2008 - The Year Internet TV Became Mainstream?

revilo78 writes "Will 2008 be the year we can finally drop our expensive cable bills? It's sure looking like it with Joost constantly adding content, ABC announcing it will stream shows in HD, and media boxes such as the Apple TV becoming popular. Television networks finally seem willing and ready to distribute their shows on the web, and hardware manufactures are finally making easy-to-use media boxes that will bring the web to the living room. Do you think we're finally there, the internet-based TV-on-demand we've all been wanting?"

Comments

There's another issue, for cable modem users...

[Travoltus]

People who watch a lot of TV over the internet are no doubt going to experience a fairly annoying problem fairly quickly.

TV over the internet will push anyone far over the so-called standard deviation from mean internet usage; HD over the internet, especially high quality HD, will bring the utter wrath of cable modem ISPs... especially if you decide to forego cable TV service as a result.

Also watch out for a huge upsurge in packet prioritizing - as in all but blocking TV-over-internet sources outside your ISP's network.

This is where secret ISP "bandwidth hog" limits and non network neutrality are guaranteed to hobble the next big thing.

Re:There's another issue, for cable modem users...

[Doug Neal]

Cable companies need to wise up to the fact that as higher general purpose (internet) bandwidth becomes available to homes, the traditional way of distributing TV that their business is based on won't be relevant any more. The thing is, they're the ones with the infrastructure, so they've got the opportunity to make it work for them - their roles are going to shift, from providing TV stations over a dedicated channel to just providing pure bandwidth. There is still plenty of business to be done and money to be made from providing people with TV, just in a different way. The same goes for VoIP and telcos (both cellular and fixed line). The cable companies that try to stop IPTV from happening are going to lose out, just as the telcos that are trying to stop VoIP will. The smart ones should already be accepting the inevitable and making plans to make it work to their advantage.

Re:There's another issue, for cable modem users...

[uncreativ]

As an ISP operator, I'm happy to let people use as much bandwidth as they want to, however I do have bandwidth and network costs to keep in mind. I've got a few thousand users on a 100mbit link and offer a 10mbit service--we are by no means oversubscribing our service since we rarely, if ever max out our link (usually at about 85% capacity during peak times). I suspect my competitors actually have lower ratios of bandwidth per subscriber and do more to play with how people use their service than I do.

I could not however sustain every subscriber watching television in high definition. Say only half of our 5000 subscribers are watching TV one evening in high def...that's 8mbit * 2500, or 20 terabits of data! Please let me know where I can get a 20 terabit capable router, if one exists, and where I can get a 20 terabit connection to the internet. Oh...and if I can provide that service and charge less than $500/mo per subscriber, let me know that too.

I'm not saying as an ISP I am opposed to things going this way, however a lot of infrastructure work has to be done...not just by ISPs, but on the internet backbone as a whole. A couple things that could be tried: 1. Multicasting has to be working nation wide/supported everywhere, or there will never be enough bandwidth. 2. Content distribution companies need to work with ISPs to provide local caching capabilities on ISP networks (and enough ISPs have to go along with it).

#1 will probably never work. ATT is one of the larger tier one networks that other ISPs connect to. Fat chance that ATT would ever let competitors multicast an IPTV lineup through their network, and if one Teir one network doesn't allow it, you pretty much kill the idea for most everyone.

If internet TV ever actually starts taking off I would very likely have to modify my terms of usage and put in consumption caps (with per gigabyte transferred charges over some reasonable limit so people who want to use more can pay for it). I would no longer be able to offer unlimited usage internet plans because they would no longer be economically feasible. I'd like to be able to continue offering unlimited bandwidth, however IPTV changes everything.

Well

[ShooterNeo]

It's already pretty trivial. Welcome to my living room. I use giganews, a pay usenet service that gives phenomenal throughput. I'm able to download at a sustained, average speed of 10-15mbps to my university internet connection, for any file on usenet. Giganews has 120 day retention, so just about any episode of a popular tv show in the last year can usually be found. Almost any popular movie can be found as well, and you can download it in minutes.

Since it is a pay service, with an SSL protected link to my HTPC that downloads this stuff, I am unlikely to be sued. Only giganews knows what I download, and they claim to not keep records. No third parties (such as RIAA/MPAA sniffers) can tell what I am downloading. This is vastly superior to bittorrent and other P2P services. As much as I download, there's a significant chance I could have been sued by now had I used the "free" P2P services.

Yes, I am technically a pirate. Usually, however, I download TV shows that I *could* have seen on my fuzzy analog cable. Instead, I get an HDTV rip made from someone's computer who lives in an area where this show is broadcast in HD.

I get things that I CAN'T pay for : for instance, the last 10 episodes of Battlestar Galactica were shown in High Definition on a Canadian TV station. I was able to download these.

Stargate Atlantis is also available in High Def (the sci-fi channel is NOT, even on satellite or premium cable packages) including 10 episodes that are unaired in the United States.

While you may find fault in my taste in TV, the quality is incredible - the PC is connected to a large 1080p HDTV via a digital HDMI cable.

Perhaps in your country

[Racemaniac]

but here in Belgium we're still paying 50$ per month for a ridiculously fast (download speed at least) connection with 10Gb/month bandwith limit (you can get up to 50Gb per month, going to about 80$/month i think and that's about it). with that kind of limits, i doubt we'll be streaming a lot of tv, we've got enough problems planning how to use the little bandwith we get, imagine if we started streaming tv... (the penalty for exceeding the limit is smallband internet, modem speeds and zero reliability of the connection, even trying to receive your e-mail hardly works when you're on smallband...)

Rant: Real Time with Bill Maher

[quokkapox]

If they would distribute it via a legit torrent, I'd download it, watch it, seed it, and promote it to other people. Even if it had advertisements. I'd even watch the ads and consider consuming the advertised products. All of these things represent value to HBO.

But I will not subscribe to HBO, because I don't have cable. I don't even have a color TV. I don't plan to buy one either.

If there isn't a legit way to get it, I'll just download it for free. If that becomes too risky, I'll be fine watching the interesting clips that wind up on youtube or any of a hundred video blogs. Worst case, I don't get to watch it at all. I'll live.

But for every one like me, there are 1000 who will watch whatever garbage shows up on their idiot box that day, who will buy whatever products and ideas are advertised therein.

What pisses me off is that I can't buy brand-name soap or oatmeal or cars or computing devices without helping to pay the advertising bill for Procter & Gamble and Quaker and Toyota and Dell. I suppose I can grow my own tomatoes and buy generic soap, but if I buy a Honda or a Gateway PC, some of what I pay goes to the advertising industry and some even goes to the RIAA (those pop songs in the commercials aren't free).

It's almost impossible to escape being a good consumer (tm), no matter how hard you try.

Which is why we should all just go read a book. Or write one yourself. It doesn't cost anything to publish your own work anymore. Putting down what you have to say on paper, or electrons, is of more value to our culture than consuming the latest corporate cultural spam. I'll much rather read your replies to this messange, than go out to see the latest Spiderman 3 or Shrek 3.

Think about that. Shrek 3. Spiderman 3. Star Wars 6. Windows Vista. Budweiser. Paris Hilton. Pizza Hut. MacDonalds. Ford. Comcast. Verizon. Wal*Mart.

Fuck all that shit.

Who has time to watch television?

[Door in Cart]

Will 2008 be the year we can finally drop our expensive cable bills?

1998 was the year for that, IIRC. And good riddance.

Will 2008 be the year of going for walks and reading books? Not probably.