Is Scientific Consensus a Threat to Democracy?

chance_encounter writes "President of the Czech Republic Vaclav Klaus has published an article in the Financial Times in which he seems to equate the current global warming debate with totalitarian thought control: 'The dictates of political correctness are strict and only one permitted truth, not for the first time in human history, is imposed on us. Everything else is denounced ... The scientists should help us and take into consideration the political effects of their scientific opinions. They have an obligation to declare their political and value assumptions and how much they have affected their selection and interpretation of scientific evidence.' At the end of the article he proposes several suggestions to improve the global climate debate, including this point: 'Let us resist the politicization of science and oppose the term "scientific consensus," which is always achieved only by a loud minority, never by a silent majority.'"

Comments

Re:Finally, someone said it

[zCyl]

Consensus science isn't science, it's politics, and that's exactly what the Global Warming debate is about: politics

I despise how global warming discussions focus so much on whether or not someone "believes", and heralding or ridiculing people for being in the right or wrong camp, rather than simply being discussions about straightforward facts.

Re:does that mean....

[JesseL]

First off, we have to realize that global warming is a problem Why? Because you heard someone say so? Because you feel it's true?

First off, we have to allow scientists to determine whether global warming is a problem, without political interference.

Is there strict control in science? Duh.

[greg_barton]

Of course science is under strict control. Of course it's undemocratic.

In a democratic society you are free to state that the world is flat. The people are free to elect someone who says the world is flat. In science you've actually got to prove that the world is flat. Does that mean you're "not free" in science to assert whatever you want as reality. Sure. Personally I like those restrictions. Without them we'd be back in the middle ages.

We don't elect reality. We discover it. Discovery requires that one thing is paramount: observation, and the unbiased interpretation of that observation. So, in essence you are restricted by reality because you want you perception (your model of reality) to conform with reality as much as possible. So you lose the freedom to say that reality is anything you damn well please.

I for one welcome our reality overlords.

Re:Finally, someone said it

[ArcherB]

Climate change is fact, and solid science.

Very true. A quick look at climate history will show that the climate has been changing since the Earth had a climate to begin with, well before the SUV was invented and Bush was elected. It will also show that we are actually in a cool period and global warming will get us back to where we need to be!

Only in countries where there is a strong vested interest in maintaining the status quo has the issue been politicized.

Right, and the countries that are interested in changing the status quo are NOT politicizing the issue? I get it, since they are on YOUR side, it's not political, but those with different views are politicizing the issue.

Re:Doesn't sound like Vaclav Klaus is a scientist.

[Trespass]

Like most people, scientists listen to whoever is paying them.

Re:Translation for those who don't speak Czech

[Gorshkov]

"You need to tell me if you have any political thoughts that I can turn into an ad hominem argument rather than discuss your data or your methods because I'm not a physicist and I can't follow the math."

No - he's saying that if you have an AGENDA, be open and up front about it so that people can determine for themselves if it's the data or the political beliefs speaking.

Most people - including the vast majority on slashdot, who tend to be much better educated and intelligent than "the great unwashed" (myself included), don't have the specific knowledge or background to be able to properly weigh the data presented in the debate.

Knowing people's biases will make it easier for them - US - to properly weigh what they've said.

When an Oil company exec says something about global warming, you're going to take that into account when you look at any data he presents. Likewise, when the president of "People for the Full Eradication of Technology and Man" gives HIS views on the subject, you should also take THAT into account when looking at data he presents.

It's got exactly ZERO to do with ad hominem arguments, and everything to do with wanting full disclosure so that biases can be weeded out - on BOTH sides.

Sounds perfectly sensible to me.

Bottom line: Global warming is *intensely* political. And before we can make any rational decisions about what to do about it, we need to separate the politics from the science. Disclosing biases - on BOTH sides - will at least give us a CHANCE to do so.

Re:Finally, someone said it

[yali]

A physicist explains science to third graders:

We take a vote. I ask how we decide who is right, and then I do the experiment... I emphasize that science is not a democracy, it is not the majority but the experiment that decides what is correct.

Sums it up pretty nicely.

Re:Finally, someone said it

[sporkme]

President Bill Clinton refused to forward the protocol to Congress for ratification. Vice President Al Gore wanted language including developing nations in the accords, and when the language was not added he withdrew his support for the treaty. Only after President Bush was elected did Mr. Gore call for total adoption of the Kyoto treaty as it is. Before we lob accusations about what "Shrub" has or has not done, we should consider why we are in this situation. In the 90's, Vice President Al Gore knew that the most risky source of an increase in emissions came from developing nations, not "USians." That and the crippling restrictions on US business were all the justification he needed to kill the treaty in the United States. He was right.

Absolutely

[benhocking]

The only reason anyone ever goes to the scientific consensus argument is because either (a) the person making the argument doesn't understand the science, or (b) the person being argued to doesn't understand the science. In the case of (a), that person typically is assuming that the scientific question is solved, and it's now time to address the complicated political questions. In the case of (b), how else do you try to convince someone incapable of (or unwilling to) understanding the science behind global warming? The strongest scientific critics you will find against global warming (Pat Michaels and Richard Lindzen) argue that they're not sure if humans are the primary cause of global warming, but that they acknowledge that humans are a factor in global warming - and even these critics are a small minority of climate scientists.

There are lots of places that address the basic science behind global warming, but if you're unwilling to try to understand that basic science, then it makes more sense to accept the wisdom of the majority than the wisdom of the minority under the theory that sometimes the minority is right. (Sometimes they are, but that's the exception and not the rule.)

Heck, there's already been a shift in certain circles towards the next "stage" in avoiding responsibility for global warming. First, they denied the warming. Then, they denied that humans were responsible. Now, they've moved on to the coup de grâce: who's to say warmer won't be better?

(Oh, and this argument against scientific consensus could just as easily be made against evolution, general relativity, or even quantum mechanics. No, it's not a threat to democracy.)

Re:Absolutely

[Maint_Pgmr_3]

Why wasn't last year more severe? That was what was predicted, guess they were wrong....darn

Re:Absolutely

[hateful monkey]

I think the point that many people are trying to make is that suppressing the minority view by shouting them down or dismissing them is crackpots is rarely a productive stance. No one cares if someone claims global warming can be stopped by wearing underwear on your head unless enough people begin to believe it. Some are beginning to make noise about stripping dissenting scientist of certification and awards if they publically denounce the concept of global warming. Why? Because each "anti-warming" voice gives a little extra support to people who would rather not address the issue because of greed, apathy, our political expediency. The dissenting voices may truly believe that global warming is not happening, or is not caused by humans, and in some cases they may have data to support their case, but their reasonable and well thought out ideas are used in broad and irresponsible ways to serve political ends. The debate is not being driven by opposing scientific opinion, it is being guided by self interest on both sides. Scientific consensus, like all consensus, is sometimes wrong and should not be allowed to protect itself from criticism by shutting down the debate. The same is just as true for evolution, general relativity, and quantum mechanics, as it was for the Earth-centric model of the Universe, Alchemy, abiogenesis and the hundreds of other "scientific" ideas that have fallen by the way side. Someone will always point out that many failed "scientific" models failed before rigorous use of the scientific method was common, and that is true, but the scientific method REQUIRES dissenting ideas to test against or it is nearly worthless.

Re:There is more than one way to destroy Tuvalu

[DiamondGeezer]

You have produced yet another set of statements without proof that this has anything to do with man-made global warming. Sea-levelss have been rising for more than 10,000 years and somehow you've just noticed?

In any case,

a) living on a delta is a great way to see the sea rising relative to the land, but the sea-level has hardly changed while those deltas continue to sink. Ask the Mayor of New Orleans. If the deltas are not replenished then you get severe coastal erosion and deltaic islands sink into the water.

b) Tuvalu's problems are entirely caused not by rising sea-levels (because there isn't any) but by overpopulation and overextraction of water making the wells become brackish.

Here's what the scientists say:

"The historical record from 1978 through 1999 indicated a sea level rise of 0.07 mm per year." and

"The historical record (from Tuvalu) shows no visual evidence of any acceleration in sea level trends."

So the sea-level rise is just barely measureable and shows no acceleration due to global warming, man-made or otherwise.

Re:Threat to democracy?

[anaesthetica]

Perhaps he is scientifically illiterate. But he's not illiterate in the language used by totalitarians. It seems that no one here is actually commenting on who Vaclav Klaus is.

Klaus was chairman of Civic Forum, the Czech anti-totalitarian movement that was one of two leading groups during the 1989 Velvet Revolution against the Soviet Union's dominance over Czechoslovakia. He's a free market politician (predictably after decades of ruinous Soviet economic predominance) and quite naturally suspicious of totalitarian influence.

If Klaus sees a parallel between the way global warming alarmists and the Soviet totalitarians use language to browbeat their opponents, he at least merits a hearing-out rather than an out-of-hand dismissal.