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Will OLPC's 'Sugar' Have an Effect on Other OSes?
g8orade wonders: "As a recent article notes: for the OLPC, the software is more important than the hardware. A generation or more of children in developing countries will learn about computers using a computer that doesn't use a desktop from either Apple or Microsoft. Will the OLPC software finally be the license-less tool, the uncharged-for value add that raises the bar for other OS makers to compete, given the same hardware?"
Firstly, all of the discussion about the machine influences the minds of hardware and software developers; I expect to see more low-power / long battery life laptops this year; some of the OLPC hardware innovations (LCD display) will be available in next years models.
The software will cause a rethinking on how schoolkids could work with computers, but I don't see a quick adoption in PC operating systems. Applications for collaboration may pick up some of the sugar features; PDAs may pick up features quicker than PCs.
Sugar is such a radical design that it is safe to predict that it won't be adopted for 100%... On the other hand it is safe to predict that some elements will be adopted. Without an in depth review it's hard to tell which features are "good" and likely to be picked up and which are bad and likely to be avoided.
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> OLPC, the software is more important than the hardware.
It always is. You don't buy hardware then try and find something to run on it. (Well, not perhaps unless you're an Apple user).
many years ago apple made a *huge* push in k-12 to get apple stuff out there. why? when these kids graduated, a lot of them had experience with apples and some had experience with only apples. it was a long term investment.
any software that gets uses on the olpc system will not make a difference *today* or *tomorrow*, but down the road it might.
one observation: it will start with educational software. if there are millions of these units out there, there will need to be software for teaching stuff. getting in that market will probably get you into the educational market in developed countries. if you want to see this in action, watch what textbook publishers do to get into the california and texas schools. once in these states, they tend to push into other states from there.
if the olpc project 'works', these children will grow up and this software is going to be what computers are all about.
this could be very interesting for ms and apple.
eric
One, this will be the first ever major large scale distributed computer that goes out the door with linux pre-installed, beating all the big vendors to the punch (nt counting embedded devices or game consoles or cellphones). It's a laptop, with working wireless and mesh networking out of the box, along with being self powered! A lot of serious coolness right there. Two, it will rapidly become the largest used linux distro. Within a few shipments, once you start talking millions at a time, it will surpass Ubuntu and the other "tops on distrowatch" distros.
I think just those two facts indicate that it will have a profound impact on linux and computing in general. Turn it around, how can it not?
OK, now, granted, this exact machine won't be offered for sale to joe average user, but... how it is being made and who is set-up to make the components etc, is either all known now or certainly will be soon. This thing is going to be torn apart, reverse engineered all over, and I expect to see clones hitting the market in various configs. Probably not as cheap as the original project, but pretty close, and they will sell, I know I'd go get one right now if it was there at a sub $300 price point, even with the limitations, it is still pretty neat. We have flash based memeory dropping in price quickly, this could probably be easily upgraded. Just the self powered part is enough of a consumer bump for me compared to the competition.
Yeah, nobody ever learned anything on a computer built before 1990, this thing clearly needs to be more powerful. The kids who end up using this thing will think that it is very real, and it will introduce them to computers just fine.
Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
Go ahead and play. Grab a sugar image and fire up QEMU.
6.02x10^23, baby!
This is my opinion on the subject. Simply my humble predictions: this will be a *very* disruptive technology, changing the world in ways that we are not planning and we cannot for see. Children will use these laptops for their own purposes.
As far as teaching plain ol' reading, writing, and 'rythmetic, a pencil and paper would do just as good a job for a lot less money. As a teaching device, they won't be a smashing success. However, what they will do is usher kids in third world poverty into the global communication revolution.
Have you read about cell phones in rural Africa? These were places so poor that nobody, not business, not the corrupt government, not international aide programs, could justify the cost of wiring these places for phone service and electricity. However, once cell phone towers started going up, poor people started getting a hold of cell phones. Poor farmers were lining up buyers for fruit they were picking in the fields *as they were picking it*, instead of dragging it all the way to market and having it rot in the sun when there were no buyers. African societies have formalized rules of friendship and obligation, and having these fast communication tools allowed people to better utilize their social network and provide for the daily needs.
These OLPC laptops will be used more like cell phones than desktop office computers. Yes, children are going to use these laptops to learn a little at school. But far and away, they will use them to talk to each other via the wireless capabilities. They will talk to people everyday that are more that a day's walk away. They will meet new people in neighboring villages electronically; people they have never met in real life.
All people everywhere provide for their daily needs through their social networks. These rural third world kids will have a much expanded social network on account of these laptop. The tittering, giggling children passing gossip and songs back and forth on these laptops will one day grow up, start families, plant gardens, and conduct business, and uses these communication technologies to improve their lives.
The paper and pencil model prepares kids for the office of the 1950s, where the only problem solving tools are pens and paper, in/out boxes on each person's desk, and vacuum tubes shuttling papers around. Kids of today will make their lives in a new world where we can organize flash mobs in a hour on a cell phone. They need to play with the tools to tomorrow, so they can creatively explore all the yet-unimagined possibilites they will use in the future.
Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.
-- Pablo Picasso
Let's say that kids want to learn how to write software for this platform. Will the tools available be even comparable to what they would expect with any "real environment?"
It comes with Python and PyGTK, with Squeak eToys for younger kids. To me, that seems like a good way for kids to actually learn. What else would you suggest for kids to start with?
It seems far better than the rows and rows of Dell/Windows computers at my kid's middle school where they learn "real world" skills like "typing" and "powerpoint". You are correct that the way US K-12 classrooms use their computers is a waste. That's why this is trying to do something different.
It doesn't matter what interface or OS-type is given to these children. Everything changes constantly anyway - even if you gave them an Apple or MS, 5 years from now, the next MS/Apple release will probably be completely different, and possibly unrecognisable. As long as the OLPC teaches the concepts of basic computer usage, above the actual manipulation of the UI, this PC will be valuable no matter what OS or UI is preloaded onto it. My two pence
Here at Brazil it is on the major press, but they call it the US$100 laptop, instead of OLPC. Maybe you didn't listen about it because it is not aimed to your area.
Rethinking email
Good summaey. One of the characteristrics of lesser developed countries was that information = power. In one country that I was in, one of the greatest secrets was the world price of cotton which was a large multiple of that the statte was paying the farmers. Controlled information made it easy to rig markets as well as elections. Telephone lines tended to be limited and there was frequently an elaborate system of corruption around getting a line. The cell towers jumped over the corruption (mind you many of the companies had to pay $$$ to the politicians to get their licenses approved).
Yes, the OLPC should further improve markets as well as finance for small farmers.
See my journal, I write things there
"I think you're bang on when you say that the OLPC has similar possibilities to change the way people do things in these developing nations, however, I also think it's going to very strongly matter HOW they are used."
Well, unless they are going to be total Nazis about it, teachers really won't be able to control how the kids use it. It's like hiding a comic inside the textbook you're pretending to read. The moment the teacher turns their back, the kids will be IMing each other. There will be some nerd in the class who will hurry and finish all of the assignments so he can continue working on his own little program. They will quickly learn how to multi tasks and pay attention to the teacher and the screen.
I think we both agree that this activity -- children's uncontrolled, creative play and usage -- will really be where the revolution comes from.
"If these computers are used how I suspect they will be, mostly in an institutionalized setting, sitting on desks in schools, I don't think they'll have the desired effect. If the children are allowed, or even encouraged, to take them home, to use them as they were their machines, we will soon see a generation of children who have learned how to exploit this disruptive technology to their own benefit."
Your concern is obviously valid. I got the impression that the "One Laptop Per Child" meant that the laptop would belong to the child. But I really don't know.
I think the real concern would be adults taking the laptops from the children and selling them on the black market. Not every parent is entirely consumed with seeing their child succeed. And there might be relatives or others in the village or wherever who are willing to take advantage of a child in such a way. Maybe it would be safer to keep them at the school.
Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.
-- Pablo Picasso