Will Hybrid Players End the Format War?

flyhalf writes "A new report says that hybrid players will force an early end to the HD DVD/Blu-ray format wars. Some of the projections seem optimistic: $200 hybrid players by 2009 and several manufacturers cranking them out. But reality will likely be different: 'standalone units of any format aren't selling terribly well. Recent research determined that 695,000 consumers owned either a Blu-ray or HD DVD player, but most of those are tied to a console — 400,000 of the 425,000 Blu-ray players sold by the end of 2007 were PlayStation 3s and 150,000 of the 270,000 HD DVD players were Xbox 360 add-ons.' Most importantly, consumers aren't early adopters: 'DVD players needed over a decade to supersede the VCR in the living rooms of the United States and there is little reason to believe that HD DVD and Blu-ray player adoption will outpace that of the DVD.'"

Comments

cart before the horse

[TheSHAD0W]

Why does everyone think people will rush out to buy players when there are only a handful of HD *movies* out on the market?

Re:cart before the horse

[__aaclcg7560]

The same reason that people by the "extended director's final final cut" six months after the standard release. It's one of the reasons why I don't rush out to buy DVDs anymore. I'm sitting on the fence waiting for deep discounts (i.e., less than $10 USD) or the extended version to come out. I'll probably wait until a combo player is available at the right price. I didn't get a DVD player for either the TV or PC until they were less than $40 USD.

source

[Dr Kool, PhD]

Oops, not sure what happened. Here's the source:

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid= 22051

Digital downloads will replace discs

[ConfusedSelfHating]

I think digital downloads will replace physical ownership of discs. It will be a few years before high definition televisions become mainstream affordable. Many people are still using dial up, but how many of them can afford a high definition plasma screen. A few people with high incomes who live in an area without high speed access may be screwed by this, but I think they are far and few between. Portable players will be much better served by a digital download to their hard drive or (more likely) flash memory.

The high definition television downloads through the Itunes service and the Xbox 360 seem to be quite popular. I think we will soon see free downloads supported by ads within the content brought to the customer with torrents.

My guess is the following schedule:

first day: movie theatre release/network television debut

three months: direct download for payment

one year: torrent based delivery with advertisement for free (you download a television show with advertisements).

Walmart will continue to sell DVDs until the number of people who can't download content is small enough to make it unprofitable.

Sure the content industry wants the new disc standards for "unbreakable" copy protection, but I think they'll realize that downloads would make more sense.

Re:Another way to read the numbers

[poot_rootbeer]

HD-DVD is winning the "format war"

HD-DVD players sold: 270,000
Blu-Ray players sold: 425,000
DVD players sold: ~180 million.

I don't think it's HD-DVD that's winning the format war, there.

Re:Most people unaffected ....

[bwintx]

I personally do not mind HD or widescreen. I'm just boggled by people who buy 30-35 inch systems and up. (well, I can see 30 inch maybe.....)

I thought the same until I did a little measuring and a little math. Turns out it takes approximately a 37-inch 16:9 display to give you the same picture height to which you're accustomed with a 27-inch 4:3 display.

Re:Most people unaffected ....

[westlake]

The vast majority of people (in North America at least) are completely indifferent to this format war. People with HDTV represent a fairly smallish chunk of the population. The most of the rest of us neither have, nor are we looking to buy, HDTV. It's an expensive migration path with little perceived benefit

The geek's perception of the home market is dim:

The Retail Advertising and Marketing Association estimates 2.5 million people will buy new televisions before Super Sunday, an increase of 47 percent from last year... The survey did not break down what percent of new televisions purchased are expected to be HDTVs, but retailers reported double-digit increases in sales of the high-end sets in recent months. Super Snap: HDTV Sales Seen Rising

Once they've seen a football game or blockbuster movie in high def, it's tough for many to go back to their analog or digital broadcasts.
Vance Pflanz, owner of Pflanz Electronics, recalls the amazement of one customer who bought a high-def set last fall. He returned to the store a couple of days later to report that he saw a gum wrapper underneath a bench in a World Series dugout on his screen and he could actually read W-R-I-G-L-E-Y-S on the wrapper.
"I think sports probably does more for high-definition programming than any other programming source because when you're watching a football game, you can see the individual blades of grass." HDTV sales fuel demand for high-def programming

Time Warner Cable is hurrying to make sure about 1,000 Triangle customers can bask in the glow of high-definition television during this year's Super Bowl.
Unprecedented demand for high-definition service led to a shortage of set-top boxes and a waiting list of about 1,000 customers.
Since Dec. 1, Time Warner's Raleigh division fielded 11,000 orders for high-definition service, nearly three times the number received in December and January a year ago. Time Warner rushes HD boxes