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Analysts Call IBM Layoff Estimates "Hogwash"
jbrodkin writes "Rumors have been floating around saying IBM will cut 150,000 U.S. jobs, but a Network World story attempts to set the record straight by quoting analysts who say this news, if true, would wipe out the company's entire U.S. operations and would make no sense since IBM is actually doing pretty well."
...they're just analysts. They don't actually know anything. They're making educated guesses at best.
FTFA:
Analyst Frank Dzubeck, president of Communications Network Architects, says the layoff rumor "sounds kind of ludicrous since there's only [about 350,000] people] in the entire company. That means they'd be wiping out every division in the United States including the headquarters, which doesn't seem plausible."
why does it mean that? they probably have several divisions they could drop entirely because they don't really fit with their future plans, they could scrap those first. And then think of the places you've worked. How many people in those places were completely fucking useless and the company would go on without a hitch or even do BETTER with them gone?
Yeah.
Also IBM still has a lot of tech support in the US, if they outsourced most of that, then those people could find themselves without a job.
Does anyone know anything about an actual breakdown of where those 350,000 people who work for IBM in the US are actually placed? And I don't mean geographically, but by business unit (at least - type of job function would be better.) Not that I expect any such data - but then, the analysts don't have it either.
But who knows, maybe the estimate was just over by an order of magnitude - a misinterpreted misprint :)
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
Our offices here in Winnipeg (Canada) are going to be decimated down to a skeleton staff of people to maintain our managed servers (for places like MTS, etc.) I've been hunting for another job for 2 weeks now, since a relative of mine high up at IBM told me about my office situation.
I believe what they're saying is there are only 350,000 people in IBM worldwide, and not much more than 150,000 in the US. Hence, wiping out 150,000 jobs in the US would effectively mean offshoring the entire company, including the headquarters division.
It's a historical fact. Don't sweat it, it's not gonna be 150,000 people or even 100,000 people...that is absurd.
Blar.
>You clearly were not an Eisner-era Disney shareholder...
I *wish*. OMFG are you serious?
Category 1984 2004 Percent change
Disney's Revenues $1.5 billion $30.8 billion +2,000
Disney's Income $294 million $4.49 billion +1,600
Disney's Tax-Free Cash Flow $100 million $2.9 billion +2,900
Stock Price (adjusted for splits) $1.33 $28.40 +2,100
Market Value $1.9 billion $57.4 billion +3,000
Disney's Enterprise Value
(market value plus debt minus cash)
$2.8 billion $69 billion +3,200
-fb Everything not expressly forbidden is now mandatory.
Slightly OT: In Senate bill 1092, Sen. Chuck Hagel wants to triple the number of H-1B's granted next year to 'help' the high-tech industry.
[Insert pithy quote here]
IBM has a program going evidenced at activities underway in its Boulder, Colorado location for its (botched) implementation of LEAN. (similar to LEAN manufacturing, reference wikipedia)
However, IBM is using staff cutting and IBM India augmentation to achieve the efficiencies that are documented in LEAN-M, whereas IBM's implementation of LEAN is really just a pony show that is masquerading as an internal offshoring program.
The number of decimated IGS units in total will probably be something closer to 30K-40K employees.
For the record, IBM has also made a settlement in a class-action in respect to its Cash Balance pension changes which were instituted after Y2K. Many people at Alliance@IBM (the organization which is trying to unionize existing IBM employees) fear that IBM is trying to put the pension fund itself into default so that those obligations can be wiped off the balance sheet, which would also be an instant win on IBM's stock EPS.
IBM is not only ditching employees, it is also ditching customers. IGS was known for signing a lot of non-profitable contracts in anticipation that future work would be coming from those same clients (in addition to ancillary project-related purchases by clients for things such as networking and hardware and all the labor that goes with that).
That apparently didn't come to fruition. IBM will be giving some sad news in the next few years to come of its accounts as it lets those go, and those resources who were working on them.
Hey, it just says 150,000 IBM jobs. There are contractors that are part of that number. This article (http://www.wral.com/business/local_tech_wire/opin ion/blogpost/1374664/) says what I've been thinking. 1,315 IBM employees and an unknown number of contractors. Since contractors get 2 days notice, by the time the article came out in the paper, the contractors were already gone. Note it does say that employees got 30 days notice. Contractors don't get that, at least not in my experience.
I know of 10 contractors that were let go and 2 regulars. I know of another team that lost 15 of their 23 member team but don't know the breakdown.
[John]
Shit better not happen!
Disclosure, I do work for IBM
The numbers are plausible, but not at the 150,000 mark being bandied about here today. Last week, the number being quoted was 100,000, and in the USA that would be feasible, especially given the plan would be to actually hire almost 1 for 1 outside of the US where labor is much cheaper for the same skillset.
My department lost ~33% of it's staff last week, with more cuts coming in the next month. While I don't quite expect a full 100,000 Americans will be out of work, a lot of us surely will be.
Posting as AC because I am a Global Services employee who still has a job for the time being. The number close to 100K was stated by 3 managers out East. One of them I know personally found a new post right before he was RIF'd. He wouldn't throw that number out there lightly.
There are about 60,000 total GS ee's in the US. Total North American (CA/US/MX) staffing is about 3x that. The 12,000 number world wide is probably low by 50% and that total number will represent FT ee's only no yellow badges. EMEA always gets hammered worse than NA. AP is already so damn thin there's nothing left to hack. LA is also thin. So the brunt will be in NA and EMEA. My guess is 24,000 total. We've just had 5.5% in one week. This will probably continue at a pace of about 5%/month this year and 10%/month in 2008. This would put the total reduction of 24,000 to end by June 08. At the same time they can hire 24,000 new heads in India and South America and save themselves 80% of the headcount cost for those 24,000 relative to US costs.
Yeah I think it will happen.
I work for IBM....I'm not doubting a Layoff, but not that big, but the funniest thing about this article is the so called "LEAN" program.. yeah I know all about the IBM LEAN project since I'm a part of that project... it's an efficiency program loosely based off Toyota's methodology. it's to make our manufacturing process quicker and more efficient. Anybody that works in my division would laugh at this article.