MS Says Vista Selling At Twice XP's Pace

Several readers made us aware that Microsoft said today that it sold more than 20 million Windows Vista licenses in the first month after the OS's general debut on January 30. This compares to 17 million licenses of XP sold in the first two months after its release. (Just a coincidence the announcement came out a day after this community's speculation, surely.) Most of the coverage of this story, picked up from Reuters, looks like it follows an MS press release. The Associated Press dug deeper, noting that since XP's release the overall PC market has grown by almost a factor of 2, so it would be a surprise if Vista didn't do twice as well: "...51 million PCs were sold to consumers worldwide in 2002; this year... 96 million consumers will buy a computer." Also, Microsoft's 20 million figure includes the backlog of upgrade coupons bundled with XP computers sold since last October.

Comments

Misleading

[rackhamh]

But given that the personal computer market has nearly doubled since XP launched, Vista sales "probably should be more," said Michael Silver, vice president of research at Gartner, a technology research group.

In summary: computer sales up; consumers forced to adopt Vista. Microsoft chuckles gleefully.

Re:Misleading

[rackhamh]

Consumers don't have to rationalize buying Vista. If they're buying a new computer, they don't have a choice. A telling quote from the article:

Microsoft declined to break out the number of Vista copies sold at retail, though it has said in the past that 80 percent of Windows revenue comes from sales to PC makers.

Eventually we'll all (those of us running Windows) upgrade, but my sense of things right now is that most XP users are waiting until software availability forces the upgrade.

Re:Misleading

[spisska]

Consumers don't have to rationalize buying Vista. If they're buying a new computer, they don't have a choice. A telling quote from the article:

"Microsoft declined to break out the number of Vista copies sold at retail, though it has said in the past that 80 percent of Windows revenue comes from sales to PC makers."

What's more is that the figures suggest that 20 million copies of Vista are currenty being used, rather than having been shipped to OEMs and sitting on shelves. I would suspect that the actual number of Vista licenses in the wild are substantially lower, to the point of embarassment for Microsoft.

Personally, I've bought my last Microsoft license. At the same time I realize that Business runs on Microsoft, Business accounts for the lion's share of Microsoft licenses, and I've yet to see Business in general, or any single business in particular, leaping towards Vista. Most, including the one I work for, are waiting until it is absolutely necessary (certainly not before SP1) before even contemplating a widespread rollout.

The numbers are nonsense and reflective only of PCs in the pipeline (or whatever other figures can be found in Redmond-area proctological exams), not in deployment. In 12 months, Vista will be unavoidable but for now it is a non factor. As far as Business goes, it's still more important to make sure your widget works with MS Windows 2000 than with Vista.

MS has to show good sales figures to shareholders

[EmbeddedJanitor]

Anybody that didn't buy a Vista license would, most likely, have bought an XP license if Vista dis not exist. In other words, Vista has not really increased MS revenues.

The big sell is to MS shareholders. Somehow MS must convince the shareholders that the $5bn spent on Vista is going to be a worthwhile investment.

Re:Well Long Upgrade Cycle.

[kextyn]

Wait a minute. Did you just say Me was "good enough"?! Are you nuts?

XP was a pretty big improvement over what was available prior to it. Most home users were running 98 or Me. The jump from 98/Me to XP was much greater than XP to Vista in my mind.

Why Upgrade when you can take the Souped-Up XP?

[Rachel Lucid]

My Dad's new 'Vista-Ready' machine came with XP, and we're KEEPING it on XP precisely because this this thing is a graphical dream on it. It's got an nVidia card, sweet processors, ability to support two 22" widescreen monitors... all for under $1000, because it's 'merely' an XP machine, albeit a Vista-capable one.

If this is their idea of 'Vista-Capable', why would I want to go to an operating system where these awesome specs are merely ADEQUATE?

Re:I thought it was....

[HermMunster]

It certainly is exaggerated and is being used for stock speculation. They are telling the world they are selling twice as good to get that stock up. It'll go up and then fall back down as the real numbers rear their heads. I've done my part and continue to do so in telling customers about the spying and the other DRM/CRM implemented into Vista and how Microsoft is now hostile towards its customers. I describe it as an example with Walmart entering your home to search your belongings to ensure that you have not stolen anything from their store. Most people understand that their computer is an extension of their homes and that they certainly would not let the government enter without warrant and when I then tell them that they would certainly not allow a private entity to enter they agree wholeheartedly.

Sheesh, what does it take to understand that Microsoft is doing the equivalent of searching your home when they enter your computer and search. No, they don't have the right to enter my computer or home to search for any reason. If they feel I have stolen from them let them hit the courts and sue/arrest me. They'll find I am above board. But the sentiment stays. Hit the courts and do it legally. Even the police can't keep entering your home over and over to search. If they do it is harassment. The problem is that people don't know that or don't initially understand it as a search and seizure procedure.

Let me repeat. They have no right to enter my home/computer/business to do anything unless I give them permission even if it is to protect their IP. If they think I am stealing they can hit the courts up and to through due process to convict. I say this even though I am 100% legit on all copies of Windows. You would not let Walmart enter your home or business to search for goods that might be stolen and hence you would not let, should not let, Microsoft do the same.