Could Global Warming Make Life on Earth Better?

mikee805 writes "A lengthy article in Spiegel explores the possibility that global warming might make life on Earth better, not just for humans, but all species. The article argues that 'worst-case scenarios' are often the result of inaccurate simulations made in the 1980s. While climate change is a reality, as far as the article is concerned, some planning and forethought may mean that more benefits than drawbacks will result from higher temperatures. From the article:'The medical benefits of higher average temperatures have also been ignored. According to Richard Tol, an environmental economist, "warming temperatures will mean that in 2050 there will be about 40,000 fewer deaths in Germany attributable to cold-related illnesses like the flu." Another widespread fear about global warming -- that it will cause super-storms that could devastate towns and villages with unprecedented fury -- also appears to be unfounded. Current long-term simulations, at any rate, do not suggest that such a trend will in fact materialize.'"

Comments

Re:Oy vey gevault.

[Kev_Stewart]

The documentary wasn't broadcast by the BBC. It was broadcast by Channel4 (known for more controversial and speculative content). Many of the scientists interviewed in that programme have since complained that they were grossly mis-represented in it.

It's still an interesting programme though.

Why so much nonsense on /.?

[enodo]

Why is it that the moderators on /. always post these silly contrarian articles and ignore the relevant scientific discussion? In mid April, the largest and most highly-regarded group of climate scientists, working for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC) published a report about precisely this subject. It was the second in a series of reports. The third was about what can be done to combat climate change. /. never ran a piece linking to the actual report - and never mentioned the third report at all. It is here(pdf), and is easily readable by non-experts. You can get all of the reports (including the past IPCC reports from their website. (In fairness to /., there was this discussion about some BBC coverage on the report about it a week before it came out.) The IPCC scientists did not ignore the "improvements" to the earth that the this article covers. Here is their exact words on that subject:

Studies in temperate areas have shown that climate change is projected to bring some benefits, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure. Overall it is expected that these benefits will be outweighed by the negative health effects of rising temperatures world-wide, especially in developing countries.

Also, BTW, why would anyone focus on the year 2050 when climate change is projected to continue - and possibly accelerate - after that?

Re:Could Global Warming Make Life Better?

[rssrss]

"I'd rather get the flu than dengue fever, yellow fever, viral encephalitis, malaria, and a whole host of other tropical diseases."

Smile when you say that. Most flus over the past few decades have been fairly mild. But there is always the possibility that a new flu (such as the much bruited avian influenza A (H5N1)) could create a new pandemic as deadly as the 1918 out-break, which killed more than 600,000 here in the US.

Of course, flus are not caused by cold weather, they are caused by viruses, many of which originate in south-east Asia which is tropical or semi-tropical. That in turn is not a result of climate, but of the poverty and which in turn leads to close contact between humans and farm animals that serve as the reservoirs of infectious viruses.

The reason that flus spread in the winter in the northern hemisphere is that winter leads to close human contact in schools, offices, and shopping malls that allow the viruses to be transmitted between infected and uninfected human hosts. Flu pandemics are not caused by weather.

Similarly, the tropical diseases you mention are not truly tropical. They are transmitted by insects (mostly mosquitoes) that thrive in water. The reason that they are largely found in the tropics now is that the tropics are largely poor and dominated by bad governments. In Europe and North America public works of sanitation, drainage and insect extermination have largely eliminated these diseases, and they could in the tropics, if they were used.

These are not really climate issues.

Re:Yeah not sure it's caused by 'cold'.

[rizole]

There is a definite link between being cold and having a cold.

From the University of Cardiff's website: ...A study at the Common Cold Centre in Cardiff UK in 2005 took 90 students and chilled their feet in cold water for 20 minutes and showed that the chilled group had twice as many colds over the next 5 days as a control group of 90 students whose feet were not chilled....

Here's the media release.

Basically being cold allows any virus that you already have to take a stronger hold on your body and so symptoms that you wouldn't have had become expressed. You are close in thinking that the immune system is weakened but you certainly don't need to be hypothermic, you just have to have the virus present in your nose already.

See; your Mother was right!
I wonder what else she got right?...you do have clean underwear on don't you?