Slashdot Mirror
July NPDs Show PS3 Didn't Pull Ahead of 360
Despite last month's price drop, Sony's PlayStation 3 console just couldn't pull ahead of the Microsoft Xbox 360. Both, according to the latest NPD results, are still dwarfed by the continued domination of Nintendo's Wii console. 1up has the numbers for July: 'PlayStation 2 - 222k, PlayStation 3 - 159k, PSP - 214k, Xbox 360 - 170k, Wii - 425k, Nintendo DS - 405k, Game Boy Advance -- 87k.' For further commentary we can turn to Gamasutra, which offers a further breakdown on the numbers and some big picture perspective for this year: "Total industry revenue for 2007 presently stands at $7.0 billion. If there is no year-on-year growth for any month until the end of 2007, then the industry will finish the year with $14.5 billion in revenue, an increase in 16% over 2006. That's a reasonably pessimistic scenario ... If we start with our current $7.0 billion as of the end of July and continue at a rate of 40% growth through the end of the year, then we arrive at a total of $17.5 billion for all of 2007 ... If Wii supply constraints are eased, Halo 3 sells as well as expected, Sony's first-party software attracts more PS3 buyers, and Rock Band and Guitar Hero III are both hits, it seems likely that revenues may go above $18 billion. In this optimistic scenario, industry revenues during the single month of December 2007 would equal or surpass the total annual revenue from all of 1997."
VGCharts is predicting that the Wii has already outsold the Xbox 360. If their numbers are on target (which they have been shown to be accurate in the past), then the market is officially settling in to a Wii > XBox 360 > PS3 console situation.
What's interesting about this situation is that it fits perfectly with the way the market normally works. On one end of the spectrum, you have a cheaper product that aims to make less money per unit, but make it up in volume. On the other end of the spectrum, you have a product that's more expensive and aims to make more money per unit even if the volume is lower.
The only thing messed up about this situation is that the high end of the spectrum isn't aiming to make money. They're losing money on each console in the grandest attempt at the razor blade model ever seen. Even on each game unit, the price of development is so high that it has to be cutting into the available royalties.
The bright side is that the cost of the PS3 components *will* go down very quickly. Cutting-edge parts always drop in price the fastest. If Sony keeps their price high enough to start making a small profit (or at least break even!) on each console, they'll have an opportunity to comfortably maintain the high end of the spectrum, and perhaps even grow that market in the future.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
I called it and pretty much anyone who wasn't a self-professed "hard core gamer" did too. The reality is that the X-Box 360 is comparable in almost every important way to the PS3 but considerably cheaper, and the Wii is genuinely more interesting and has more scope for games development than either. The latter has captured the imagination of those inside and outside the gaming communities. The X-Box 360 is out now, has a substantial games library, and is as powerful as its more expensive rival. The PS3? Well, it has Blu-ray. And that's about it.
And Blu-ray is as much a millstone as a feature. It may tempt some HDTV buyers who are willing to throw money at unestablished standards to get the functionality they need today, but it also adds several hundred dollars to the production costs of the console. Microsoft has scope for price cuts that are suicidal for Sony to do.
I don't think this Wii, X-Box 360, PS3 ranking is seriously likely to change, at least not before PS4 and X-Box 720 (or whatever the next generation of consoles are called) come out.
You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
I'm not particularly surprised the PS3 failed to outsell the 360 in North America. While the price cut represented an increase in value it didn't represent a decrease in the minimum amount of money to spend. I'm not an expert, but I'd attribute the increase in PS3 sales to people buying the system for the added value, and the failure to surpass the 360 to the non-interest of people who want/need to spend less money on a console.
If the Wii has passed the 360 worldwide then the next, and possibly last, major milestone will be to beat the 360 on its home turf. Being #1 on a region by region basis as well as worldwide would be indisputable proof of the Wii's dominance.
As it stands, Microsoft and Sony are both in similar situations. They need to take action, or concede this generation to their competitors. Microsoft can, at least, weasel their way out of it by bringing back Nintendo's line that they "aren't competing". It's a cop out, but that's Microsoft.
Despite the insufficient sales boost from the price cut, I am anticipating a resurgence of sorts from Sony. Maybe I'm ignorant, but for the non-FPS inclined population there are few interesting titles coming out for the 360 in the relatively near future. Sony may not be much better, but I get the feeling that they're paying better attention than Microsoft.
Microsoft's answer to the Wii appears to be that Viva Pinata party game/mini-game collection. To me, looks like a clear case of missing the point. The Wii isn't successful because of games like Wario Ware, Rayman and the like. Attempting to duplicate their success in this manner is foolhardy. Sony, at least, appears to have a better inkling of what's going on. LittleBigPlanet is a large step in the right direction, even if it is the only step we can see for now.
I don't expect the current patterns to continue without change. Halo 3 will represent a change in 360 sales, as will SSB: Brawl for the Wii. Personally I'd rather like to see the patterns be more volatile. It's not that interesting when within a year of the generation the outcome is obvious.
Thunderclone: ONE MAN ENTERS! TWO MEN LEAVE! ONE MAN ENTERS! TWO MEN LEAVE!
The PS3 is nearly even in sales with the more established XBox360 and has 0 must-have exclusive hit titles.
I've got both and when I see my XBox360 I think: Bioshock, Geometry Wars (@#W(!!! I will get the survive million achievement), and soon Halo 3.
I see my PS3 and think... Blu-Ray...
And it still sells nearly as many units as an XBox360? Any company would kill for that.
No, I don't remember that.
In fact,I think most analysts expected the PS3 to be bloated and expensive and fail because so many gamers lack the disposable income for a 1080p PS3 type system. Everybody knew the PS3 was a waste of money. Even Sony had to make apologias for it.
Anyway, these numbers are wrong. Sony is so strong in Europe that to not count that section is probably just an attempt to hype the XBOX (on Slashdot? Never!!!)
My roommate got one last week and thus far I have to say if this is what they have to offer, they are in trouble in the long run. The controller is interesting, but I don't know that I'd call it any better. It has it's pluses and minuses over a normal controller. However the magic next generation of input it is not, at least not in my experience.
Also it seems extremely gimmicky in relation to the controller. Two of the mostly highly rated games, Wii Sports and Wario Ware Smooth Moves just aren't all that IMO. Wii sports is neat, and is fine for a little sports game, but I don't see anything special.
Take the tennis game for example. Yes, you swing the Wiimote rather than pressing a button, but that's all you are doing in effect. It doesn't measure the angle you swing at or anything, it is just timing. You hit at the right time and you get the ball to go where you want. This is the same thing you did with an older, button pressing style game, just using a different action. Interesting, but not something that really changes how games are played.
Likewise Wario Ware seems like nothing but a giant controller gimmick. You do tons of rapid fire mini games (about 3 seconds a piece) that involve just figuring out what kind of motion they want you to make with the controller. You do it right, you win, do it wrong you lose. These are punctuated by extremely strange sound effects and visuals. Regardless, it doesn't seem like any real attempt to use the controller in an innovate way, just various gimmicks.
If that's the kind of thing they have to offer, I don't see it as having a lot of staying power. It's got the "Ooooo nifty," factor combined with a good price that gets people to look at it now, but I don't see that as being what people will keep going for in the long run.
We'll see where it goes from here, but thus far I don't see it really capturing the imagination, more I see it just putting out some silly gimmicks that people find fun. Nothing wrong with that, stupid fun is good fun, but that isn't the kind of thing that is likely to keep it going solid in the long run. After all, there's only so many controller gimmicks you can try before it gets old. What will sell me is when I see a good game that uses the controller to really enhance the experience. Something where I go "Nope, couldn't see this working well on a pad/mouse/keyboard/joystick/whatever." So far, I haven't seen that. Haven't had a change to play a whole lot of games yet but other than the gimmick games, the others seem to be using the controller but only as you'd use any other. Zelda looks like a great game, but the controller adds nothing really. I find myself wishing I could hook up a mouse and keyboard as that would be easier to control in my opinion.
Actually, considering that PS3 has been out less than half the time of the Xbox360, I would expect it to sell more, because most people that would want one of those systems would likely already have an Xbox360.
The main reason PS3 sales are sluggish (and the reason I haven't even looked at buying one) is that most households in the US don't have an HDTV, and a PS3 really isn't worth the cost if you don't already have one. Considering that raises the minimum spending to enjoy the system to somewhere in the range of $1500 (System, Games, TV, cables, etc). While XBox360 certainly benefits from having HDTV, it's not as much of a requirement to enjoy the full feature set.
Nintendo systems are kicking butt. That's awesome. I love my Wii (that's what she said) and my DS, and I have a bit of a soft spot in my heart for Nintendo from my younger days. They're responsible for my favorite games growing up. But I don't think those console sales numbers tell the full story. At least not yet. There really does seem to be separate casual and hardcore markets right now. The question is which one is bigger. Out of the 5 people I know who own a Wii, I'm the only one with more than 3 games for it. Everyone else just has Wii Sports, Wii Play, and maybe one of Mario Party/Elebits/Excite Truck. I haven't seen comprehensive numbers, but I suspect that Wii owners buy less software than PS3/360 owners. Look at the monthly sales in the article. Number 1 is NCAA 08 for the 360 (pissed they didn't make a Wii version). I'll be VERY interested to see what Madden sales are next month. Part of that theory is that I think many Wii owners bought the system as an electronic board game. To play Wii Sports and so forth with their friends. They're content with 2 or 3 such games. The hardcore crowd is instead going to buy at least 1-2 immersive, live-in-the-basement-and-eat-Hot-Pockets-type games per month. And arguably, Wii just now finally got its second such must-have title today in Metroid. I thought it was telling that my Gamestops didn't do midnight openings for Metroid. I just think there's more nerdgasm going on for games like Bioshock, Crysis, Blue Dragon, and the next WoW expansion. And I think those are the folks that are gonna spend the money. I'm not going to be surprised if Wii console sales double up on everyone else this generation. But I'm also not going to be surprised if Wii software sales are eclipsed by sales for PS3/360.
The problem is that the numbers appear to be only for North America. However, if you go world-wide, the PS3 is outselling the 360. Consider Japan. A few months or so ago there was news that the Wii was outselling the PS3 5 to 1 in Japan. What they didn't mention was that the PS3 was outselling the 360 about 5 to 1 there as well, which more than makes up for the 11k difference in North America. The PS3 is also outselling the 360 in the rest of the world, which also makes up for that 11k difference. So MS has something to cheer for in America I suppose.
Looking at the past, the PS3 is selling at the same pace as the 360 was for the same point in its lifetime (remember, the 360 had an entire year with no next-gen competition). That actually looks pretty poor. The PS3 has to compete with the Wii and the 360 in addition to the PS2, whereas the 360 only had to compete against the PS2. Looking into the future, the 360 has some highly anticipated games coming out before the holidays, afterwards it has pretty much nothing. And even those titles are mostly just FPSs and some suspect they won't move much consoles because Gears of War already attracted that player demographic. Most of the anticipated titles for the PS3 come next year.
Then we look at other factors. News is really starting to spread about the RROD and other stories about the crappy quality of the 360. Even some media outlets are picking up on it, which isn't good for MS, despite their increase of the warranty.
The way the Wii is going might make it a moot point in any case about the 360 and the PS3 anyway. The Wii sold in 9 months what the 360 did in 21 months. It selling more than twice as fast, it is still in its first year, and it still has some anticipated games for it in the near and far future. Some analysts are predicting anywhere from 17-20 million Wiis sold by the end of this year. It has already shown to be the fastest selling video game device (handhelds and consoles included) of all time, and that is why it is having the supply problems (though some suspect that Nintendo is hording for the holidays).
Stop Global Warming!
Just say no to irreversible processes!
There are two important things that set the PS3 above the 360: Bluray and processing power.
The Bluray is an absolute win. It's not about HD video-- it's about game content. As it is, media-heavy games eat up a lot of space, and game manufacturers are already compressing textures and dropping the size of their levels just to squeeze everything onto a DVD. Bluray allows for better textures and bigger worlds. Game designers no longer have to worry about the DVD limit.
The processing power is a double-edged sword. There's a certain point when there is "enough" processing power. After that, it's all just wasted. And the cell broadband engine is quite different from standard programming-- you can't just create more threads to take advantage of the additional processors.
However, for game engines designed from the ground up to take advantage of the platform, the PS3 has substantially more power than the 360. The 360 has a slightly better GPU, but the PS3 has more than enough extra power to make up for it, and then some.
The 360 isn't a bad game machine (unlike the original Xbox, which was a PC in an ugly case), it isn't "comparable in almost every important way to the PS3," though it is considerably cheaper.
Microsoft is to software what Budweiser is to beer.
...since when does "blatantly wrong" quality for "insightful" mods?
He may be basing his comment on international numbers. NPD only report American non walmart sales. VGCharts takes data from international sources as well. So while in the US the Ps3 is lagging slightly behind the PS3, the 360 doesn't sell well outside of the US and may in fact be outsold 2:1 over all. Although VgCharts will often revise their numbers as their latest is based on up to date and projected info. As new numbers come in they will revise it. According to VG charts the Ps3 has had a marginal lead for the last few months while NPD still shows the 360 strong. What we can take this as is that the 360 is still strong in the US market but is losing over all. But not by much and they still have a significant lead.
"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."