Humans Can Still Out-Bluff Machines

Pcol writes "The New York Times reports that in a poker game this week between man and machine, a program called Polaris fought a close match, but lost to two well-known professional poker players. Designing a poker playing algorithm is a different and more difficult challenge for software designers than chess and checkers because of uncertainties introduced by the hidden cards held by each player and difficult-to-quantify risk-taking behaviors such as bluffing. The game-tree approach doesn't work in poker because in many situations there is no one best move and a top-notch player adapts his play over time, exploiting his opponent's behavior. Polaris build a series of "bots" that have differing personalities or styles of play, ranging from aggressive to passive. Researchers monitored the performance of three bots and then moved them in and out of the lineup like football players."

Comments

Only expert players ....

[gstoddart]

I got the impression from some of the news stories that two professional poker players barely beat out the machine.

I have a sneaking suspicion that, for the vast majority of players, the computer is gonna kick your ass quite handily.

For the same reasons, I suspect that everyone who wasn't at the level of Kasparov would have gotten their asses handed to them in a game of chess against older versions of computers which couldn't yet beat him.

This, of course, begs the question of how long it will take for the on-line casinos to start putting poker playing bots into the mix to skew the odds even further to the house. I mean, if you have a computer program which will beat everyone else, why not just dial it down so it only wins 30% of the time or so and nobody will be any wiser.

Cheers

Environmental Sensors

[jshriverWVU]

Would be nifty if the bot's had access to environmental sensors like a camera so it could do facial recognition on the people to detect twitching, detect very little sweating, excess heat coming off body, things to interpret lying. Just an idea, and not *that* far fetched.

Re:Not harder than chess

[xero314]

[poker is] not a strategy game, but a psychological exercise. Poker is indeed a strategy game. Knowing statistics and probability are critical to successful poker play. Psychology is important was well but is useless with out strategic knowledge. The majority of poker played in the world is limit poker which has far less psychological play and a lot more statistical accuracy. Even in a No Limit Hold'em game, probably the most psychological game regularly played, you would be better off having strong strategic and analytical skills an poor psychological skills than the other way around. But, like any game which contains aspect of chance, both strategy and psychology are imperative to being a successful player.

If you're playing cards in Hold'em, against decent players, you WILL lose. I would be happy to take on any player, no mater what there record is, as long as that player never looks at his hole cards. Cards are important in card games, even if betting is the determining factor in who ultimately takes a particular pot. Imagine the game being played with no cards what so ever and you will see why knowing how to work with the cards you have is important to the game. Any time a professional player makes a "call" it is because of statistical knowledge and not psychological, even if it is to set up a play later on.

Re:RTFA.

[bogjobber]

You are also wrong. They chose the bots for the first two games, and the play was very close. They ran the 'coach' bot in the third game, and the computer got beaten "handily".

Re:Not harder than chess

[Aaron England]

Thinking that poker is only about statistics and luck is the hallmarks of an inexperienced player. The simple truth is, if you make your bets on the odds that you will win the pot against a professional poker player you will lose with 99.999% certainty. Because a professional poker player doesn't just play the odds, he plays you. He does this by lying about the strength of his hand through bluffing and discerning the times you attempt to bluff. Here's an example of how your stategy would play out. Let's say the following happens on the river.

You: Pair of 2's, check
Him: Ace-high, all-in

Now do you call or fold? You have the better hand here. If you knew what your opponent had you would definitely call. But since you are playing the odds, you decide to fold because you calculated you have a 30% of winning, which also means you have a 70% of losing. This is why playing the odds will cause you to lose. This is why it is the "psychological exercise" that the grandparent said it was.