Newton's Ghost Haunts Apple's iPhone

PetManimal writes "David Haskin has looked back at why the Newton failed in the early PDA market, and warns that Apple may be setting itself up for a similar failure with the iPhone. The iPhone shares with the Newton a hefty starting price, and Joe Public may not be so keen on the cost, as recent survey data suggests. Moreover, the iPhone will have to deal with two additional factors that were not issues for the Newton: Competition, and wireless service providers: 'Besides overcharging for iPhone, Apple faces significant competition, something it didn't face in 1993 when it launched Newton. And you can bet that competition from the likes of Samsung and LG will both be good (although probably not as good as iPhone) and most assuredly cheaper... I'm more convinced than ever that, after an initial frenzy of publicity and sales to early adopters, iPhone sales will be unspectacular. If Apple doesn't respond quickly by lowering the price and making nice to AT&T..., iPhone may well become Apple's next Newton.'"

Comments

Re:The iPhone is going to fail.

[4iedBandit]

It is too proprietary. It will never compete with the shear amount of software that is available for pocket pc's, and Palms.

You mean like the shear amount of software available for the Nokia e61, for which I plunked down $500 to get a non-hobbled-by-a-US-carrier version? Are you aware of how much crap software there is out there? When I got the e61 I too though as you do, "Boy, I'm going to be able to get all this cool stuff." Well, not even 6 months later guess how much cool software I have put on it?

Zero. You know why? A lot of apps are poorly implemented. Why should I spend $5-$15 on crappy software? It's just not worth it. Free software? I'm sorry, just because it's free doesn't mean it's worth it. The built in web browser is about as good as I've seen. The IM products are crap. Games? I'm much happier with a PSP. Music? My iPod is way better.

"OMG I CAN'T LOAD ANY SOFTWARE I WANT!" The people who are going to buy the iPhone don't want just any software. They want software that's going to work. Software they don't have to worry about. Software that's not going to crash their phone. In my history, I bought one (1) app for my P800 which was useful. That app was probably the reason that phone crashed two to three times a week. (It's really inconvienient to have your phone crash and you don't notice, even more inconvienient that the crash screen turns the backlight on full and drains the battery dead.) I've bought none (0) for my e61. Fortunatley the built in apps are adequate.

Argue all you want, Apple knows interface design like no one else. They know how to "just work." Steve's right. That keyboard on my e61? It's just in the way when I'm not using it. Takes up space when I want to surf the web. And lets be honest here, how many people are going to type a novel on a thumb pad? Yes I know some people who in fact have, but I won't. Show me a keyboard when I need it, and get it out of the way when I don't.

Everyone thinks there has to be some kind of "killer app" for the iPhone. Was no one paying attention when Steve said the killer app is making phone calls? If the phone isn't good at that, it doesn't matter what else it can do. Visual voice mail alone has got me thinking I may buy it when it comes out. I won't buy unseen though. I'll wait to see reports of battery life, signal and sound quality first. However I've twice demonstrated that I'll pay money to get the devices I want (Had a Sony P800, and now a Nokia e61 both purchased unlocked and gray-market because US carriers didn't offer them). If the iPhone delivers on being a great phone first, and a fantastic interface for everything else second, I'll gladly be part of the first 1%.

All the whinging about no 3G, my God people, are you all idiots? Is 3G anywhere near widely deployed in North America? So why provide a phone with a feature that you can't use? 3G in Europe? Where you not paying attention? They already said they would be doing a 3G version for other markets.

Will business users switch? Probably not. But consider this, the iPhone is going to work with any POP mail service. If your corporate exchange servers already do POP, why pay more for some other service to get your email to your phone?

The iPhone is already rocking the world, and it's not even released yet. Interface matters. The iPod demonstrated that to the world. If the iPhone continues that trend, I will be a very happy Apple investor indeed.