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Gates Proclaims Internet to Revolutionize TV in 5 Years
adamlazz writes "With an explosion of online video content on sites like YouTube and Google Video, Bill Gates believes that the Internet will revoloutionize the television within the next 5 years.
'I'm stunned how people aren't seeing that with TV, in five years from now, people will laugh at what we've had,' Gates told business leaders and politicians at the World Economic Forum. "
In other predictions... people will still be downloading music and movies... the RIAA will still be crying... most TV shows will still be craps and the most secure version of windows yet will be just around the corner
That's probably what people said when Gates proclaimed IPTV in 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2007. That's the great thing about predictions, if you make them often enough they must come true...
Slashdot: where don knuth is an idiot because he cant grasp the awesome power of php
My prediction is: Bill will tell us that the next version of Windows after Vista is going to be really secure this time.
When did Gates predict that we were going to beat spam?
Okay, so Gates hired dozens if not hundreds of developers in the 80s and early 90s who were very familiar with the value of the Internet, yet they missed the bandwagon in incorporating TCP/IP features and protocols until it was already commonplace in the market? And all the while, Gates was smugly declaring that he didn't own a television set and had completely disconnected from the Joe Sixpack culture of sponging in front of a boob tube like the rest of America. Yet, somehow he feels he's adequately informed to see the way that the television culture will shift to an Internet culture in a given timeframe? The only reason that this sounds at all plausible is because Apple and Sony and TiVo and Google and other companies already have been working in that direction. Welcome to the 2000s, Bill.
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As a non-US resident, all the good US and UK shows get here with a delay of at least a year. And then there're all the crappy advertisement breaks.
Screw that, I'm downloading all the TV shows I watch. I get it not 24 hours after it's shown in the US/UK, easily spoiler-free (which is important when it comes to high-profile shows), ads free, and with the added benefit of watching it whenever I choose (no TIVO here) and without issues of missing an episode.
I've gotten to the point of not watching TV for nearly 5 years now. I have no idea what's on, and I don't care. I get everything I want. Cable is around $50 here. If I could pay that to do what I do--completely legally--I'd sign up in a blink of an eye.
I can definitely see what Gates is talking about; but I'm afraid the the legality of this will never catch up, as world-wide distribution is still not feasible from an advertising point of view.
There isn't enough bandwidth. If it did become big, ISPs would have a heart attack and choke it all like they do with bittorrent.
it's 'lame-predictions-by-our-glorious-MS-leader'. One of my favourites include:
i n595595.shtml
A spam-free world by 2006? That's what Microsoft Corp. chairman Bill Gates is promising.
"Two years from now, spam will be solved"
e.g. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/24/tech/ma
As a matter of fact, the amount of spam is now bigger than ever before. And there's no seeming end to the trend. However, as Blue Security's Blue Frog clearly displayed, the solution is there and a super powerful company like MS could stop spam if it really was interested. Talk is cheap. The world's richest man can afford it nicely...
Wow. I bet if Bill Gates were to stand on a railroad track and watch a train approaching in the distance for several minutes, he could also conclude that in several minutes more, the train would pass by.
Any high-school kid could also have 'predicted' this, but I suppose they don't get invites to Davos.
Why anybody would want the man's predictions after the embarrassment of "The Road Ahead", I don't know. I think it's the only book to predict the next 30 years of IT history ever to have to be re-released just a year later with major corrections...the second edition mentioned the Internet more than twice.
I believe TV, albeit in a different form, will continue to exist for a long time. What a lot people dont seem to realize is that the lack of interaction and choice with TV can be an advantage. The passivity of the watching experience is actually its best selling point, the ability to arrive home tired from work(and likely to have been in front of a computer) and just sit down and watch mindless junk for a couple of hours. TVs role will diminish but I would be doubtful if pre-programmed channels(even if over the internet) will ever disappear.
Gates lucked into an OS deal where he wheedled and dealed and even tried to shut out a partner.
Then he tucked together pieces he plucked to form Office, where creative MS programmers put it all together.
But then listen to all the BS that came out of BG since and between Cairo, ME & CE, etc & the constant use of similar adjectives used to describe the next MS product or version, and what floats high on the surface of the water?
"S--t", thats what.
Why does ANYONE take this guy seriously? At this point all he is, is a rich philanthropist!
Sheesh.
This is Slashdot. When did we start caring about proof when it involves bashing Microsoft?
The Internet is going to revolutionize everything in five years. Again. Every five years. And again.
What's the story here? That Gates has little more to do than repeat the obvious?
Y'know, I still don't see flying cars anywhere near. On the other hand, it will be a cold day in Hell before I start paying attention to what Gates has to say about the Internet. His company almost missed it. MSN, hah.
"I think it would be a good idea!"
Gandhi, about Internet Security
This prediction is particularly stupid because it's not that clever. We already have iTunes and TV shows, streaming devices, and so forth. The revolution is already here. It's odd to see this Gates prediction being reported in the media as if it is groundbreaking or forward-thinking.
"Sufferin' succotash."
Every experimental "interactive" tv service has failed despite being wildly popular with the participants for the first few weeks. After that interest fails. Much of the time people want animated wallpaper not something that has to be attended to at regular intervals like a demanding pet.
Who cares what the specifications are? I'll consider the revolution at hand when cable and satellite TV are no longer viable business models. Until then, IPTV is just an offshoot.
Always going forward, 'cause we can't find reverse.
And so on. It's really nothing more than commercialism interfering with content. You want to watch something, so people use that as leverage to try and force you to listen to their sales pitch. The reason that it works is they can slip in under most peoples' tolerance level which is set by how badly they need a mindnumbing experience (e.g. "Oh, GOD. I'll listen to this stupid commercial because I'm tired and I don't want to go to the video store or read a book and fine the commercial will end in 60 seconds and by the next one I will have simmered down and be willing to tolerate it again in exchange for my mindnumbing.")
I'm not sure how any advertiser can be a good person, since they realize they are deliberately finding the maximum level of push that the average person can sustain before they become annoyed enough to shut out the marketing mechanism completely. (In other words, TV has evolved to provide the maximal amount of "tell you what to do, what you need, and how to spend your money" possible without losing the majority of the audience. That's not a pleasant thought. But back to M$, that's the same thing they do. Lace the maximum amount of "buy our $hit into each product" that you will tolerate. "Oh, wouldn't you like to use this integration feature with our other product?" "Wouldn't you like to do this which requires only just a tiny bit more money for a Professional upgrade, and so on." It's all crap.
In 10 years, the concept of "channels" as we know it will be supplanted by "shows" and "collections of shows."
95% of Americans who pay for the privilege will be able to watch "Any show at any time" on their TVs, and will get a listing of shows they are likely to enjoy. The channels that do remain will be "playable on demand" for up to a week or more through your cable system or DRM-controlled DVR box, unless the DRM restrictions say otherwise.
Video rental will be dead: Almost every movie or TV show ever pressed to DVD will be available for watching "on-demand." Disney and its famous "Disney Vault" may be an exception.
You will be able to watch "local" community-access shows from anywhere in the country, for a fee. High school sports will be the first to smell the bucks but eventually everything will be available.
In 20 years this will be worldwide among open, internet-connected countries.
The one missing piece:
You still won't be able to legally get blacked-out NFL football games due to DRM.
The one major flaw:
The "big boys" will make sure this only happens once they find a workable DRM.
Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.