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Games Analysts Weighs In On Console War
Gamaustra's latest in its 'Analyze This' series asks the question point blank: Which Console Will 'Win' 2007? The regular series puts weighty questions to business analysts who specialize in the games industry, to get a gestalt opinion on what's really going on. The well-respected Michael Pachter, of Wedbush Morgan Securities, had some of the most interesting comments to review. He says that Nintendo will 'appear' to win in 2007 because of its low price and innovative control scheme, but that Sony will be the winner in the long run. From the article: "My best guess is that Sony emerges as the winner of the movie format war in late 2008, and games start looking noticeably better in 2009. That's when Sony starts looking like the winner of the next generation battle. All of this is pretty far out, and a lot can happen with pricing to change things. For example, if Sony gets down the cost curve for Blu-ray and Cell processors, [the PS3] may be below $300 shortly thereafter. It's hard to say that this will happen before 2009, but it could. That would change everything."
Well, if you notice DVD empire has Blu-Ray winning the week by a wide margin, the month by a pretty narrow margin and losing the year; this would be quite likely if Blu-Ray ended up having a much better couple of weeks of releases than HD-DVD and not really suggestive of any larger trend.
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Eproduct wars has far more statistics and many of the stats are not important for sales; most of the sales stats are pretty split and will change week to week.
The real problem with the parents post is he does the google trends incorrectly
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Currently the data is only current up to the end of November 2006
December 2006 and January 2007 may have a greater search quantities for the Wii (as people played it) or any of the systems