DARPA Files Patent On Predictive Simulation

An anonymous reader writes "New Scientist has a post on a patent filed by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), seeking to control a new potent predictive simulation. The patent outlines the process, which may someday allow researchers to accurately predict the behavior of observed subjects. They're not there yet, but not for lack of trying. It already works in some military war game scenarios, says the patent. 'Parunak says his model can successfully detect players' emotions, and then predict future actions accordingly. He believes the technique could one day be applied to predict the behavior of adversaries in military combat situations, competitive business tactics, and even multiplayer computer games. The patent application gives an interesting insight into DARPA's goals. The agency has pumped a lot of money into AI in recent years without reaping major rewards. One day computers may find a way to accurately second-guess humans, but I suspect we may have to wait a little longer yet.'"

Comments

Re:Tic-tac-toe

[tgv]

I would like to see your solution for these equations for normal human behaviour. For some reason, I think you cannot even formulate the objective, let alone solve it. This model might be suboptimal, but that doesn't make it worse than random guessing.

This is where DARPA got the original Idea

[Shohat]

DARPA issues a 2 million $ challenge to build a driverless car.
A brilliant engineer built such a car, that was able to navigate in complex environments at high speeds by predicting the size, shape and behavior of surroundings on its path through simulation, according to the behavior of similar environment and path structures it has already passed. This causes the car to actually gain speed and statistical confidence in its own upcoming actions simply by acquiring enough experience of driving in similar environment.
Same kind of algorithm can of course be applied to any machine that is expected to operate for a long time in a complex semi-predictable environment - such as forex trading, poker, or a battlefield
This is the story on Wired