What Will Happen in IT in 2007?

An anonymous reader writes "ZDNet's Paul Murphy has set out his IT predictions for 2007. Featured among the completely predictable, OpenSolaris overtaking Linux is apparently inevitable within one year. From the article: 'By the end of the year the OpenSolaris community will be widely recognized as larger and more active than the Linux community.' Is 2007 the year of the OpenSolaris desktop? Other 'inevitables' include Microsoft's success with Vista, the continuing phase-out of Itanium, and the Cell processor powering most of the world's super-computers."

Comments

S.O.S (Same ol' shit)

[rampant mac]

"'By the end of the year the OpenSolaris community will be widely recognized as larger and more active than the Linux community.' Is 2007 the year of the OpenSolaris desktop?"

I could replace the word OpenSolaris with Linux. Or Mac OS X. Or BeOS. Or Amiga.

Face it, Windows is the defacto standard and will be for many, many years. Until businesses change (from running Windows) every other operating system ever created will be second fiddle to the Microsoft monopoly. You know what? Who cares? Do you think Porsche executives stay up late at night thinking "Jesus Christ, Ford has really got us by the balls. How the fuck are we going to compete againt the new Escort?"

I don't care about Microsoft and what they're doing. If it wasn't for their stranglehold on the computing industry, they'd be 10 years behind the technological curve. Natch. They ARE 10 years behind the curve. They just (currently) have the money right NOW to stay relevant.

It'll change. Maybe not now, but soon.

What to say?

[symbolset]

Somebody find this guy a cluestick and beat him with it.

1. Microsoft will make billions on vista. duh.
2. Itanic is still dead. Wow. What a revelation.
3. Cell takes over HPC. Not gonna happen. See GPGPU for why.
4. Slowaris wins out over linux. Literally when pigs fly.

How many trite phrases can you fit in one blog post? "structural convergence" "Web 2" "SOA" "Googlemania" "YouTube"

OK, Here's my set of predictions.

1. Lots of folks will make money -- in old realiable and new creative ways. Some of them will go to jail for it eventually. Most will not.
2. Transcoding video is the killer app for multicore and beyond. The studios aren't coming to market fast enough to deliver the universally playable content that users want, and users are ready to pay thousands for a pc that converts the media they already have.
3. Linux and OSX will continue to take share from the Borg, slowly. More slowly than they should.
4. Vista will be revealed to be as buggy and spyware prone as every other MS OS, for the same reason -- it's developed by the same braindamaged marketdroids who brought us all the others. Microsoft is lucky most of us have no other choice.
5. A great many flackalysts will comment on the invincibility of Vista, Microsoft, IBM, Sun and every other major vendor, and their paid commentary is worth exactly what the company's glossy fliers are -- not even useful as toilet paper.
6. The winner in the Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD wars will be... Monitor makers. Your powerpoint never looked so lovely as it does in 1080p.

Don't like my list? You do better.

Re:dream on

[cpuh0g]

and Solaris specific technologies including ZFS and Dtrace. Linux already has tracing technologies and it has multiple excellent file systems, as well as a roadmap for ext4. Maybe ZFS and DTrace will have some small influence on their evolution, but for the most part, Linux will go its own way there. My prediction: OpenSolaris is going to be a dud.

Get real - Linux tracing capabilities are like primitive caveman tools compared to DTrace. Just because something wasn't developed by the "Linux community" (whatever the hell that means) doesn't mean it is worthless. ZFS is a major evolutionary step forward for file systems. Again, just because it wasn't born and raised as a sourceforge project doesn't mean it must be crap. Take off the blinders, zealot. Great technology knows no religion, it can come from anywhere. Microsoft, Sun, Oracle, et al, are not staffed by idiots (well, at least not in the engineering ranks). Just because they work for "the man" doesn't make their contributions to the field of software any less relevant or useful. Judge the tools by their merits, ignore the religion.

Whether or not OpenSolaris "takes over" in 2007 remains to be seen, but to dismiss the contributions of Sun's engineers (or Microsoft's for that matter) is to ignore history and to ignore some truly innovative contributions to the field.