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2008 - Year of Linux Desktop?

Posted by Zonk on from the what-year-isn't-the-year-of-the-penguin dept.

rstrohmeyer writes "Over at Maximum PC, we're betting that Linux will pick up unprecedented momentum in the coming year. With phenomenal new distros, swelling international support, and a little extra momentum from Dell, we think Linux is poised to exploit the current atmosphere of doubt surrounding Vista and pick up serious traction in '08. 'For end users here in North America, Linux poses a low barrier to entry. While many still balk at an upgrade to Vista (typically centered around cost and restrictive licensing terms), those who are curious about the open-source alternative will find few of these obstacles. And an increasingly rich array of ready-to-run software (not to mention surprisingly effective utilities that let you run many Windows apps) makes it easy switch ... Ultimately, I'm not predicting that Linux will take over the market next year. Or anytime soon, for that matter. But if there's ever been a time to try out the world's leading free OS, 2008 will be that time. I am predicting that users will switch to Linux in record numbers next year. And many will never look back.'"

11 of 659 comments (clear)

  1. Nope. by khasim · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It's all about the applications. There are too many apps that too many people use that are available on their Windows machines.

    There will not be a "year of the Linux desktop".

    There will only be the year when people realize that most everyone else is running Linux, too.

    1. Re:Nope. by Coryoth · · Score: 5, Insightful

      There will not be a "year of the Linux desktop". There will only be the year when people realize that most everyone else is running Linux, too. Exactly! Both the people expecting a "year of the the Linux desktop" and the people who mock that saying Linux won't and can't succeed on the desktop are deluding themselves. Consider that Linux is now quite successful in the server space; was there ever a "year of Linux on the server"? No, it simply became more prevalent and slowly but surely snowballed. As more people used it on the server it gained support for a wider variety of servers, and slowly but surely invaded the server space. Linux will be just the same on the desktop. There is no point when Linux is "desktop ready", since there will always be something that is lacking for some users. Instead Linux will slowly but surely become more viable as a desktop for a larger and larger userbase. As the userbase expands the application availability and user-friendliness will in turn steadily improve. There is no magic tipping point.

      If you want to see that Linux will eventually gain significant desktop market share then just compare Redhat 5.2 to Windows98, and Ubuntu 7.04 to Windows Vista; the desktop gap has been slowly but steadily closing for years. More and more people are finding Linux a viable alternative desktop. It is still not viable for everyone, but little by little it will get there.
      --
      Craft Beer Programming T-shirts
    2. Re:Nope. by tooyoung · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Look, this isn't meant as a troll. Linux is great. Much better than Vista. Offer me the choice between the two, and I'd take Linux hands down. However... nobody knows what Linux is.

      Honestly.

      Go ask 10 non-technical people if they would consider using Linux as an OS, and 9 will look at you like you just spoke Greek to them. No, it doesn't count if you ask your wife, who you constantly bore with tech-talk about how much better Linux is than Windows. No, it doesn't count if you go ask your parents, whom you've been trying to convince to make the switch for the past 5 years. Go ask people that don't work in the tech industry, and who you haven't badgered constantly about Linux.

      As I mentioned above, 9 won't know what you're talking about. The 10th person will think that Linux is pure command prompt, with no UI. Why? Not because they are dumb, but because they have just never heard of it. Just like they haven't heard of Solaris, and just like they haven't heard of z/OS. They don't talk about Linux on CNN, they don't write about Linux in Cosmo or Maxim. Hell, how often do you see it mentioned in 'science' magazines, like Discover or Popular Science? It doesn't matter if Ubuntu has a nice GUI and can load DVDs like any other OS. Most people just don't know that, and they probably don't care much. The idea of spending an hour replacing XP or Vista with Ubuntu would strike most people are boring and daunting. What reason do they have? Their computer works for the most part. Most wouldn't even know where to start. Not because they are dumb, but because:
      1. They wouldn't know where to get Ubuntu.
      2. They assume it would be as much of a chore to install as Windows. Oh, you don't think that is a chore? Well, that is probably because you're reading a technical website.

      Yeah, I'd love to see Linux blow up this year. It is doing great in server land, but it has a ways to go before it gets on the desktop of the general public.

  2. why not by gEvil+(beta) · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be...

    --
    This guy's the limit!
  3. Re:if only linux had more games. by misleb · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It's sad that theres no globally accepted library etc, that all devs use. I mean some apps are mac / windows. why not mac /windows / linux? Since mac runs on a version of *nix. And don't give me that wine / cedega bs. Sadly, until I give up gaming on PC I will have at least one windows box. I hope that Linux continues to offer more and more people an alternative though. Competition is good!


    The way I see it, it doesn't matter that there aren't games on Linux (and to a lesser extent, Macs) It isn't just that I'm not a big gamer, it is that I don't mind booting into Windows to play a game. Most games have a bit of a time commitment to them. At least an hour. If I'm going to be playing for that long or more, what's 2 minutes to reboot? Of course, that mean maintaining a copy of Windows... drivers and all, which is a bit annoying in and of itself, but not a deal killer for Linux.

    Of course, I've never paid for a copy of Windows in my life, so maybe things would be different if I was legit and had to shell out extra money just to play games.

    Another thing is that a lot of the really cool games are coming out on console first these days, so maybe the whole Windows/game issue will be moot. GTA IV, anyone?

    -matthew
    --
    "THERE IS NO JUSTICE, THERE IS ONLY ME." -Death
  4. Re:Find a specialized desktop market by javilon · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Linux already has this, it is the programmers and system administrators desktop of choice.

    --


    When his defense asked, "Which computer has Jon Johansen trespassed upon?" the answer was: "His own."
  5. Re:Every year... by kebes · · Score: 4, Insightful

    By the way... I think the number of Linux users is probably already higher than any of the hypothetical numbers you threw out.

    It's obviously impossible to know for sure how many people use a given OS... especially when that OS is distributed freely and requires no kind of registration. However we can get some vague ideas from a few sources. The Linux Counter estimated 29 million in 2005. This was in part based upon verifiable numbers from Red Hat indicating 8 million installs in 1998 (yes, this is including corporate installs, not just home users).

    Another (again not totally reliable) way is to use browser stats. W3school reports ~3.4% of browsers are running in Linux. Since there are 1 billion internet users, that means 39 million Linux users.

    Again, these numbers are open to massive debate. But I think the real number is somewhere in the ballpark of 10 million to 40 millions users. Alot more than most people think.

  6. Dell is both driven and driver. by Ungrounded+Lightning · · Score: 4, Insightful

    But once this percentage gets over, say 5-6%, linux will start having more traction, and will become more difficult/risky/costly to ignore.

    IMHO Dell selling a Ubuntu-preloaded machine is not just a vendor having this epiphany, but also a force to promote it with other vendors.

    People wanting to sell peripherals to users of Dell products now have a wakeup call about furnishing Linux support - along with a big-name company betting significant resources on a market being big enough to chase.

    --
    Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
  7. Re:Every year... by westlake · · Score: 4, Insightful
    . it's said 'is XXXX the year for the Linux Desktop'?
    What would make it so? At what point would it be possible to quantify that 'yes, this IS the year!'... when there is 100,000 users? 500,000 users? 10,000,000 users?

    I've seen estimates of Windows' desktop share that begin at 300 million users - equivalent to the entire population of the U.S.

    Vista entered the consumer market in January.

    In July, Walmart.com sells HP Pavilion Vista Premium laptops starting at $780.

    15" Wide-Screen Display, Dual Core AMD CPU, 1 GB RAM, DVD burner and DX 9 GeForce Go graphics that do not suck. For $12 add 1 GB ReadyBoost Flash, for $120 a key chain USB HDTV tuner.

    OEM Linux at Walmart is out. The generic Vista laptop from Dell is in.

    If the Geek thinks mass-market pricing of Vista is going to be a turn-off, he is delusional. If he thinks that product activation, DRM, Windows Update, etc., concern anyone in this market, he is ready to be committed.

  8. Re:Every year... by PeterBrett · · Score: 5, Insightful

    (My experiences dictate that if GNOME or KDE fails, an inexperienced user is left helpless at the command line - Windows does no such thing. This needs to change and support needs to become even *more* accessible before acceptance is widespread.)

    You're quite right. Windows does no such thing. My experiences indicate that if the Windows GUI fails, an inexperienced user is left helpless without a (usable) command line.

    --
    Pirate Party UK
  9. Re:Every year... by bit01 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If the Geek thinks mass-market pricing of Vista is going to be a turn-off, he is delusional.

    You're delusional if you think the US experience applies to the 95% of the world's population that don't live in the US.

    ---

    Windows and closed source software. The US intelligence agencies' back door to every network connected country and business on earth.