Best Presentation on Software Business and OSS

stephe writes "Brent Williams presented 'Open Source Business Models: A Wall Street Look at a Wild 2006 and the Prospects for Even More Fun in 2007' at EclipseCon last Tuesday. Brent is (temporarily) an independent equity research analyst, who moved to Wall Street after 20 years in the software trenches. He starts with a tear-down of the Oracle Linux debate and the Microsoft Novell deal. I especially like his taking apart the commoditization myth and his observations around interface standards versus standards of implementation. He graciously allowed me to post the slides on my blog. They're getting a lot of interest from the open source business crowd, and I thought the Slashdot crowd would want to see them as well. Enjoy."

Comments

First thought from first slide...

[Zapraki]

Can I really take the guy seriously when he's using a hotmail account?

Re:First thought from first slide...

[Provocateur]

Don't be such an email nazi. He may have just decided to keep one email ID that didn't cost anything or force him to remember yet another password or maintain yet another mailbox free from spam.

But if he uses Outlook, hand me that pitchfork will ya, you hold the torch...

Re:premium brands ignoring price competition?

[Kjella]

"- Oracle ignores price competition between MySQL and PostgreSQL."

This is not the case at all. In the last few years, MySQL has matured and more people have found out about PostgreSQL (in fact, PostgreSQL is probably the best kept secret OSS has to offer - it has a kick ass feature set and it's completely and utterly free).

How are those two statements at odds with each other? Oracle doesn't want to be seen as a price competitor, they want to get customers who think their 10,000 row DB is "enterprise" and those who think "you get what you pay for".

They say that if you make a RFQ and get one offer for $100k, three for $10k and one for $1k, they're likely to drop the $100k (too expensive) and the $1k (must have missed something). MySQL and PostgreSQL score about 10x as high on the WTF scale to most PHBs. If anything is free* in their world, they expect a bait-and-switch like *upgrade now to $foo pro for the good features, that was just the hook.

Postgres

[Savage-Rabbit]

This is not the case at all. In the last few years, MySQL has matured and more people have found out about PostgreSQL (in fact, PostgreSQL is probably the best kept secret OSS has to offer - it has a kick ass feature set and it's completely and utterly free). For a large amount of enterprise stuff, PostgreSQL is more than adequate and as a bonus, does not treat your data as garbage.

Anyone considering building some sort of database application has the option of spending a couple months (with change left over) from the money they would spend on an Oracle license, and invest it in learning PostgreSQL. At the current rate of developement, it will in all likelihood solve any future problem they could have. For free. No worries about licenses. Anyone in a startup where money is tight and time is cheap should be considering PostgreSQL. That's only partly true. PostgreSQL is a nice database for small businesses or even in larger companies or corporations for small to medium projects. You can save a bundle on Oracle licenses if you use Postgres wisely just like you can save a bundle on Red Hat Server licenses if you use Centos wisely. I'm not even going to get into the debate as to why I'd choose Postges over MySql since that discussion has a disappointing habit of degenerating into a flamewar. I have seen Postgres used numerous times in the Corp world and where it failed was usually in projects that went from small to very large and highly loaded with great speed. Basically it did not scale well. The problem was not so much the issue of missing features in Postgres since the feature set is growing at a steady pace, the problem was with stability. As the projects grew larger, the traffic went up and it became imperative that the database be available 24/7 with next to 0 down time Postgres didn't work out all that well because of stability issues. This will change as Postgres matures but at the moment developers should think hard about when they use Postgres instead of Oracle or some other high end database. In some situations it will work in others you will end up porting your Postgres system to a proprietary database after getting burned and changing databases in mid stream can be a bitch. You might want to do that because the proprietary product is more stable but even if it isn't the most important reasons would be that it comes with guaranteed vendor support and because there are plenty of Oracle Certified mercenaries you can bring in to help you an emergency. When you are loosing the equivalent of the price of a new server every few of hours or so because your database is down, the idea of throwing hardware, Oracle consultants and Oracle licenses at the problem, becomes less of an issue. In the end I think Postgres and other similar OSS database have the potential to do to the database market what Linux did to the *nix server market, it will eat up the low end niche of the market, especially when it grows the kind of support base Linux now has. At the moment the only support I can get for Postgres databases where I live and work is by advertising for people with experience and hope somebody bites, there are four companies here that hire out Oracle specialists as consultants and all offer 24/7 emergency services. The prices are obscene but it's comforting to know the option is available

As always this is my experience, your milage may vary.