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IPv4 Unallocated Addresses Exhausted by 2010
An anonymous reader writes "Ars Technica is reporting on how the unallocated IPv4 address pool could run out as soon as 2010. The IPv4 Address Report gives details on just how fast the available pool of IPv4 addresses is diminishing. Will ISPs be moving towards IPv6 any time soon? Or will IPv4 exhaustion become the next Y2K?"
i've been hearing about how ip4 will run out in the next 5 years for the last TEN years.
If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
Y2K was a bug which was easily solved. This is an infrastructure defect which has an available, but expensive, solution.
It will be expensive to make a major shift to IPv6, which is why it's taking so long.
Until the complete exhaustion of all IPv4 addresses is an immanent threat the change will not happen, much like Y2K.
Telecom companies are switching everything, including cell phones, to VoIP. Soon, damn near every cell phone will have an IP address associated with it. CDMA phones that EVDO rev-A already do. I know one carrier that has a pool of 2 million available addresses, and 20+ million customers with cellphones.
IPv4 addresses are going to be going away very quickly.
Learning HOW to think is more important than learning WHAT to think.
No reason? Ahem, those IP addresses are going to get *VERY* valuable in about 3 years apparently.
It is no longer uncommon to be uncommon.
I doubt anyone will be making a concerted effort to switch until it actually becomes necessary. Once the IPv4 address space runs out, hacks will be done to extend it. Ranges will be "repo'd" from companies, or those companies will just start reselling those ranges. Not until there is no space left to squeeze out will people really start caring.
If we do run out of IPv4 addresses for real this time, I predict ISPs will switch to 100% private IP addressing space before even thinking on IPv6.
Heck, it's already happening in other countries. In Chile for example (a reasonably high-tech country) VTR http://www.vtr.cl/, the only cable ISP, will give you ONLY RFC-1918 addresses, period.
The masses won't care. They only care about their basic apps, and ISPs will use that as leverage to control more services, especially all P2P and VoIP-related ones.
There's also significant financial incentive to keep the limited address space of IPv4. Want a static IP address or additional IP addresses? Fork over the cash, baby!
Same thing that happened when popular domain names started running out. I'm sure IP addresses will go up for auction. Seems kind of silly though considering the space available in IPv6. But if you have people that need these addresses, someone will be willing to pay for them. I imagine some of the big names that got them free from the start will be making a lot of money, such as MIT.
One issue is all the home users inadvertantly using NAT as a "firewall".
If one were to build a proper ipv6 router, they would need to (pony up the cash to) include a proper firewall, or educate the users. Good luck with either one.
For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...