Internet Blackout Threat for Music Thieves in AU

An anonymous reader writes "News.com.au is reporting that the ARIA [Australia's Version of the RIAA] is making plans to have ISPs cancel or terminate the accounts of those who download music illegally. If the user is on dialup, that's not a problem: their telephone line will be disconnected. 'Fed up with falling sales, the industry — which claims Australians download more than one billion songs illegally each year — has been discussing tough new guidelines with internet service providers (ISPs) since late last year. The music industry is lobbying for a three strikes and you're out policy to enforce their copyright. Under this system, people who illegally download songs would be given three written warnings by their Internet service provider. If they continued to illegally download songs, their internet account would be suspended or terminated.'"

Comments

Say goodbye to the Blacksmiths of this century

[Ckwop]

Why would ISPs agree to this? I can imagine it now, a group of ISPs implement this and then customers flock to the small ISPs who aren't big enough to warrent attention from the ARIA. Faced with a slump in revenue the ISPs reverse course and try to win customers back.

Let's not get started on SSL encrypted DCC transfers on IRC channels or private FTP servers! That's going to be almost impossible to track. These kind of darknets (as I've seen them called) or going to be very hard to shut-down!

Does this even matter anyway? My friend from Canada brought over his personal collection on a 320Gig drive when he visited this week. This is getting more and more common, people now have so much portable storage that it's often easier to swap collections and cherry pick the songs you like (or take the whole collection if you prefer). Compared to downloading, this is a far safer way to pirate on a huge quantity of music.

At some point, their revenues will become so small that they start to lose credibility. A case in point, where are the blacksmiths' guilds today? This whole issue with trundle on for some time to come but the inevitable will eventually happen. Time is on our sides, my friends.

Simon

Re:Say goodbye to the Blacksmiths of this century

[PPH]

Why would ISPs agree to this? I can imagine it now, a group of ISPs implement this and then customers flock to the small ISPs who aren't big enough to warrent attention from the ARIA. Faced with a slump in revenue the ISPs reverse course and try to win customers back.

I'm not familiar with Australian law. Perhaps there are no 'safe haven' provisions w.r.t. copyright enforcement and its either play netkop or be sued by the copyright owners.

Let's not get started on SSL encrypted DCC transfers on IRC channels or private FTP servers! That's going to be almost impossible to track. These kind of darknets (as I've seen them called) or going to be very hard to shut-down!

Does this even matter anyway? My friend from Canada brought over his personal collection on a 320Gig drive when he visited this week. This is getting more and more common, people now have so much portable storage that it's often easier to swap collections and cherry pick the songs you like (or take the whole collection if you prefer). Compared to downloading, this is a far safer way to pirate on a huge quantity of music.

Never underestimate the bandwidth of a package of DVDs going down the highway in a FedEx truck

The copyright folks are shooting themselves in the foot with this ISP nonsense. Its far easier to detect on-line IP theft (if transfers aren't cloaked in some way) than it is to intercept other means of transfers. This makes me think that the service termination threat might be a scare tactic. As with most intelligence gathering efforts, you don't advertise your methods to your target so they can employ countermeasures. Perhaps a few people will get their access discontinued because their kid downloaded a few songs. No doubt, it will be for a relative ly minor infraction, since that enhances the fear factor more so than going after the major violators. The event will be highly publicized, with sobbing parents on TV and the smaller violators will be discouraged. The bigger ones have more vested in their opreration and will be more likely to employ countermeasures.

Re:Say goodbye to the Blacksmiths of this century

[Eivind]

Dunno about that. The thing is, it's the product of how many you swap with and how much you swap. Disc-sizes are growing exponentially to the point where atleast when it's about music (which it is in this article) you're going to be able to trivially storing huge libraries -- just on the hunch that you may be interested in a small fraction of it.

We already see this. There's a clear trend from sharing a single song by a single artist, then to sharing a complete album by a single artist, and then onwards to sharing complete discographies of artists, aslong as discs keep growing this trend will continue. I can easily see "every-album-that-was-in-the-charts-this-year.zip" and it's not even that much of a stretch to imagine "every-album-that-was-in-the-charts-this-decade"

For that matter, hard-disc-sizes only need to keep growing like they do for a few more years to make "every CD released in USA in the 1990ies" a completely practical thing to store and swap around.

At 200kbps (more or less the needed bandwith for indistinguishalbe-from-cd sound for most people) one hour of music takes up 90MB. An average song perhaphs 7MB. Which means that, for example, the complete content of iTunes (the store, not the program), will take up around 7MB times 3.5 million, which is about 25TB.

Today that's nontrivial, common discs today hold only half a TB or so, so you'd need 50 discs. But discs double in capacity (for the same price) about every 2 years, so that means it's about a dozen years until that entire library, 3.5 million songs, fit on a single standard consumer hard-disc. (yeah yeah, we don't know that the future will play out like that, but it seems a reasonable guess, even if it slowed down it's hard to imagine it'd take more than double that or so)

If RIAA et al think they have a hard time with simple copying now, wait and see what happens when 25TB is a trivial amount of disc-space. They are *so* fucked. I'm not saying its rigth or wrong. I'm just saying it IS so.

so, let's fight this with illegal tactics?

[yagu]

Maybe this is okay and/or legal in AU. Is this legal in the US? What about due process? What about overdue process?

Anecdotally, as an aside, I had on my mind about three artists (new artists, e.g., Paolo Nutini), and hence, three cds I set out to find and purchase. Circuit City, no dice (didn't really plan on buying there what with their recent employee abuse program) -- they had about 1/4 the number of racked cds than last time I'd looked there. Best Buy, sorry. And the local CD store, nope! No selection, nothing. I don't know which came first the chicken or the egg, I don't even know which is which, but my thirst for new music is about the same as before -- but recently I'm finding I can't buy cds as before.

I'm not buying the "pirates decrease sales" spiel. My cause and effect for buying fewer cds is strictly the continued unavailability of cds on display. It used to be a smörgåsbord, now the stores look like the cutout bins of years past. This (the RIAA, and others) is an industry that rather than weather a business model storm and changing business dynamics to adapt continues to insist on taking their ball home with them (hey, it isn't even their ball!) so we can't play. And somehow, they still want to demand we pay them. Please, please, please!, just let them become irrelevant quickly so we can get on with our music!

Scare tactics as usual

[redelm]

Sounds mostly like a "trial balloon", an idea floated up without any real expectation it will be implemented. Perhaps for scare value. The logic is quite erronious: labels have been losing sales not due to competition/substitution from downloads, but from a lack of new, fresh product to sell. They've cut their A&R budgets and are milking their catalogs. Sales would drop even with zero downloading.

In any case, the implementation is sure to be a nightmare: families with shared accounts, botnets, and false-positive identification will make enforcement difficult, even if the ISPs actually wanted to comply. Which I doubt they do. Do ISPs have "common carrier" status is *.au? If so, they will be loathe to jeopardize it.

Re:Monopolies prevent this

[Original Replica]

"If they cut you off, you're done."

In the States that's the fastest way to bring on an anti-monoploy suit. What are the legal ramifications of a non-government organization that could "cut you off" form a significant section of society? Will the ISP hold a "trial" to allow the customer to deny or defend the charges?