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The Shape of the Future

Last week, Sci-Fi writer Charlie Stross was invited to speak at a technology open day at engineering consultancy TNG Technology Consulting in Munich. He's posted a transcript of his discussion on his website, which features a fascinating analysis of where technology is going in the next 10-25 years. Instead of envisioning outlandish future developments, he looks at what the impact might be on society from very reasonable iterations of today's SOTA. "10Tb is an interesting number. That's a megabit for every second in a year -- there are roughly 10 million seconds per year. That's enough to store a live DivX video stream -- compressed a lot relative to a DVD, but the same overall resolution -- of everything I look at for a year, including time I spend sleeping, or in the bathroom. Realistically, with multiplexing, it puts three or four video channels and a sound channel and other telemetry -- a heart monitor, say, a running GPS/Galileo location signal, everything I type and every mouse event I send -- onto that chip, while I'm awake ... Add optical character recognition on the fly for any text you look at, speech-to-text for anything you say, and it's all indexed and searchable. 'What was the title of the book I looked at and wanted to remember last Thursday at 3pm?' Think of it as google for real life. "

12 of 179 comments (clear)

  1. Interesting but... by Silver+Sloth · · Score: 4, Insightful
    From TFA

    As projections of a near future go, the one I've presented in this talk is pretty poor. In my defense, I'd like to say that the only thing I can be sure of is that I'm probably wrong, or at least missing something as big as the internet, or antibiotics. Indeed, in fifty years of reading future preditions the one thing they all have in common is that they're all wrong. The next big thing always comes out of left field and is poo-pooed by the 'experts'. It's good to see that Charlie Stross understands that.
    --
    init 11 - for when you need that edge.
    1. Re:Interesting but... by elrous0 · · Score: 4, Insightful
      I'm a huge fan of serious science fiction and have been a fan of Stross (and contemporary "posthuman" writer Greg Egan) for some time. But he is not alone in this realization. No serious science fiction writer in the last 30 years has, to my knowledge, been so arrogant as to think he can accurately predict the future. Only a damn fool thinks that he can predict even the *near* future.

      Good science fiction writers know that science fiction really isn't about the future at all. Serious science fiction is more a commentary on our present, and on the human condition.

      --
      SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
  2. Life Recorders by inviolet · · Score: 5, Insightful

    With the proper ironclad legal protections, Life Recorders will be a massive boon. Accused of a crime? No problem, just open up the datafile, fastforward to the time of the event, and see that we were actually sitting in the basement surfing alt.binaries.pictures.erotica.midgets.

    And for those times when we want to actually bring a midget home, we might want to stop recording. After all, the purpose of privacy is to protect ourselves from the erratic rationality of our fellow humans' moral judgment (as well as the wholesale absence of rationality behind some of our laws). We've still got evolutionary wiring left over that causes us to feel physical pain when others disapprove, and so privacy is a rational demand.

    But of course turning off our Life Recorder will be considered a forfeiture of our right to be Presumed Innocent.

    --
    FATMOUSE + YOU = FATMOUSE
  3. Re:Memories! by rvw · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "You're talking about memories." What I see, what I remember, what is happening in front of me, those are three different things, although they might have a resemblence in normal life. It would be quite interesting to see what you didn't see.
  4. Very roughly! by mutende · · Score: 4, Informative

    there are roughly 10 million seconds per year
    Hm..., a mean tropical year has 365.24219878 days of each 86400 seconds, or 31,556,926 seconds. Ten billion seconds is slightly less than 317 years.
    --
    Unselfish actions pay back better
    1. Re:Very roughly! by clickclickdrone · · Score: 3, Funny

      I think that's called an engineering approximation.

      --
      I want a list of atrocities done in your name - Recoil
    2. Re:Very roughly! by charlie · · Score: 3, Informative

      s/roughly/of the same order of magnitude/g

  5. Thought by Intrinsic · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Of course, aside from making it possible to write very interesting science fiction stories, the Singularity is a very controversial idea. For one thing, there's the whole question of whether a machine can think -- although as the late, eminent professor Edsger Djikstra said, "the question of whether machines can think is no more interesting than the question of whether submarines can swim". A secondary pathway to the Singularity is the idea of augmented intelligence, as opposed to artificial intelligence: we may not need machines that think, if we can come up with tools that help us think faster and more efficiently. The world wide web seems to be one example. The memory prostheses I've been muttering about are another.


    I think he is coming at this from the wrong angle, as we develop more awareness into what makes us human and as we understand consciousness we are not going to need to use thought as much. Present moment awareness, understanding how our body reactions to emergency situations, the expansion of consciousness will allow us to bypass thought, and will allow us use other senses in our bodies to take action or create a reaction to situations in an instant with out much thought process.

    The solution isn't more processing power in our brains, its being able to turn it off thought so other more powerful forces within us can take over and do the calculations needed to live our lives.

    Here's some books if you want to get in the know about whats possible once we have reached a point where our minds distortion of the present moment has ceased to be an issue. Once that happens thought plays a very small part in the equation of creativity, and functioning in the world.

    "The power of now"
    Eckhart Tolle

    The Biology Of Belief: Unleashing The Power Of Consciousness, Matter And Miracles
    Bruce Lipton, Phd.

    "The Divine Matrix"
    Gregg Braden
  6. Innocent until proven Guilty by amck · · Score: 4, Informative

    This puts the burden of proof onto the defendant: they have to explain why they turned off the life recorder.

    Read up as to why we have "Innocent until proven Guilty": there are a lot of circumstances that are not illegal, but frowned on
    by society. (e.g. being Gay and in the US Military, etc.) : especially where you have politically-motivated prosecutors
    such as in the US (less so in Britain and Ireland where there is a higher degree of independence for the Director of Public Prosecutions)
    the law can become a tool of persection. You can be in deep trouble when doing something perfectly legal but frowned on
    my a majority (or vocal/powerful minority) of your community.

    Other issues of the panopticon society: imagine setting up a business (in your spare time,or whatever). Your employer / competitor
    could bring a frivolous lawsuit just to see what you were doing on day X.

    --
    Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist
  7. Re:The Movie you're looking for is called by joto · · Score: 3, Interesting

    who would want to record every single waking --and sleeping!-- moment?

    People who have amnesia. People who would like to record every waking moment but not have to deal with turning the recording on and off. People in law-enforcement. People who need to document fraud and/or abuse by other people, but can't necessarily predict when the interesting bits happen. Students who like to review one of their classes. Perverts who like to sell their sex-experiences on the Internet. Journalists who don't like taking notes. Anyone who have trouble remembering names, or directions, or whatever. In short, just about anyone, I guess.

    Well, yes, all that indexing and searching possibilities are cool and all, but you would still have to spend some time looking it up

    Sure. The idea is that if it's no hassle to record stuff, why not just record it all. The device could be embedded in your wrist-watch and/or cellphone, which most people carry around anyway. Or it could be an implant. If you don't need to access it, you won't waste any time accessing it, and the additional weight you have to carry is less than the extra weight you already carry because you forgot to cut your toenails.

    memories get embellished by our minds. Just go back and read your high school angst-ridden writings and if you're matured just a bit

    I know I feel that way, but I'm not sure everyone feels that way. But even if you do feel that way (like I do), that doesn't remove the usefulness of such a device. Nobody is forcing you to review your angst-ridden teenage depression all the time. But if you need to remember something, you could.

    And there's the waste in recording again what you already saw (because you would be recording yourself watching those records... bleh).

    Why is that wasteful? Storage is cheap. Micro-managing it is wasteful, because it costs more money and time than not managing it at all. Besides, you may end up some day wanting to see how much time you waste inspecting older memories. In short, you could just as well argue that everyone should use letters of maximum 2mm height, and no paragraph breaks or whitespace, when handwriting, since otherwise you would waste ink and paper. The world just doesn't work that way.

  8. Re:The Movie you're looking for is called by Eivind · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Your entire life as such, is worthless if for no other reason than that it'd take literally a lifetime to watch it.

    There's some bits of it though, that would be nice to keep. And here's the thing, you don't know beforehand which bits that is. Sometimes you discover it later, on occasion *MUCH* later.

    That girl sitting next to you on the bus today ? It don't matter, unless she ends up eventually becoming your wife, in which case you migth very well find it amusing to have a recorded video of your very first meeting. (or not, but -some- people would, which is the entire point)

    The only way of being able to get at the interesting bits though, is recording a lot of stuff, on the hunch that *some* of it will be interesting and/or useful. For the same reason, basically, that many people keep *all* receipts for expensive stuff they buy -- because inevitably -some- of the stuff will break down, and then you may need the receipt in order to get a guarantee-repair or a refund.

  9. Re:Uh oh by dave420 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Just as most of us can't survive without AC and a supermarket round the corner. Don't labour under the misconception that we're somehow self-sufficient at the moment and have lost none of our previous skills - it's called progress. We, as a species, will always be losing some skills and gaining new ones. Imagine the skills we can learn when we don't have to rely on flaky memories. Dropping standards in handwriting is a good example - it drops because we simply don't need it any more. It's a good thing :)