Hardcore to Be Pushed Aside This Console Generation?

Gamasutra asks questions directly of analysts on a semi-regular basis, in a feature they call 'Analyze This'. This week they quiz analysts about the rising influence of casual players, and what this means for the dedicated hardcore gamer. The ubiquitous Michael Pachter: "I think some portion of family growth will come from aging of original Xbox owners, who will have families of their own and will likely play games with their children. I also think that newer features on the Elite, like the 80GB hard drive, will encourage more family activities, like downloading TV shows and movies. In essence, I don't see [Microsoft] trying to cannibalize the Wii audience, so much as to trying to offer an alternative with the Xbox 360 as the home media center. I don't think that there is any real threat to the long-term survival of the Xbox 360."

Comments

Re:A few thoughts

[AKAImBatman]

The PS2 was the only console in the households because it had far and away the best games of the era.

I don't think we really disagree. My point is that the PS2 got it start from being a cheap DVD player. Which catapulted it into the role of a casual gaming machine. Which has become a self-perpetuating engine of sales thanks to the large library of casual games.

The point in history I'm discussing is specifically the chicken and the egg solution that the PS2 used. You can't sell consoles unless you have a large library of good games. And you can't get game creators to make good games unless there is a customer base of consoles to target. Sony solved this with a good launch followed by a price drop that made it a cheap DVD player. We don't even think about it now as DVD players are so cheap, but all those games ended up on the console because Sony managed to get the console in the hands of consumers.

What Sony seems to have underestimated with the PS3 is that:

1. Not many people want a BluRay player.

2. $600 may be a bargain in relative terms, but it's a lousy value in absolute terms. Consumers only care about the absolute terms.

Errata

[AKAImBatman]

This: "Microsoft didn't fare much better, just barely edging out the Wii's sales."

Is supposed to read: "Microsoft didn't fare much better, just barely edging out the GCN's sales."

Minor fubar on my part. :P