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"All Quiet Alert" Issued For the Sun
radioweather writes "The phrase sounds like an oxymoron, and maybe it is, but the sun is extremely quiet right now, so much in fact that the Solar Influences Data Center in Belgium issued an unusual 'All quiet alert' on October 5th. Since then the sunspot number has remained at zero — solar cycle 24 has not yet started. There are signs that the sun's activity is slowing. The solar wind has been decreasing in speed, and this is yet another indicator of a slowing in the sun's magnetic dynamo. There is talk of an extended solar minimum occurring. There are a number of theories and a couple of dozen predictions about the intensity solar cycle 24 which has yet to start. One paper by Penn & Livingstonin in 2006 concludes: 'If [trends] continue to decrease at the current rate then the number of sunspots in the next solar cycle (cycle 24) would be reduced by roughly half, and there would be very few sunspots visible on the disk during cycle 25.' We'll know more in about six months what the sun decides to do for cycle 24."
However, since the historical record shows that the worst part of the Little Ice Age occurred during the Maunder Minimum, when the sunspot level was also atypically low for a protracted period, then if the current conditions on the Sun continue for long enough, it should provide evidence that would either confirm or debunk the premise that global warming is a function of fluctuations in solar activity. Unfortunately, as the controversy has assumed the status of a holy war, regardless of what happens, both sides will accuse the other of misinterpreting the data and persist in their claims.
Amazing - it happens to correspond with the temperature "fears" relating to Global Warming and Cooling.
During the 60's and 70's, there was talk of a near-future Ice Age. During the 90's and today, there is talk of the ice caps melting and so on.
Right.... The lesser greenhouse gas (both in amount and effectiveness) being the thing driving temperature is not absurd but the sun doing it is absurd? Lets wait and see what happens over a protracted period of time... I'm not sold on one theory or the other but to swear off either at this point it the equivalent of a blinding religious crusade.
It is by the juice of the coffee bean that thoughts acquire speed, the teeth acquire stains. The stains become a warning
The problem is, of course, trying to model this in a meaningful way - thanks to Fourier transforms we know that you can build any given pattern out of a sufficiently large collection of cyclic processes, which makes these cycles upon cycles upon cycles feel a bit iffy to me. Feels much more like a chaotic process with long periods of stable equilibrium, which means that while cycles may be useful for general short-term work, their predictive power is always hampered by the fact that the system may abruptly change in unpredictable ways.
NASA prediction was solid based upon the data they had. As more data came in, predictions(forecasts, actually) were adjusted. Welcome to science, please stay for the ride.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
- The "talk" of a near-future Ice Age was from a few scientists and was not supported by the mainstream. Just like the "talk" today that there's no anthropogenic global warming.
- The most recent sunspot minimum (2005) coincided with the hottest year ever recorded for our planet! (Or second-hottest, depending on which set of numbers you use. Also, just to head you off at the pass, note that I mentioned the planet and not just the United States.)
- There is more than just "talk" of the ice caps melting. We just surpassed the previous minimum Arctic sea-ice records by more than 20%!! (Meanwhile, while the Antarctic sea-ice area reached a maximum, the total mass continues to decline.)
Of course, you probably know all this already. If not, and you'd like links for any of this, let me know.Ben Hocking
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