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Vista Taking a Nibble Out of Apple in OS Wars?

PetManimal writes "Despite all of the positive buzz about the Mac operating system and the 'halo effect' of iPod sales, Mac OS X market share actually dropped last month, reports Computerworld: 'The share of PowerPC-based Macs fell ... from 4.29% in February to 3.94% in March. That dip was not fully offset by an increase in Intel-based Mac hardware, leading to a overall net decline in Mac share of 0.3%, to 6.08% in March.' Meanwhile, Vista is rising, the article says, with just over 2% of computers connected to the Internet using the new Windows OS. The figures are from a company called Net Applications, which collects its data from the browsers of visitors to its network of 40,000+ Web sites."

30 of 406 comments (clear)

  1. pfft by djupedal · · Score: 5, Insightful

    One word - 'LEOPARD'

    If there is a down blip, it's due to people waiting for Leopard, not because of vista, and ho boy...wait 'till you see her hit the track :)

    1. Re:pfft by Overly+Critical+Guy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Not to mention the unreliability of relying on web browser stats to determine OS market share. How about we go by, I don't know, actual sales figures to determine market share? Call me crazy.

      --
      "Sufferin' succotash."
    2. Re:pfft by BKX · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You're forgetting that the total number of computers is rising. If Apple sales were to stagnate, their overall market share (as a percentage) would drop even if no Apple users switched to something else. Under the GP's analysis, we would expect that the market share (again, as a percentage) would drop while people wait for Leopard.

    3. Re:pfft by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      If what you're saying were true, the numbers would stagnate, not drop.

      No... He's saying that people who would buy Mac are simply waiting, not buying any Mac at all. While people who waited for Vista (yup, there are certainly a few that are excited by DRM and slowlyness) are buying PCs now.

      So Mac sales, according to him, are taking a hit for people are simply not buying Macs at the moment. And he expect to see a rise in Mac sales as soon as Leopard comes out. That's how I understood his post...

    4. Re:pfft by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The stats come from website logs, which is basically snake oil as far as accurate numbers goes. The decline could be something as simple as Apple developers tweaking Safari's caching parameters. Since Intel Macs already have the latest version of Safari, if the latest version is more efficient at caching resources, that means that HTTP traffic from PPC Safari users will slowly decline as they upgrade to the latest version of Safari, while Intel users are already at that level.

      Or it could be something completely different - HTTP traffic analysis is useless for determining browser/os market share and the littlest thing can skew the numbers wildly.

    5. Re:pfft by HairyCanary · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Sales figures don't tell you the whole story either, so keep looking. If Mac users keep their machines for five years on average, versus say two and a half years average for Windows PC users, then Macs could have half the sales rate of PC's and still be staying even with market share. What you want to reliably assess is installed base.

    6. Re:pfft by syphax · · Score: 5, Insightful


      The criticism about sales vs. avg. machine lifetime is valid.

      In the auto industry we look at UIOs- "units in operation" - that is available via state vehicle registration records. On the whole, the data is pretty good.

      Of course, we don't need to register our computers (yet), so we don't have that option.

      Assuming the data isn't crap, I noticed that Apple has been gaining market share at an average of 0.34% a month since last September, until the 0.3% dip this past month. They went from 4.3% to 6.4% pretty quick, and it's notable b/c that's switching vendors (unlike Vista, which is mostly same vendor, different product). What will be interesting is the next couple of months- was this just a blip? What happens when Leopard comes out?

      I'd put my money on 'blip'. I hereby forecast continued growth for Apple, though maybe averaging 0.1-0.2% per month unless they come out with some kickass hardware soon.

      And no, I'm not a fanboy.

      --
      Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Stories
    7. Re:pfft by diamondsw · · Score: 5, Insightful

      And you really should be comparing market segments. After all, every Windows-based cash register, eTicket terminal, etc counts towards its market share. I'd rather see market share in segments - home, education, enterprise, utility, etc.

      --
      I don't know what kind of crack I was on, but I suspect it was decaf.
    8. Re:pfft by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      If they only looked at a few sites, you may have a point. But taking numbers from 40,000 sites it would be hard to easily "skew the numbers wildly".

      That assumes that the only way in which you can skew the numbers is site-specific. I already gave an example where this is not true. Did you even bother to read all the way through my comment, or did you read the first bit, get offended because you enjoy looking at your web stats and feel the feel to reply without reading the rest of my comment?

      Please, read RFC 2616. Read the things people who know HTTP inside out have written about web stats (including some of the web stats application developers). Fire up a network monitor and observe the traffic yourself.

      HTTP traffic does not provide enough information to derive browser or OS market share. A million people can load your website without generating any HTTP traffic that you can observe. Or a single person can account for a million hits. There is no 1:1 correspondence, and there is no mechanism for determining how far out your numbers are.

    9. Re:pfft by Angostura · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Because you want to run OS X most of the time, but need to run Windows on occassion?

  2. Re:Leopard is coming out by Carrot007 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    > Aren't most Mac users waiting for leopard to come out

    What, waiting for Leopard before browsing the web again? I you are goin to make an argument at least make one that makes sence.

    Maybe like which web sites are the stats generated from, maybe those are somewhat windows biased?

    --
    +----------------- | What is the question!
  3. Very misleading by apachetoolbox · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The tone of this article is very misleading.

    I do a lot of consulting work and it's very hard to get a new PC for someone that doesn't come with Vista. They don't want Vista but they have no choice. Then we get to deal with figuring out what software they need works and what needs patches and what just plain doesn't work and never will.

  4. Re:2%? by casualsax3 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    You're suggesting (seriously?) that you don't expect Vista to show up on more than 2% of desktops? I would like some of whatever it is you smoked this afternoon.

  5. 0.3% well within margin of error.... by topham · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The actual decline they have reported is 0.3%; which I'm sure is well within there margin of error.

    Which means, Apple's share hasn't changed. Despite the fact there are less PowerPC machines than before.

  6. 2%? Seems high. by Conception · · Score: 2, Insightful

    According to this: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0933606.html there are about a billion internet users worldwide. 2% would be 20 mil. MS claims to have shipped 20 million, or so, copies of vista. So that means that every copy they have shipped, even on new computers at stores, has been sold and brought up on the internet pretty much. This seems... fishy.

    1. Re:2%? Seems high. by stratjakt · · Score: 5, Insightful

      One corporate copy could easily account for thousands of machines.

      --
      I don't need no instructions to know how to rock!!!!
  7. Oh please by MBCook · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Can we get real? Apple's market share dropped for one month? Let's see what could cause that:

    1. People waiting for Leopard
    2. People waiting for CS 3 to come out (this was February after all)
    3. Vista's sales jump (in both hardware and software) from heavy promotion and tons of news coverage

    There. That took about 3 seconds to think up. When Vista has displaced Apple for 3 months in a row, we can talk. Until then this is stupid hype designed to make Vista look like it isn't a dog sales wise (when from MS you would think it would have started selling like Windows 95 did). Plus, this is the PowerPC share that dropped. They are old and slow as hell (I'm using one). Now that CS3 is out (and was about to come out by the time they did this survey) you'd be an IDIOT to buy one. So the Intel side didn't jump up. People are probably waiting for CS3 (to put their requisitions in at work), or for Leopard (coming any time now, June 21st at the latest).

    Non-story.

    --
    Comment forecast: Bits of genius surrounded by a sea of mediocrity.
    1. Re:Oh please by lostboy2 · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Worse still, Hitslink (the app/service that generated these statistics) does not measure sales or even overall usage -- it only measures hits to websites that use Hitslink.

      From Net Applications' site:

      There is nothing to install. You simply paste a small piece of HTML code on each page you wish to track statistics on.
      Ok. What kind of code is it? JavaScript? What if I regularly browse with Java and JavaScript disabled?

      Or even simpler, what if I don't browse websites that use Hitslink? 40,000 websites is really not that much. Pandia notes that one estimate of the number of active websites in 2006 was 47 million (using the low end). Assuming that's true, 40000 websites is only 0.08% (less than one-tenth of one percent). That's hardly enough data to accurately portray what's going on worldwide, in my opinion, especially if the sites used to generate the stats are Windows- or Microsoft-centric.
  8. Statistics 101 by Nasarius · · Score: 5, Insightful

    A drop in overall percentage doesn't necessarily mean a drop in users. It could easily mean that Windows is growing, and the Mac market is stagnating before a new release.

    --
    LOAD "SIG",8,1
  9. Not the point by feranick · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Yes, but that is not the point. You expect the percentages of PowerPC-based Macs to fall, but percentage of new Intel-based should increase of at least the same amount, which does not seem to be the case, according to the article.

  10. Re:PowerPC Macs? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    The share of PowerPC-based Macs fell, though, from 4.29% in February to 3.94% in March. That dip was not fully offset by an increase in Intel-based Mac hardware(my emphasis), leading to a overall net decline in Mac share of 0.3%, to 6.08% in March.

  11. Bogus data by geekwithsoul · · Score: 5, Insightful

    FTA:

    "Net Applications collects its data from the browsers of visitors to its network of more than 40,000 Web sites."

    Any statistics that purport to show "usage" based on browser hits is inherently suspect, especially if the stats are used to imply they have some larger meaning. If they can answer these questions, I'll believe them:

    - How are the servers of these "40,000 webs sites" identifying unique users? (server logs, scripts, or both? How long are the sessions they are looking at?)
    - Are they looking at number of hits, unique user views, or what?
    - How well can they ensure that machines are not being counted multiple times?
    - Which sites are included? Are both microsoft.com and apple.com sites included? What about msn.com or mac.com? How many tech-savy sites are included and how many might-as-well-be-AOL newbie sites?
    - Are the results from some sites weighted above or below other sites?

    I'm not saying they haven't taken all these things into account, but publishing them (or referencing them by a third-party) without including how the data was gathered makes this all just so much noise.

  12. Re:PowerPC Macs? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    You are fucking retarded and so are the ass-clowns that moderated your message up. There is no discrepancy and if you had read THE BLURB you would know that. My first thoughts were the same, but my brain functions for longer than a microsecond on each topic and actually bothered to READ THE SECOND SENTENCE.

    I can't believe you'd take the time to write out a full post but not take the time to read a single paragraph. People like YOU contribute nothing but entropy! DIAF.

  13. Re:Are mac sales lower than their market share? by PitaBred · · Score: 3, Insightful

    When you get your third new PC, put Ubuntu on the old one. See how snappy it feels, and how long it stays good. I know that my "old" P4 based desktop is kinda slow by modern standards, but damn if it's not fast as hell under Linux, especially since Linux doesn't become useless when you're running a heavy processing job, you can still surf the web or type up a document while something else is processing. The whole thing just feels snappier, even on older hardware.

  14. Re:ATTN: SWITCHEURS! by Peter+Cooper · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Firefox is pretty good on OS X. There seem to be a lot of whiners about it, but I have it running almost constantly with varying numbers of tabs and it's always worked very well. I certainly prefer it to Safari or Opera. Who cares about native widgets? I'm looking at the Web, not a bunch of Apple themed Web pages.

  15. Yep... by pb · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Even if we do assume that their figures are incredibly accurate, this is how it shakes out:

    Windows: +0.20
    Linux: +0.15
    Mac: -0.30


    Not a huge deal, although I think the Linux uptick is a bit of an unreported story here. Also, what's with the share of Windows NT growing from 0.71% to 0.80% (the only other MicroSoft OS showing growth)? That's like a 12.7% increase for an ancient OS! So, yeah, given that anomaly, I'm somewhat disinclined to give their figures that much weight.

    --
    pb Reply or e-mail; don't vaguely moderate.
  16. Re:Leopard and Parrelels by catbutt · · Score: 2, Insightful

    You really think a significant number of people are using parallels to web surf? And if they are -- running OS X but actually choosing to do basic stuff like web surfing within a virtualized XP -- that actually says to me that they prefer XP, and they are being correctly counted.

  17. Apple has to offer a decent mid tower. by guidryp · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I never contend that apple has to sell OSX for any old box, as that would be business mistake for them, but if they aren't going to sell OSX, then they need to offer more hardware choices.

    Mac market share is stable at about the 6% mark. These are the people who like integrated monitors or the toy mini. Pro just won't matter for market share as it is ultra high end.

    If Apple actually has the slightest interest in increasing market share beyond the current they have to offer what mainstream buyers want and are used to. A decent mid size tower at an affordable price.

    I actually want to buy a Mac. I use Linux/Solar/Windows at work and would like a decent Unix workstation at home, but don't find Linux polished enough (my desktop at work runs Redhat).

    What is stopping me is the lack of decent midrange hardware without integrated monitor. This gap has to be obvious to Apple execs, perhaps they are moving the company in the direction of devices and away from computer and don't care about computer market share.

    I will buy a new computer in the next 6 months. No midrange tower or equivalent and it will be another PC and that will be my computer for the next 4 or 5 years.

  18. This reminds me of the Wrath of Khan by hey! · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I went out to see it with some of my MIT buddies; we weren't expecting much after ST1, so it waay beat the expectation game. One of the guys gushed afterwards, "That was exponentially better than the last movie."

    All being geeks, we turned and started at him. "Ummm," I said, raising one eyebrow, "you do realize you are extrapolating from only two data points?" He turned red as a beet.

    But apparently industry analysts have no mathematical shame.

    There's a million reasons why market share could bounce down or up in single month. Maybe people were waiting for Vista machines with more memory. Maybe the manufacturers gave some nice rebates. Maybe a couple of big corporate customers decided to by a boatload of vista boxes for testing. Maybe somebody counted wrong.

    Wake me up when you have the quarterly figures. No, make that semi-annual.

    --
    Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  19. Re:ATTN: SWITCHEURS! by kinabrew · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I use Firefox on OS X, and my main issue is that it doesn't feel like a "proper Mac application". Certain things don't work like every other program.

    For example, on single-line text input boxes, a Mac user should be able to hit the up arrow or down arrow to go to the beginning or end of the line. Firefox doesn't behave correctly.

    Widgets don't just look wrong; they look like they were pulled off of a Windows machine. And submit buttons are a different size than regular buttons.

    In the OS X version of Firefox, the menus aren't Mac-like at all.

    • The "Tools" menu is a hold-over from Windows. Mac applications have a "Window" menu where you can select from open windows and commonly-used windows. In Firefox, this menu is wasted. The "Tools" menu should be completely removed, and its contents should be moved. Items like "Downloads" and "Error Console" belong in the "Window" menu. Items like "Page Info" belong in the "File" menu(or in the "View" menu, next to "Page Source").
    • "Check for Updates" should be moved from the "Help" menu to the "Firefox" menu.

    Don't get me wrong; I actually prefer Firefox to other browsers. But Firefox has been on the Mac platform since 2003. Within the last four years, the theme has changed several times. Heck, the toolbar icons have changed at least once under each incarnation(Phoenix, Firebird, and Firefox). Within those four years, I would have expected an attempt at making the browser act and look like a proper Mac application, rather than a port from Windows.