given this, I'd say that if you want the least effects, the equatorial regions are where to be.

Having said that, I'd like to point out that (due to the scale of these things) they're global events. If a big flare heads our way, it could cause global disruptions. A big flare could effectively disrupt global radio communications, as well as wipe out multiple sattelites. Power grid hits are also a possibility.

If you are thinking about heading for greener pastures to avoid this thing, my advice to you is not to bother. If you're REALLY worried, get some power filtering equipment/UPSes and a backup generator.

If you aren't worried...well, I have it on good authority that (if the weather is right) being out on the water during these events can be very spectacular. I had a relative who was out on one of the great lakes during calm weather, and according to him the aurora was spectacular. The smooth water reflected the lights overhead. Personally, I plan on heading north to see the show.

Re:Wondering...

[Dunbal]

The most affect areas are going to be the sunlit areas of the planet.

      Well DUH! Thank you, Captain Obvious!

Inconstant Moon type interesting

[Nom du Keyboard]

How interesting? Inconstant Moon type interesting? I heard we were going to have a big Atlantic Ocean hurricane season as well. I'm still waiting.

My point is, such forecasts of such still poorly understood phenomena still seem to go wrong much more often than they go right. And then when someone does happen to hit it right all I seem to hear is, "See, we knew all along. Now listen to us always!"

TimeTravel tag?

[stevenm86]

So does this mean we can predict solar flares and use them to travel to the past or the future?

Re:Damn them solarians!

[DevelopersDevelopers]

Calm down. It may look like Slashdot doesn't care about the plight of the Solarians right now, but I swear we'll pledge our support just as soon as the Sun releases them under the GPL.

As accurate as the hurricane season prediction?

[Jerry]

This year was supposed to have several MAJOR hurricanes, worse than ever before, because of "Global Warming".
IIRC, 11 were predicted. Zero appeared.

I suspect this Solar catastrophe prediction will be just as accurate.

Cool...

[exp(pi*sqrt(163))]

...gotta start saving for that H-alpha telescope. Believe it or not, for about $500 you can buy a telescope that allows you to view the sun through a filter with a bandwidth of less than .1 nm. This gives you an idea of what you can see with it.

Ham radio and cycle 24

[Anonymous Coward]

The amateur radio community (Yes, we're still here) is waiting with baited traps for the "Peak of '24". Ya see, its only in the cycle peaks when amateur radio becomes too much fun. Times like now, in the valley of solar near-death, we have to fight to maintain any contact with our buddies. Remember when Cb radios would skip from Alaska to Mexico? That was a solar maximum, and a weak one at that. Imagine what you could do with a legal kilowatt of power and a well engineered antenna! I know some of the old timers who are literally praying for a few more years before they go "silent key" in order to reap the harvest of contacts that is predicted. If you wish to experience the true camaraderie of thousands of geek friends and associates, during what may be the most interesting solar cycle yet, start studying for that ham ticket. We've made it even easier than ever before. See ya down the log.

Bitchy, bitchy, bitch

[kitzilla]

Oh, great ... the sun has a big cycle on the way. No doubt it will be bitchy and irritable beforehand. Like we need that.

kinda here

[zogger]

A quick google tells me the sun reverses magnetic field every 22 years. 11 is in the middle, guess that is why but not fully. So we shift that question upstream one notch as to the "why?" part. source : http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/sun/activit y/solar_cycle.html

I also just found out this NASA solar division lost funding

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.sht ml

December 21st, 2012

[SilverwoodUG]

6 to 8 years in the future?
It doesn't land on December 21st, 2012 does it?
End of the Maya Calendar

Back in 1990...

[pixelguru]

I remember the last big solar event back in 1990 - cable TV had just become available at my parents' rural house that summer, but we enjoyed the first several months of HBO with fuzzy pink fringe and lots of static due to all the solar interference. Anything was better than our old aerial reception though, so we lived with a pink Crypt Keeper and Dream On.

In the fall, I went back to school in western NY state (Alfred University, near the NY/PA border), and on many nights in December, we could see vivid Auroras even over the campus light polution. At the time, I didn't think it was possible for them to be visible at such a lattitude. If the next maximum ends up being as strong as predicted, we might even see them farther south.

December 14th

[From A Far Away Land]

I enjoyed the aurora last week. They were so intense, they were bright even to the south of me. Photos at the link in my signature if you're curious. I've animated them too.

End of the world, actually

[Darkman, Walkin Dude]

I can't believe no one has mentioned this, but that correlates neatly with the end of the Mayan long count calendar, signalling the end of the fifth age and mankind (according to some sources, also a new beginning of some sort), and the start of the sixth. Heres an excerpt from the article:

The end of the 13th b'ak'tun is conjectured to have been of great significance to the Maya, but does not necessarily mark the end of the world according to their beliefs, but a new beginning or time of re-birth. According to the Popol Vuh, a book compiling details of creation accounts known to the Quiché Maya of the colonial-era highlands, we are living in the fifth world. The Popol Vuh describes the first four creations that the gods failed in making and the creation of the successful fifth world where men were placed. The Maya believed that the fifth world would end in catastrophe and the sixth and final world would be created that would signal the end of mankind.

The last creation ended on a long count of 13.0.0.0.0. Another 13.0.0.0.0 will occur on December 21, 2012, and it has been discussed in many New Age articles and books that this will be the end of this creation, the next pole shift or something else entirely.

I don't know if thats the coolest thing I've ever seen, or the creepiest.