AV Software Isn't Dead, But It's Not Healthy
dasButcher writes "Is a conventional signature-based antivirus technology dead? Trend Micro CEO Eva Chen says no, but more is needed. Her answer: reputational analysis. Not a bad idea, but many have tried and failed to make this type of approach work. We've seen it all before: RBLs, integrity grading, etc. What will make this different? If we're not careful, Trend Micro might give us all a bad Web reputation.
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I sure am not a big security expert, so forgive my n00bish words here.
I don't remember where, but at some point I read somebody, probably a sys-admin, saying that if you really want security then what you need to do is disable all the things you do not need. Not by default to allow everything and then pick the things you do not want, but go the other way around and make the default to not allow anything and then enable the things you need.
I guess this is one of the reasons I like Gentoo so much, I know everything that is installed on the system and I can remove it if I don't like it.
I don't like to install all kinds of things that I do not know what is and do not know if I can trust. The more things I have installed the more vulnerabilities I also have.
One of my friends once ran a version of Windows XP that he had pretty much scraped everything of that didn't need to be there, I think he was a lot more secure than he would have been had he filled his computer with all kinds of AV and anti-malware programs, some of them seem to be causing more problems than they solve anyhow.
Maybe Computers will never be as intelligent as Humans.
For sure they won't ever become so stupid. [VR-1988]
#1. There is no security without physical security.
... rather long. Follow along for a moment.
#2. Run only what you absolutely need.
#3. Run it with the minimum rights possible.
The reason that Trend Micro's "new" approach will fail is
a. Vulnerability is found and exploit is written.
b. Exploit needs to be distributed.
c. Exploit is distributed via a quick spam flood - they have no protection against this.
d. Exploit is posted on a web site - how do the bad people drive traffic to that site?
e. They use a compromised site. They hide the exploit in a directory that robots.txt says not to scan. Either Trend Micro violated robots.txt or it cannot find the exploit.
f. So Trend Micro will have to violate robots.txt and that behaviour should be noticeable. So the bad guys would hide that file from something that looks like a webcrawler that doesn't respect robots.txt.
And we're back at the beginning.
... otherwise there would be no syphilis in the world.
Seriously, there is a pretty direct analogy between (digital epidemiology, computer viruses) and (real epidemiology, real germs). If there were a simple answer to the digital problem, it's a good bet that some population or other would have adopted the analogous strategy to the real epidemiology problem.
STDs offer a good analogy for digital viruses with a Trojan-style (no snickers, please) strategy. In both cases sharing of {data|fluids} yields immediate benefit at some risk. In both cases, populations have adopted reputational strategies to avoid spreading/contracting viruses. In neither case do those strategies work.
Even with near-perfect "antivirus software" (the antibiotic penicillin), the old monsters of syphilis and gonorrhea still remain on the planet, and penicillin-resistant strains have even evolved. One problem is that reputations are hard to establish and not necessarily accurate; another is that most humans tend to discount future risks in favor of immediate benefits.
Interestingly, the reason that the traditional venereal diseases are treated with penicillin injections (and not an oral course) is that, statistically, patients are unlikely to finish the oral course -- a properly completed oral course of penicillin is as effective as the traditional three injections. There is perhaps a lesson to be learned there about how effective corporate data-hygiene strategies are likely to be.
It probably won't show up in the botnet stats even once Vista is ubiquitous, though, as you still have to allow the user to install arbitrary binaries, which means the attacker just has to fool them. And they've had a lot of practice with that over the last few years. There IS no technical solution to this, unless you completely close the ecosystem - prevent the user installing arbitrary executables, shut down the internet as we know it -- or find an infalliable on-demand method of deducing what a given program is going to do; and if you've got a solution to the halting problem, I'm sure we'd ALL like to hear it ;)
Everything I needed to know about life, I learnt from Blake's Seven