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2008 - Year of Linux Desktop?

Posted by Zonk on from the what-year-isn't-the-year-of-the-penguin dept.

rstrohmeyer writes "Over at Maximum PC, we're betting that Linux will pick up unprecedented momentum in the coming year. With phenomenal new distros, swelling international support, and a little extra momentum from Dell, we think Linux is poised to exploit the current atmosphere of doubt surrounding Vista and pick up serious traction in '08. 'For end users here in North America, Linux poses a low barrier to entry. While many still balk at an upgrade to Vista (typically centered around cost and restrictive licensing terms), those who are curious about the open-source alternative will find few of these obstacles. And an increasingly rich array of ready-to-run software (not to mention surprisingly effective utilities that let you run many Windows apps) makes it easy switch ... Ultimately, I'm not predicting that Linux will take over the market next year. Or anytime soon, for that matter. But if there's ever been a time to try out the world's leading free OS, 2008 will be that time. I am predicting that users will switch to Linux in record numbers next year. And many will never look back.'"

6 of 659 comments (clear)

  1. Every year... by Fyre2012 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    ... it's said 'is XXXX the year for the Linux Desktop'?

    What would make it so? At what point would it be possible to quantify that 'yes, this IS the year!'... when there is 100,000 users? 500,000 users? 10,000,000 users?

    slashdot, of ALL places should understand that Linux is making better ground each year in a number of markets, including the desktop. To say that 'this is the year' we might as well say 'this is the century'. It's impossible to quantify.

    --
    This is not the greatest .sig in the world, no. This is just a tribute.
  2. Not optimistic about the US by rmcd · · Score: 3, Interesting

    As TFA suggests, perhaps Linux is poised to take off outside the US. Inside the US, I dunno.

    I recently installed Ubuntu 7.04 as a family desktop (dual booting with Windows), on a Dimension 8400. Having reading so much about about what a terrific distribution it is, I decided to experiment. (To provide context, I also have a Debian server that handles backup, slimserver, print sharing, and a Myth backend, and a Debian Myth front end. I'm extremely happy with both.) I've been unpleasantly surprised by Ubuntu as a desktop.

    1. Playing DVDs in the US remains a problem. I know that Linspire is going to address this, but this is a huge issue.

    2. VPN is a pain. Apparently Network Manager doesn't work right if you have a static IP address! I spent a *lot* of time trying to get VPN to work before I discovered this. Yes, it's a reported bug.

    3. Reliable power management, i.e. suspension and hibernation. It's crash city when I suspend or hibernate. Yes I have the latest BIOS. No, I'm not willing to buy a new machine. And yes, I'm sure there are many machines where power management works properly, but I'm also sure there are many machines like mine.

    4. The general polish of the Gnome interface is low compared to Windows and OS X. (Yes, I've also looked at KDE.) When I switch users, why do I have to log in twice?

    These strike me as all pretty basic issues. I haven't tried to find problems. I've just tried to get the Ubuntu desktop working as a functional equivalent of the Windows desktop. I couldn't do it.

    I do see huge progress relative to 5 years ago, but I also see a long way to go.

  3. 2008 will be the Apple's year, not Linux by Swift+Kick · · Score: 4, Interesting

    While the article is nice and points to some great progress in a number of fronts (like Dell's recent announcement about shipping desktops loaded with Ubuntu), Linux still has an enourmous amount of ground to cover before it comes close to being a serious rival to Windows in the consumer desktop market.

    Please note that this is just a personal experience which has repeated itself pretty much every time I ran across a new machine.

    It is still a bit of work to get Linux to function properly in a machine with recent hardware. As an example, we have a few new Dell boxes with nothing fancy here, just Core 2 Duo processors, SATA drive, and ATI X1300 video cards.
    Fedora 6 and 7 both barfed when starting the install because of the SATA DVDROM. Ubuntu had the same behavior.
    After 4 hours of checking multiple forums for FAQs and HowTos, we got Fedora 7 running on them, yet the video card isn't recognized properly by Xorg off the box, so no dual-head, no native resolution. Off to get more updates, more FAQs, etc.
    By comparison, we had XP running in 30 minutes in one of the boxes, and one hour later it had all the required software needed for the developer to go to work, including VMWare with a Fedora 7 virtual machine running in it.

    How can you expect large user migrations to Linux is experiences like this one are closer to the norm? Joe User doesn't want to spend 2 or 3 days just trying to get his OS installed, only to have to spend another few days just trying to get his/her bearings around.

    People will *not* migrate to it if the applications they want to run don't run on Linux, and Joe User can't be bothered with adapting to a whole slew of apps, that 'sort-of-look-but-aren't-really-the-same' as their old ones, even if they're superior to their Windows versions when it comes to functionality.
    Let's not even start discussing games. Yes, a number of popular games run under Wine or Cedega, but people do not want to spend hours trying to diagnose issues or tweak stuff; more often than not, they want to install it and go.

    Until you can take a distribution disk, pop it on a random machine with decent hardware, and have everything up and running without requiring any type of user action 'under the hood', Linux will remain firmly esconced in the realm of server rooms, geek basements, and nerd bedrooms; not in your average household.

    --
    "We'll need 2000 crickets, 4 cans of Easy Cheese, and the fluid from 18 glowsticks for this plan to work...." - ph0n1c
    1. Re:2008 will be the Apple's year, not Linux by wall0159 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      While there is certainly a benefit to controlling the hardware and software to provide a seamless experience (as Apple does), I think they won't be able to compete with Linux in the long term. Apple will ultimately lose to Linux for the same reason they lost to Windows - lack of flexibility. Macs can only be bought in a few preconfigured options, whereas PCs can be bought in almost any form. (I'm not bagging Apple here - I have an iBook and love it. I just don't think they'll become dominant for this reason.)

      Windows will lose to Linux because they can't keep up with the innovation, security and robustness afforded by being open-source. The rate of development on Linux is staggering, and there's no way MS can keep up. If you look at the most successful human societies - they're the ones that share resources (that's the benefit of _being_ a society, after all) - code sharing means that Linux will win in the end.

      Someone made the comment about codecs and DRM. I really don't think that will be a problem. As has been noted elsewhere, the average ipod owner has bought about 10 tracks from the ITMS. Almost no one has DRMd video (apart from DVDs, which play fine), so I think that's a non-issue.

      Will it (The Year of Linux) happen in 2008? I don't know and don't care. But it seems likely that it _will_ happen.

  4. Ubuntu. by crhylove · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Yeah, this article is dead on. Except the time isn't just in 2008. It's right now. I've recently switched about 20 people over to Ubuntu from Windows, and all but one of them were ecstatic. The one exception is a very heavy illustrator user, and said inkscape wasn't good enough. Other than that though, it's been 100% rave reviews and new clients for my little bedroom/repair shop.

    rhY

    --
    I hold very few opinions. I hold information based on observation and fact. If you wish to disagree, please use facts.
  5. Re:2027 - year of fusion power? by Spacejock · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Actually, the two most common support questions I'm getting for all my freeware apps are (1) I just switched to Mac, and are you planning an OSX version? and (2) I just got Ubuntu, are you planning a Linux version?

    In seven years of giving away my software I've never seen this many requests for non-Windows versions. Unfortunately all my apps are written in Visual Studio 6, so the current answer to both questions is NO. I am rewriting my stuff in VS2005 though, which might offer a bit more cross-platform support down the track with the Mono project. (And no, I'm not switching languages. First, because I do this for fun and second, at almost 40 years of age and with a publishing contract for my novels in hand, I'm past the days of learning new languages.)

    --
    Hal Spacejock: Science Fiction with Nuts