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CNBC Software Flaw Worth $1 Million?

Strudelkugel writes "BusinessWeek tells the story of one obsessive fan who unraveled a software glitch worth one million dollars. Jim Kraber was a regular CNBC viewer, and when the opportunity arose he took the 'Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge' very seriously. At one point, he was spending 12 hours a day on the contest, using three computers to trade 1,600 different portfolios in a theoretical stock game. His efforts got him into the top 20 finalists, but in the last round of trading he noticed some unusual patterns. 'One trader had a stream of near-perfect picks, consistently placing huge bets on shares that soared in after-hours trading. Kraber suspected the trader and perhaps others were getting help from someone who was changing their picks after the stocks' increases — and he quickly notified CNBC ... Kraber says CNBC rebuffed him at the time, but now it looks like he may have been right.'"

10 of 151 comments (clear)

  1. Flaws in contest software by elh_inny · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I find that Marketing departments are completely unfit to provide a secure platform for fun & just competition.
    It usually is a very talented guy, who however has his focus on the looks, not the engine.
    I once, for curiosity's sake took part in one contest. Scoring poorly, I began to analyze the inner workings of that FLash site.
    I have quickly found that the answers to the trivia question were stored in plaintext in my browser cache!
    I notified the organizers, but no actions were taken, I also soon began to notice how people bagan to score more than it was possible according to the game's rules.
    Eventually, they didn't change a thing, except banning people beyond certain score, in the end all my friends got the prizes, CD players, cups etc.
    One year later there was a new contest, almost identical glitches, this time however I decided not to get my friends in trouble, just in case.

    1. Re:Flaws in contest software by MadCow42 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Behind every Marketing person with an idea, there is a programmer that has to implement it. I don't think you can blame the technical issues you quoted on bad marketing... just poor programming.

      Yes, I'm in Marketing... and yes, I also program (semi-professionally). However, I realize that I am not the person best qualified for doing "mission-critical" projects like that (mission-critical to a Marketing program, in this case).

      MadCow.

      --
      I used to have a sig, but I set it free and it never came back.
  2. "Glitchs" in the financial markets by Plutonite · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Capitalizing on real software glitches is something that happens frequently on more volatile markets like the foreign exchange (fully automated since for retail brokers since 2000). Once the cat gets out of the bag however, the immense loss of the brokers (who usually automatically place orders opposite the sheeple, who are expected to lose on average) causes an alert. Nobody can fool the money markets on things like this for too long.

    On the other side, automated trading means that brokers can engage in dirty practices like sending incorrect data to a particular client connection to trigger a trade (they call this stop hunting). Again, this is found out when clients compare data streams from more than 1 broker.

    Dangerous stuff. If you are good, try to stay invisible.

    1. Re:"Glitchs" in the financial markets by Plutonite · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Those interested in the volatility (and thus profitability of "glitches") of the forex markets should check this excellent article on the structuring of the currency markets.

      http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=7484

      Glitches aside, forex is a great place for smart geeks to make (and lose!) money on the side. All you need now is an internet connection and a mini bank account, whereas 10 years ago this was the exclusive arena of millionaire hedge fund managers. Warning: addiction very probable. Try at your own risk.

    2. Re:"Glitchs" in the financial markets by Plutonite · · Score: 5, Interesting

      All retail brokers for the forex market offer these services now, it's not just one site. Stocks are a different story.

      The most popular client platform is MetaTrader, and every broker has their own customized version which connects to their servers. There is an entire C-based language used to program your experts (they call them expert advisors) and you can indeed open multiple demo accounts at no cost. And the capabilities are so great you can easily download scripts that parse news events released real-time on websites and react accordingly with no input from you.

      Isn't it amazing what Turing machines can do? Word of warning though: you will never get rich on an black-box like an algorithm. Use the technology, but don't get carried away.

  3. Re:Stick to poker -- fewer variables... by Chris+Pimlott · · Score: 4, Informative

    Not true - according to the article, he won $10,000 for winning one of the first round weekly games that got him into the final.

  4. The glitch by niceone · · Score: 5, Informative
    Here's 'the glitch' if you don't want to wade through the article:

    If you made the selection before the close of regular trading at 4 p.m. EST and left your Web browser open, you could execute those trades after hours and still receive the 4 p.m. closing price. ..... The allegation is that certain traders may have used the technique with companies that were reporting earnings and other important news after the market's close. They could select as many as 50 stocks and then execute trades for only the one or two best performers.
  5. Letter to Jim Kraber..... by IHC+Navistar · · Score: 4, Funny

    From: Mark Hoffman, CNBC, Inc.
              Steve Ballmer, CEO Microsoft Corp.
    To: Jim Kraber
    Re: Software Glitch

    Dear Mr. Kraber,

              I regret to inform you that, after a thorough investigation of the alleged trading irregularities by independent Microsoft software engineers, we have determined that the perceived trading irregularities were not the result of a software 'glitch' or 'bug', but were in fact security features.

    We sincerely apologize for any inconvenience this may have caused.

    -Mark Hoffman
      Steve Ballmer

    --
    Knowing Google's lust for data collection, the Soviet Union is still alive and well inside the psyche of Sergey Brin....
  6. Anyone can win with 1600 portfolios by bhmit1 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    This reminds me of an old email/fax scam trick. You start sending 1600 messages to people on a stock that's going to have big news the next day, either very good or very bad, no one knows. To 800 of those people, you say it will be good, and the other 800, you tell them it will be bad. The next day, you take the 800 who you predicted the right answer for, take another stock with big news coming out, and 400 of those people will end up with the right answer. Then 200, and on the 4th day, 100. Now for those 100 remaining people, you send a message saying that you've been giving valuable stock picks for the past 4 days and how much would they be willing to pay for your tips. The moral, everyone is a winner when your losers don't count. If you were hoping to find a good stock trader from this contest, this wasn't the way.

    As for the bigger picture, I'm not a fan of "trading", though it does have it's place. I'd rather use the market for long term "investing" and doing something that provides value to the world with the rest of my time. But just like with power and politics, money corrupts, so we should expect that people will abuse the system and just do our best job ensuring we aren't the ones they are abusing.

  7. what a horrible waste by jollyreaper · · Score: 4, Funny

    42-years old and spending 12 hours a day playing a stock trading game. Wasn't there an MMO he could be applying himself to instead?

    --
    Kwisatz Haderach
    Sell the spice to CHOAM
    This Mahdi took Shaddam's Throne