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Predicting the Internet in 1995

Posted by ryuzaki0 on from the good-old-days dept.

Rexdude writes "Here is a list of predictions from 'The Internet' magazine at the end of 1994. It highlights the major changes and events on the net as it was back then (20 million users only, for starters). Seems a throwback to a relatively more innocent time, when the unwashed masses had not taken over the net as much as today. And look at the reverence accorded to long dead protocols like Gopher!"

9 of 285 comments (clear)

  1. "Internet Yellow Pages" by vistic · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I have a book from 1995 or so called "The Internet Yellow Pages" which seems to claim it lists every site on the Internet. It's about two inches thick and arranged by topic. There's sort of an even mix of Usenet newsgroups, gopher sites, telnet, WWW, listserv, and FTP.

  2. WWW by spellraiser · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Under the list Worst in Net Entertainment:

    The organization of the World-Wide Web. I love the Web, but finding something specific on it is a nightmare. And because the Web is growing by leaps and bounds, I just don't see things getting easier anytime soon.

    How little they knew ...

    --
    I hear there's rumors on the Slashdots
  3. A few gems in there. by Kadin2048 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Well I thought this one was particularly prescient:
    Conflicts between local and global Internet jurisdictions will become more pronounced, especially over censorship issues. How will prosecutors in Tennessee go after posters from Denmark?

    A very good question indeed. Pity he didn't pick prosecutors in New York going after posters from Russia... let's hope the question remains unanswered.

    It was also interesting how many of the 'big questions' in 1994 are now forgotten. Like SLIP versus PPP -- now, most people couldn't even tell you what either of them are. It went from being a big question, to a decided fact, and then faded into irrelevance. Now there's just "the Internet," and most people don't think about how they connect to it with their modem, if they use a modem at all. I wonder if HD-DVD vs BluRay will look the same way, in 10 years of hindsight?

    --
    "Ladies and gentlemen, my killbot features Lotus Notes and a machine gun. It is the finest available."
  4. Is this real? by shumacher · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I was on the internet back then, much as, I suspect, a significant portion of slashdot users. The facts seem about right, but the writing makes me wonder if the article is a hoax.

  5. Quite accurate actualy... by kebes · · Score: 5, Interesting
    I've collected together the "prediction" comments from TFA into a list. Take a look:
    1. A World-Wide Web add-on, whereby category and file size can be assessed prior to file transfer, will be proposed.
    2. Software that handles virtually all network functions via one seamless interface will emerge and begin to dominate the commercial Internet marketplace.
    3. Internet access via ISDN will see a massive growth spurt.
    4. A protocol will be developed for smaller interest groups to form larger common-interest federations.
    5. UFOs will make contact with the Internet.
    6. Cancelbot wars. As spamming and the spam-killing cancelbots become more widespread, people will find their Usenet News messages canceled by someone who simply doesn't like them. Cancelbot software will spread, as people begin editing out opposing views and unfriendly ideas.
    7. More secrets. With more and more commerce being conducted through the Net, encryption will become necessary and common. Clipper will die, and something like PGP or ViaCrypt will be used by most people and businesses.
    8. Two new standards; the first for dial-in users, the second for commerce. Whether it's a SLIP or PPP process that all access providers will adopt, we'll see easy access in easy-to-use products. A standard also will emerge for secure monetary transactions, using some form of encryption, that will make people comfortable sending credit-card information over the wire.
    9. More bandwidth. A new transmission medium will be announced that offers a many-fold increase in speed and savings over the current offerings. An entirely new hardware technology will emerge that will eventually replace the T-3 and fiber-optic lines that carry much of the Net's traffic. Why? Because it must. The Net is overloaded as it is, and necessity has always been the mother of invention. Watch Bell Labs.
    10. Smart searches. The first intelligent agent software packages will emerge, allowing Net users to ask for a specific piece of information like "What is the population of Fiji?" or "How far is Saturn from the Sun?" An agent will go out on the Net , find the information, and return it without the user knowing the source.
    11. ISDN access will become a common standard for small office and home office access, allowing lots of new applications from conferencing to software distribution.
    12. Return of the editors. The CB radio effect; too much noise from too many people; will drive more people to moderated lists and newsgroups.
    13. Digital cash will bring home shopping and pay-per-view to the Internet, as well as new forms of asset protection, money laundering, and tax evasion.
    14. Conflicts between local and global Internet jurisdictions will become more pronounced, especially over censorship issues. How will prosecutors in Tennessee go after posters from Denmark?
    15. On-line politics will take off in a big way, with candidates for the 1996 presidential race making their positions available, soliciting funds, debating opponents, and forging postings from each other. Some campaign somewhere will get in trouble over dirty GIFs.
    16. Cancelbot wars will erupt on some newsgroups. Some disbarred attorneys will unleash a doomsday bot that cancels every Usenet message that does not refer to their green card services.
    17. I have one word for you: connectivity. As the nation unifies into a blob-like Web addict, the roar for faster connectivity will grow deafening. "An ISDN in every wall outlet, and a chicken in every pot!" to quote the precocious William Jennings Bryant.

    What's truly amazing is how accurate they are, overall. (At least in spirit if not in exact details, which is understandable.) For instance:

    • 2. Yes: web browser.
    • 3., 9., 11. and 17. It's an obvious prediction, but bandwidth kept increasing as new technologies were implemented.
    • 4. Not so much a 'protocol' but the internet has been adapted to do just that in many different ways.
    • 6. and 16. Well newsgroups are no
  6. Re:Gopher isn't dead! by digitalfilmmaker · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Gopher rocked. I got on the net in '93 and I loved Gopher. I hated the web until I saw it using Mosaic. But Gopher compared to the early Lynx was no comparison, it was hard to find the links, and it was disorganized. Where Gopher was easy to navigate, and very structured. And then I saw the web with pictures, and I instantly got it.

  7. They were right! by billdar · · Score: 4, Interesting
    From TFA under predictions:

    UFOs will make contact with the Internet.

    They were right!

    --
    I am billdar, and I approve this message.
  8. Good times by Al+Al+Cool+J · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I remember those days well. I had home dial-up at 2400 baud, but it was metered and expensive, and I could only afford 20 hours a month.

    Then I discovered that my old university's library catalog had a BBS dial-in interface for anybody with a valid student number (easily skimmed from numerous sources on campus). Buried in the catalog system was a primitive gateway to the library's gopher pages, and while it wouldn't let you enter an arbitrary URI, I was able to find the right sequence of links to me to any gopher site on the net.

    Then I found an http-gopher gateway that gave me primitive access to the web. From there I found an nttp-http gateway that gave me access to USENET, including all the binary groups. Jackpot!

    Man, I downloaded a lot of free porn that summer.

  9. HD-DVD vs BluRay by skiingyac · · Score: 3, Interesting

    It was also interesting how many of the 'big questions' in 1994 are now forgotten. Like SLIP versus PPP -- now, most people couldn't even tell you what either of them are. It went from being a big question, to a decided fact, and then faded into irrelevance. Now there's just "the Internet," and most people don't think about how they connect to it with their modem, if they use a modem at all. I wonder if HD-DVD vs BluRay will look the same way, in 10 years of hindsight? Considering also how VHS vs. Betamax looks today (I can't remember the last time I bought a VHS tape)... mainly over convenience (no rewinding, etc.) and quality/durability.

    In probably less than 10 years video on demand plus larger capacity flash media will make HD-DVD vs. BluRay irrelevant... also mainly over convenience and quality/durability.

    Convenience - no need to buy/store/insert/etc. a "big" physical disk, if you want to bring it to a friend's house load it on your ~50GB USB stick on your keychain, or just email it to them. Plus all the new gaming consoles are internet-connected and have the power to decode & play video and already cost (or soon will) the same as what a HD-DVD or Bluray player costs... makes you wonder why Sony even bothered with what kind of disk their console uses...

    Quality/durability - if the video is streamed over fiber and not stored locally, a ridiculous encoding bitrate can be used. Nothing to break, if you want to watch the movie, just enter your login and start streaming, or save it on your hard drive.