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The Decline of the PS3 Grey Market

Kotaku has a great piece up looking at trends over time in the PS3 grey market. Michael Fahey has been tracking the falling prices for Sony's new console, via sales on eBay and other markers. He called around to stores as well, getting a feel for the number of returns and current availability of the console. His conclusions: "As it turns out my gamer instincts and the threat of hordes of angry readers steered me clear of potential disaster. Aside from a couple brief spikes, there is no way I'd have been able to pull off the television, and I know damn well I would have waited for Christmas like so many others did, only to lose even more. The moral of this story? There's no such creature as a sure thing. The majority of eBay prospectors walked away from this experience with that lesson burned into the back of their brains. My suggestion for the future? If you want to gamble, go to Vegas. If you want to invest, try mutual funds. Leave the video game system buying to the gamers. We'll all be happier for it. "

17 of 274 comments (clear)

  1. Wii on Ebay by LoverOfJoy · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Now if only the prices would drop for the wii and people started returning them to stores so I could find one.

    1. Re:Wii on Ebay by UbuntuDupe · · Score: 5, Interesting

      People aren't returning Wiis because a) people like them, and b) you can sell them for more than the refund.

      Confession: I'm a failed PS3 scalper. I thought I struck gold when the store I was in announced they had three in stock and I got one (Dec 20). Yesterday I was able to return it (the PlayAlbatross 3 as I call it) for a full refund after price on resell sites plummeted to the point where it wouldn't be worth it. Also, amazon wouldn't take sales from new sellers, and craigslist had scalper hunters unjustly flagging scalpers.

      Arbitrage isn't as risk-free as they like to make it sound.

    2. Re:Wii on Ebay by RasputinAXP · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You say "unjustly" as if scalping is a good thing.

    3. Re:Wii on Ebay by UbuntuDupe · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You say "unjustly" as if scalping is a good thing.

      I said "unjustly" in the sense that the PS3 listings that were being removed clearly met all of craigslist's rules.

      But scalping is a good thing in that it makes it possible for people willing to pay more (rather than spend ages line) able to get one without getting line. If there were no scalpers, people would just hire placeholders. I don't think that would make anyone feel any better.

    4. Re:Wii on Ebay by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      scalping is a good thing in that it makes it possible for people willing to pay more (rather than spend ages line) able to get one without getting line.

      The thing is, the fact that the market tanked so quickly means that the vast majority of the people in line WERE the scalpers. Scalpers manufactured the long lines and shortages they tried to profit from, only in this case, the only people to sell to were the other scalpers that were waiting in line to get one because there was no real shortage of units, only the demand created by the scalpers.

    5. Re:Wii on Ebay by Volante3192 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That would be socialism. This is capitalism, and wealth is seperate from rights.

    6. Re:Wii on Ebay by 0xdeadbeef · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Being an asshole in a self-policing community sure is a bitch, ain't it?

      When people start modding you down because they're sick of your whining, are you going accuse them of censorship too?

    7. Re:Wii on Ebay by @madeus · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I said "unjustly" in the sense that the PS3 listings that were being removed clearly met all of craigslist's rules.

      I think many here would argue it's still just, irrespective of it meeting craigslist rules or not.

      But scalping is a good thing in that it makes it possible for people willing to pay more

      Alternatively, it make it nigh on impossible for people willing to pay a reasonable price to get hold of one, and so the products (or tickets) go unused, ultimately satisfying very few people (and so being detrimental overall).

      I've seen this both at events and with consoles (typically with loads of people then complaining they couldn't get tickets/consoles through offical channels and having witnessed myself items subsequently being withdrawn from eBay or failing to meet minimum bits, and in the case of tickets, loads of scalpers trying to sell tickets at the door to no avail, and the venue being only 3/4 full despite tickets having 'sold out' in the first hour). The 'empty seats' issue being one of the reasons why tickets for major sports events are often so heavily controlled and tied to a name on photo ID these days (due to unused tickets meaning less people attending the event, and so harming sales of food/drink/t-shirts, etc).

      Loads of scalpers end up with excess goods (consoles, tickets, etc) - and potential customers (gamers, music fans, sports fans) end up pissed off and can't buy what they wanted. The summary is right, it's not a good way to make money, if it was I think it's likely event ticket scalpers would not resemble homeless people (as they invariably do). It's seems evident that most people who feel the need to result to gambling on being able to resell consoles as a way to make money are not comfortably off either (if they are, then they are irredeemably greedy).

      It only makes money for a very select few, as we've simply seen that there are not tens of thousands of people willing to pay insane prices for consoles rather than wait two months, hell there are barely hundreds of people willing to pay significantly over the RRP, yet scalpers screw up by vastly overestimating demand. "Oh look, that one guy made 10,000 USD selling one on eBay! I should be able to get that too!" (and thinking they are hard done by and blaming others when it doesn't work for them).

      e.g. Saying things like "The concert was promoted poorly", or "the team/band/console is no good" rather than thinking they were undone by their own greed.

      I saw my I got my X-Box 360 bundle in a store in the middle of London for 380 UKP (IIRC) about a month after they came out. Even though there were no units in store anywhere else, it sat there for a week before I went 'Screw it, I'm thinking of getting an HDTV next month or so, may as well get one now if it's only 80 UKP more, it's not like I'm hard up'. The same story is repeating itself now with the Wii and PS3, in that people arn't willing to pay much over the RRP and would rather just wait.

      There is currently a Wii in the same shop also for sale at 360 UKP (bizzarely enough). Normal RRP is 180 UKP, can't get them in any other shops, it has been there for two weeks just being ignored (frankly even I'm surprised, nearly bought it myself). This is a shop that scalps professionally, right in the middle of London (Zone 1, TCR) and people are not paying it much attention even at Christmas. Looks like people are waiting for more stock (which will invariably be around at the end of Jan). They also have a PS3, but it's an import version (no idea what crazy price it's selling at, or if it's even for sale).

      If there were no scalpers, people would just hire placeholders.

      I doubt that. Only the very wealthy (or incredibly determined and fiscally irresponsible ;-) could afford to have someone do that for a reasonable amount of money - or you'd have to give the job to a person who needed the money so badly most people would be worried about them doing something like scalping i

  2. good article by mgabrys_sf · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I liked the disclaimers on hard-numbers etc, but it did give an idea of what the retail action is as well as the charting of prices. For those who want to wait until prices fall on the PS3, I suggest checking the price curves on the PS2. Here's a hint: They didn't move for over a year. You've got a long - LONG wait. Sony after taking a loss on intitial units will take the profits on the hardware as long as they can when they emerge.

    Still - cheaper than the Atari 2600 / VCS on an inflation adjusted dollar bla bla bla. All I know is it can knock 4000 dollars worth of computers I have sitting in front of me out of the ballpark graphicswise. Once some decent games emerge I'll be heading to the retailer myself to get one. Probably around the time I finish Zelda for the Wii (geez it's huge).

    1. Re:good article by Pluvius · · Score: 3, Informative

      Two reasons why the PS3 won't be like the PS2 in this regard:

      1. $300 for the PS2 was thought of as a bit expensive. $600 for the PS3 is thought of as completely ridiculous. Sony's not going to be able to make money on the PS3 if no one is buying it.

      2. While the PS2 was slightly expensive for a whole load of reasons, about a third of the cost of the PS3 is in one component, the BluRay drive. This is a new technology and like all new technologies, it will drop in cost very rapidly.

      It's true that the price drop likely won't come until the next holiday season, but that's because of the way electronics sales work, not because Sony wants to hold off on it. And when it does come, it will likely be quite large.

      Rob

    2. Re:good article by xero314 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      First of all I never said you couldn't put together a resonable game machine for 3 times the cost of a PS3, just not a comparable one. Even the one you just mentioned has less media capacity, Slower bus speeds, less total processing cores, etc.

      Interesting Idea using the Physics processor (which is basically a GPU dedicated to physics instead of graphics), but could you supply a list of games designed to use that physics processor?

      Now what we need to do is take your cheap game rig (which looks like it will be around $1500 complete) hook it up to an HD TV and then in 5 years compare to quality of games that will run on it vs. the games that will run on the PS3. In 5 years modern games won't even run on the machine you are talking about building, yet PS3 games always will. Games will become more and more optimized for the PS3 hardware where as in the general purpose computer realm developers will expect more powerful machines to be purchased so no need to optimize.

  3. Trying to get a Wii been fun... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 4, Funny

    Last week Amazon had randomly selected interested people to buy a Wii and the odds of getting one was listed. Getting a Wii was 28 to 1. Getting hemorrhoids was 25 to 1. At that point, I wasn't getting a Wii since I knew what I would get first. Now where's that Preparation H?

  4. From a retail standpoint... by borderpatrol · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I work for a major electronics retailer, and we had originally sold our systems in bundles only for approx. $1200 each, with later bundles around the $900 range. We are getting approx. 10 of these bundles being returned a day. We started getting the majority of them after December 20th or so., which would be around the last day to ship from eBay. We are acepting these items back for return, but alot of the folks who bought them on the 17th are stuck with a $1200 store credit.

    All the scalpers are mostly saying that "We didn't need it", "We got 2 for christmas", etc. One guy I talked to was honest and told me he bought it to flip on eBay, but the market fell out. Now he's waiting on a Wii to buy for himself.

    We have lots of PS3s here at the store gathering dust (we got the largest shipment per store of any electronics retailer), people just aren't interested in them at all anymore.

    --
    Yeah I've been starving them, teasing them, singing off key. Me may mah mo, me mo ma me.
  5. Re:The Long Tail of speculation! by harryk · · Score: 3, Informative

    Well... just a couple of thoughts, but before I get into them, let me first say that I agree with you.

    As a someone who was 'marginally' successful at scalping my 2 PS3's, I have to say that given it to do over, I would. I had a good time, and I cannot put a price tag on the 'event' itself. I still walked away with a profit.

    and I to do not understand why Sony (and really anyone else) doesn't just sell the items themselves. But I believe it has alot to do with law than anything to do with business.

    See, it kinda comes down to the same thing with automobiles, atleast here in the states. Technically speaking you, as a customer, cannot buy directly from the manufacturer, for nearly anything. In order for you to purchase item X, the seller has to pay certain fees within it's respective location, think sales-tax etc... . However, getting into a larger issue is that the states (individually) don't want you to be able to buy directly from the manufacturer, because it would cut out their 'inventory' taxes.

    It really comes down to taxing the hell out of the product prior to the sale, as that is REALLY where they make there money. Continuing to take car dealerships as an example, the 'dealer' typically does not actually own the vehicle, oh they bought it from the manufacturer, but they don't have to report the buy until the end of the year. At which time any remaining vehicles (and sometimes this is done quarterly, but we'll continue to use annually) are then taxed an 'inventory' tax, and this is on EVERYTHING, not just the car, but parts as well. Its a ridiculous mess.

    Now, thats for tangible items, talking about the concert is a little different.

    Ticketmaster (again as example) has contracted with nearly every venue out there, to be the sole promoter of any event, which in addition to just about everything else, grants them the right to sale tickets. There use to be a competitor called Ticketron if I recall correctly that did basically the same thing, but at a much lower price. At any rate, a band's promotions and tour organizations are typically in cohoots with Ticketmaster as well, so it benefits everyone but the band who (as I understand it) get very little of the actual 'ticket cost' after all the fees have been added in.

    There is nothing wrong with a band attempting to sale it's own tickets, but then it must also incur all marketing costs, venue rental (assuming one can be found that isn't under ticketmaster's thumb) etc... quite quickly becoming cost prohibitive.

    Ticketmaster is a fucking rip-off! ... They charge you a 'convenience fee' for web-based or phone based orders, in addition to their already inflated ticket pricing. I hate ticketmaster

    --
    think before you write, it'll save me moderator points.
  6. Re:Sounds like a sure thing to me. by poot_rootbeer · · Score: 5, Funny

    But don't worry -- I have 50 times the retail price of a PS3 in a diversified array of index funds, taking advantage of the favorable tax-free and tax-deferred accounts, so I think I've got my investing in order...

    Yeah, but how long is your dick? That's what you're actually trying to inform us all of, no?

  7. Re:Same thing happened with XBox 360 by 0kComputer · · Score: 3, Interesting

    We went through this with the XBox 360, but with more speculators. People were trying to unload those things on eBay for months, finally at prices below retail.

    If I remember correctly the 360's were selling at a premium on e-bay well into the spring. I think that the point of this article is that we've barely passed X-Mas and the prices are already down around retail, which probably implies low demand. In other words, sony is screwed.

    --
    Top 10 Reasons To Procrastinate
    10.
  8. Re:Sounds like a sure thing to me. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    30k? If you're going to brag about having 30k invested in various funds, I hope to god that you're under 20 years old.