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Newton II - Does The Rumor Have Legs This Time?
Ian Lamont writes "Mike Elgan at ComputerWorld has an interesting analysis of the small computing market, and predicts that the market is primed to take off. He admits that small computers have been tried before and failed ('Every single UMPC device that has been shipped or announced suffers from lousy usability, high prices, poor performance, ill-conceived user interfaces, or any combination of the above') but he points to several recent products — and a rumor — that he says changes the playing field and paves the way for the first-ever successful small computer, from Apple. The products are the iPhone and the iPod touch. The rumor: Apple Insider has sources who claim that Apple is actually working on a 'modern day Newton' to be released in the first half of 2008. The device will supposedly have a version of Mac OS X Leopard and a touch interface, according to Apple Insider. A lot of people just aren't buying it. They point to the fact that the first Newton eventually flopped. A few note that similar Newton II rumors have been trotted out in years past, as well as a high-profile hoax. Nothing ever came of them." Would you buy if the Newton came back?
The Newton is already back, it's called the iPhone
#!/
1) It was released too early (needed another 3-4 months shaking out before hitting the shelves).
2) Synchronizing data was a painful process involving lots of cable manipulation, app-launching, etc. (the Palm had a dock: very easy)
3) Too expensive (by about $500)
4) Too large (Palm got it right)
5) NewtonScript was nice, but too weird. A C++ dev kit would have helped a lot (but was politically impractical in the Newton group)
6) Apple management wanted royalties on applications (which was just absolute bugf*ck insanity)
[Yeah, I worked on it.]
Any sufficiently advanced technology is insufficiently documented.
I have wondered for a long time if the Newton would resurface. I don't think it was a bad product idea, I just think it arrived before its time. Today it might succeed for 2 reasons:
1) Much greater technology penetration of main stream markets. (Not just for nerds anymore. Or perhaps "its hip to be square.")
2) CPU speeds are fast enough today to allow for a more advanced GUI in a portable device.
Think Deeply.
No third-party installable apps, so no, it's not a Newton. However, it could be converted into a Newton with a slightly more ambitious operating system update.
I think this position misses the premise (which I happen not to believe).
The only reason the iPhone and iPod touch aren't the next generation Newton is that they aren't sold, supported, or configured as platforms for running third party software. If a "Next Generation Newton" was locked down, it wouldn't be a "Newton", it would be an iPod.
The whole thing boils down to money. Apple tried selling PDAs, and they didn't make a ton of money. By making the iPhone not a PDA, they not only get a nice chunk of rental revenue from AT&T, they avoid playing a game that they tried before and lost.
However, timing is important in business. Companies are getting out of the PDA business, which means it is time for a contrarian business to consider getting in. The big question with Apple is, what are they going to do to get people to buy more of their stuff? After a few more generations of iPhone and iPod, it's bound to become a harder sell. So a lateral move into a different product category is plausible, although it isn't inevitable they'll go back into the PDA business.
Maybe something that look a lot like the PDA business though. If I was smart enough to know what that might be, I'd be rich.
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