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OOXML Vote and the CPI Corruption Index

Posted by kdawson on from the voting-on-the-merits dept.

Tapani Tarvainen writes "It turns out there's an interesting correlation between Transparency International's 'corruption perceptions index' and voting behavior in ISO's OOXML decision. Countries with a lower score (more corruption) on the 2006 CPI were more likely to vote in favor of OOXML, and those with a higher score were less likely. According to the analysis, 'This statistics supports with a P value of 0.07328 the hypothesis that the corrupted countries were more likely to vote for approval (one-tailed Fisher's Exact test). In other words, simplified a bit: the likelihood that there was no positive correlation between the corruption level and probability of an approval vote, that is, this is just a random effect, is about 7%.' Of course, correlation doesn't prove causality."

20 of 190 comments (clear)

  1. OpenISO.org by jafoc · · Score: 5, Interesting
    Since in so many counties the MS-OOXML "evaluation" process was a farce and the outcome shows complete incompetence because it amounts to blind approval of MS-OOXML, I believe that it is time to put some pressure of competition on ISO (which is essentially a cartel of national standardization organizations) by means of creating OpenISO.org, a new international standardization organization committed to principles of openness.

    I've put up a little website with some initial thoughts, and I'd appreciate feedback from the slashdot community please.

    1. Re:OpenISO.org by suv4x4 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I've put up a little website with some initial thoughts

      Your cause is interesting, but I'm afraid there's a lot more to do than a barebones 'vision' page, so to create a standards body able of replacing ISO.

      ISO has created over 16500 standards, and publishes ~1250 new ones each year. Yes, that means several new ones each day. Those include food safety, environmental protection, oil and gas, ship and automobile building, basically everything.

      Computer formats comprises but a minuscule fraction of ISO's work.

      OOXML was overthrown at ISO, isn't this what you wanted after all.
      So the system works, no need for anti-establishment rebellion for anti-establishment's sake.

    2. Re:OpenISO.org by jafoc · · Score: 5, Insightful
      OOXML was overthrown at ISO, isn't this what you wanted after all.

      No, MS-OOXML hasn't been "overthrown" at ISO, at least not yet. There's going to be that "ballot resolution meeting" in February 25-29, 2008 in Geneva (I've already booked my hotel room, since hotel bookings can be a bit difficult in Geneva if attempted on short notice) and then there's going to be another vote. In my opinion it'd take a miracle for MS-OOXML not to get passed then regardless of how many of the substantial comments the "ballot resolution meeting" manages to resolve.

      So the system works

      No, it doesn't. It's totally broken. And if in the end the voting result happens to be the correct one (rejection of the "fast track") after all, that won't be the case because of a trustworthy process based on legitimate, valid arguments, but rather it would be the case because of the successful application of comment-bombing and similar tactics by the opposition.

      no need for anti-establishment rebellion for anti-establishment's sake

      I have seriously tried to work within the existing system, with the only resulting success being that I have learned just how badly broken it really is.

    3. Re:OpenISO.org by throup · · Score: 5, Funny
      Thanks to what Microsoft have told me, I believe there is a place in the world for both of your competing certifying bodies. One may publish potential standards that have been created from scratch with the intention of being useful to the world, whilst the other may be better suited to represent existing standards in a more open way.

      So, for example, OpenISO.org may publish something along the lines of:

      Standard process for brushing teeth
      • Hold toothbrush in left hand;
      • Hold toothpaste tube in right hand;
      • Position tube above toothbrush and squeeze the tube until a pea-sized amount of paste is on the brush;
      • Transfer brush to right hand and follow the process detailed in OpenISO.org OI22987 Standard process to brush something.



      Whereas SoiOpen.com may publish something along the lines of:

      Brush your teeth the right way
      • Buy a Colgate toothbrush;
      • Buy some Colgate toothpaste;
      • Use them like Steve Ballmer does*.

      * For personal reasons, Mr Ballmer will not discuss his dental hygiene routine with anyone.


      Sorted.
  2. More interesting pattern by jkrise · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Countries like India and China ... home to over 33% of the world's population - have voted "NO". Countires like Cote' de Ivorie and Cyprus have equal voting rights.

    This population index anomaly must be rectified, before the ISO can regain any credibility as an International standards organisation.

    --
    If you keep throwing chairs, one day you'll break windows....
    1. Re:More interesting pattern by MontyApollo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I think that is kind of the point - that large countries can't dominate small countries. If China and India decided everything, then everybody would drop out and it would no longer be an international standard. It would be a Chinese-Indian standard.

    2. Re:More interesting pattern by arivanov · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Welcome to the world of international organisations.

      Those of us observing the ruthless buying of pro-whaling votes by Japan over the last decade have noticed this one long ago. In that case countries that do not even have a coastline or a single ship registered in their name apply for a membership in the International Whaling Commission with Japanese money and go ahead to vote with a yes.

      Unfortunately the dead body of a standard is not sufficiently heavy and smelly so it will be difficult for GreenPeace to dump it on the Microsoft doorsteps http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4627178.st m . Pity actually. It would have been quite fitting.

      --
      Baker's Law: Misery no longer loves company. Nowadays it insists on it
      http://www.sigsegv.cx/
    3. Re:More interesting pattern by jkrise · · Score: 3, Interesting

      that large countries can't dominate small countries. If China and India decided everything...

      But small countries are easily dominated by money-wielding vested interests... don't you think? The 51% "Yes" votes actually translate to less than 20% of the population of the nations that participated. That's a gross aberration, and the ISO must take note of it.

      BTW, even if India AND China supported a standard, they'd only hae 33% representation - many more nations would need to support to reach 67%.

      --
      If you keep throwing chairs, one day you'll break windows....
    4. Re:More interesting pattern by asc99c · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Although I don't agree with whaling, I feel I should at least point out that the IWC was a whaling industry organisation that was subverted into a conservation group. This happened as a group of big countries recruited a lot of the smaller countries (with again, no whaling interests of their own) to join the IWC and vote to ban whaling.

      So this ruthless vote buying process is hardly without precedent ...

  3. Thanks, Intarweb reporter by argStyopa · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Sorry /., but this is the sort of crap reporting that is persistent on the web and (because they're desperate to retain viewers/readers) is becoming the de facto standard in print and media journalism.

    Appending "Of course, correlation doesn't prove causality." to the end of an article strongly implying causality in every sense, doesn't absolve the reporter from the false conclusions he/she implies throughout the rest of the article.

    That the correlation was run at ALL implies that someone was 'looking for something' - suspect 1. The layer upon layer of dependent statistics leading to a very authoritative-sounding "the likelihood that this is a concidence is 7%" makes it sound very scientific and accurate - suspect 2

    Sorry, this is FUD passed off as news supported by phony statistics.

    --
    -Styopa
    1. Re:Thanks, Intarweb reporter by StringBlade · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That the correlation was run at ALL implies that someone was 'looking for something' - suspect 1.

      Are you suggesting that correlations cannot be run without someone "looking for something" to prove causality? If so, why would anyone ever use correlation in any sort of statistical analysis because it's merely a means to an end in the eye of the person running the correlation.

      Bogus statistics example: 78% of 16-18 year old children consume large amounts of carbonated soda. 93% of 16-18 year old children attend high school. It therefore follows that there is a direct correlation between 16-18 year old children who drink carbonated soda and those that attend high school.

      Please forgive my abysmal example of a correlation (because I'm really bad at doing real math and statistics) but it's there to show that anyone can create a correlation and assign it some number without having an ulterior motive. The implication of your statement above was that this correlation shouldn't have even been run except that it was to further the agenda of the author.

      I think the correlation is interesting on its face, but I'm not about to use that as evidence in an international court to point fingers and shout "corruption!"

      --
      ...and that's the way the cookie crumbles.
    2. Re:Thanks, Intarweb reporter by LarsWestergren · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Appending "Of course, correlation doesn't prove causality." to the end of an article strongly implying causality in every sense [...]

      It wasn't the article that said that, it was the Slashdot summary. A bit of a weasel word though, it should be clarified as "correlation doesn't always prove causality, but in this case we believe based on evidence A, B, C that..." or removed.

      [...]doesn't absolve the reporter from the false conclusions he/she implies throughout the rest of the article.

      Speaking of weasel words... What conclusions do you believe are false then, and why?

      That the correlation was run at ALL implies that someone was 'looking for something' - suspect 1.

      We HAVE to look for SOMETHING, both in statistics and other science. It is pretty much impossible to do as Shelock Holmes said - "It is a capital mistake to theorize before you have all the evidence. It biases the judgment." How do you know that you have all the evidence if you don't even know what you are looking for?

      Sorry, this is FUD passed off as news supported by phony statistics.

      You may not agree with the conclusions, but how are the statistics phony?

      --

      Being bitter is drinking poison and hoping someone else will die

    3. Re:Thanks, Intarweb reporter by WaZiX · · Score: 3, Informative

      just because 78% of the 16-18 drink large amount of soda and 93% of the 16-18 year old go to school doesn't mean there is any correlation between the two... That's not a bogus statistics example, that's just an example on how bad people (you in this case) understand what correlation is...

      Correlation would be: 85% of the kids 16-18 attending school drink large amounts of soda, whereas only 40% of those who do not attend school drink large amounts of soda. That is an example of correlation.

      A good bogus example would be: People who wear suits to work have on average a higher income then people who wear work clothes, there is therefore a correlation between how nicely you dress to go to work and your salary. Therefore the way you dress to work has an impact on your salary.

      Please note that the correlation in itself is not the bogus part of the example, the bogus part is the conclusion made by myself. Statistic themselves are rarely bogus, and if they are they can clearly be shown to be bogus, the conclusions drawn are the problematic part.

  4. .07 is not significant by pbooktebo · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Most research in the social sciences considers the threshold for statistical significance below .05. Since this is above, few would have confidence that this result is not random chance. So, reporting this result, while informative if you are trained in statistics, is likely misleading to the average reader...

    1. Re:.07 is not significant by wembley+fraggle · · Score: 5, Informative

      Not only is 0.07 not significant, they used a 1-tailed test, rather than a 2-tailed test. If they had used the 2-tailed test, the p-value would have been 0.14, which is REALLY not significant. You're only ever justified in choosing the 1-tailed test over the 2-tailed one if you know for certain which way the influence is pushing. If, for example, one could make the case that the OOXML vote would have gone the other direction, with the more corrupt countries voting against it (a case we have no a priori reason to discard), then the use of a 1-tailed test is inappropriate here.

      Actually, having read TFA, I'm pretty sure that correlation isn't appropriate at all here. The corruption scores are discrete, categorical values, rather than continuous values. This calls for nonparametric methods. Start with chi-square and move on from there. You can't do correlation with a straight face if your variables are discrete, since there's no guarantee that the "distance" in corruption between 2 and 3 is the same as the distance between 4 and 5.

  5. Of course... by Otter · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Of course, correlation doesn't prove causality.

    Given the inappropriate use of the Fisher's test, questionable use of a one-tailed model and p > 0.05, I'd start with worrying about having proven correlation.

    --
    What I'm listening to now on Pandora...
  6. Correlation DOES Imply Causation by thetan · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Come on people, we've been over this already!

    If you look at the scientific studies, correlation is so closely correlated with causation that it's safe to say that one causes the other.

    Check the stats for yourself.

  7. Has ECMA become a Microsoft shill. by supersnail · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Another intersting point coming out of all this the role of ECMA International
    formerly European Computer Manufactureres Association - dont see many of them around these days).

    ECMA is fully accredited by ISO and in ists search for a new role as a standards body did
    a nice job producing a standard for the orphaned Javascript ( except for changing the name
    to the disease like ECMAscript).

    However since then other "standards" developed by ECMA have been:-
    -- the programming language C# ( C "sharp")
    -- a Common Language Infrastructure (CLI)
    -- a CLI binding for C++
    -- Office Open XMLOffice

    Anyone spot a pattern here?
    The other problem is that ECMAInternational is essentialy a club of computer software and
    hardware manufacturers and unlike national standards organisations (ASA, BS, DN etc.)
    does not have any public interest mandate; it exists only to serve its members and
    to join you need to be a large software or hardware manufacturer.

    I have no problem with any industry forming a club to standardise things among themselves
    but for an industry association to be the main sponser of an ISO standard seems plain
    wrong.

    Microsoft for one seems to have spotted an ideal vehicle for turning proprietary products into standards.

    --
    Old COBOL programmers never die. They just code in C.
  8. Please correct as ASAP as possible... by Chapter80 · · Score: 4, Funny

    OOXML Vote and the CPI Corruption Index
    Nice Headline. Allow me expand one of the acronyms for you:

    "OOXML Vote and the Corruption Perceptions Index Corruption Index"

    OK, that's it for now - I have to run down to the ATM machine and put in my PIN number...

  9. Lies or Truth from Microsoft? by scruffy · · Score: 3, Interesting
    The International Herald Tribune has an interesting quote from Microsoft.

    [Tom] Robertson, [Microsoft's general manager for interoperability and standards], defended the Office Open XML format and predicted its eventual adoption by standards organizations.

    "Open XML is already widely available and is being used by Apple and Novell," he said. "It is in the Palm operating system, and in the Java and Linux operating environments. Not only is it easy to work with, there are no intellectual property concerns to do so."
    Is this stuff true? I suppose an essential part of corruption is to justify your decisions with lies.