Slashdot Mirror
Computer Software to Predict the Unpredictable
Amigan writes "Professor Jerzy Rozenblit at the University of Arizona was awarded $2.2Million to develop software to predict the unpredictable — specifically relating to volatile political and military situations." From the article:
"The software will predict the actions of paramilitary groups, ethnic factions, terrorists and criminal groups, while aiding commanders in devising strategies for stabilizing areas before, during and after conflicts.
It also will have many civilian applications in finance, law enforcement, epidemiology and the aftermath of natural disasters, such as hurricane Katrina."
Sure, no problem. The software should work fine, as long as you find a computer powerful and irrational enough to run it.
Didn't see that one coming.
Go ahead and predict the weather for a week. I will be impressed.
Predict it for 2 weeks, I will blow you.
You cannot predict something with so many variables that you don't understand. You certainly cannot do it regarding how people will react.
The Asymmetric Threat Response and Analysis Project, known as ATRAP, is a massively complex set of computer algorithms (mathematical procedures) that sift through millions of pieces of data.
They come right out and say it...
You are not a brain: http://books.google.com/books?id=2oV61CeDx-YC
Apparently there are those that have forgotten the old computer law of "Garbage In, Garbage Out". Even if we had a perfect model to predict these sort of things, we don't have any way of supplying the required data to model the prediction. What's the computer going to do, go undercover in secret groups? Read the web sites? Listen to radio chatter and analyze their conversations?
Maybe someday when we have a real science of A.I. something like this might be possible, but all it shows is that this university professor will happily take government money for delivering absolutely nothing.
Sometimes it's best to just let stupid people be stupid.
New York: Simon and Schuster, 1987.
Oh, say does that Star-Spangled Banner entwine / The myrtle of Venus with Bacchus's vine?
...the program will still fail to predict it. By definition.
The article (as would be unsurprising even from the professional press, and is less surprising from what seems to be a school newspaper of the school employing the professor getting the grant) seems to be a very uncritical regurgitation of an extraordinarily puffed-up press release that seems to suggest that the professor has gotten a grant to develop something that already exist and presently has the capacities sought by the grant. Sometimes. Maybe. Really, the shifting use of verb tenses gave me a kind of mental whiplash trying to read it.
Also, I think that while this may be useful, the danger of overreliance on a system where quite literally no one using it understands how factors are really being used to generate outcome predictions are immense; if you get something that works well predictively at all, it will likely be prone to fail wildly if any of the many factors it is adapted to based on the historical data used to train it shift. Unfortunately, it is quite likely that the particular sensitivities will be opaque, and thus no one is likely to know when it is likely to fail. This is rather distinct from conventional analysis which, even though it may fail in many circumstances, where it is rigorous analysis and not just guesswork to start with, its assumptions are transparent and its weaknesses and vulnerabilities in application to particular situations can also be evaluated.
..when Duke Nukem Forever will be released.
And to be honest, this alone is worth the expense.
Load New Commander (Y/N)?
Of course it can--did you even read the link?
It will just take about six months to calculate the result.
The short story, not the movie. They're completely different. It covers exactly this situation.
Precog #1 sees the future.
Precog #2 sees the future that happens when you know what Precog #1 saw.
Precog #3 sees the future that happens when you know what Precog #2 saw which was the future that Precog #1 saw.
Chinese researchers today announced $10.2 million (USD) funding for a system to predict the outcomes of unpredictable outcomes predicted and influenced by US ATRAP computing, with the goal of further influencing the the outcomes to produce a balance-of-trade advantage for China and producing a complete domination of Taiwan...
"The mind works quicker than you think!"
For anybody who wants a little more info than is present in the popular-press summary, here's a couple of conference papers from Rozenblit's group on using coevolution and genetic algorithms to analyze/visualize military scenarios. I think they might require institutional subscriptions to see the full PDF, but I've pasted the abstracts below.
A coevolutionary approach to course of action generation and visualization in multi-sided conflicts
The current state of military operations includes many stability and support (SASO), multi-sided conflicts. The research presented in this paper attempts to address this complex environment by creating a SASO simulation, coevolutionary generation of courses-of-actions (COAs) for each side, and visualization tools for analysis of the resulting COAs. The SASO simulation is significantly different from previous systems because it incorporates non-conventional warfare units such as terrorists and media. The coevolution algorithm is different because it allows all sides of the conflict to evolve their COAs. The visualization tools are important because SASO doctrine is not as well developed as conventional warfare doctrine. Therefore, visual analysis and understanding of a system that is not well defined provides insight for future modeling and verification.
Modeling and simulation of stability and support operations (SASO)
Stability and support operations (SASO) are becoming increasingly important in modern military operations. Conflicts are no longer comprised solely of two opposing sides engaged in combat on an open battlefield. Instead, they are more likely to involve groups sharing various alliances and relationships each pursuing a range of different goals. The Sheherazade SASO wargaming engine presented here: a) incorporates subjective criteria for scoring course of action (COA) success such as the animosity between factions and attitudes of locales, b) uses nontraditional units such as refugees, media and information operators, and c) employs a coevolutionary genetic algorithm in modeling the dynamics of the complex multisided simulation for generating COAs. This paper outlines our approach towards the development of a wargaming model that handles the more complex and computationally demanding arena of SASO.
Welcome the flim flam predicting the unpredictable coding in a bunch of random number generating overlords.
What a waste of 2 million bucks.
This is my sig.
"...and the aftermath of natural disasters, such as Katrina."
Dealing with the aftermath of Katrina wasn't a matter of applying rocket science. It was simply a matter of simple logistics and a government that gives a shit about people. Unfortunately, the U.S. government has shown time and again under this administration that it could care less for the lives of its citizens, let alone the citizens of other countries. These problems can't be fixed by software. They can only be fixed by real leadership, something the people of the U.S. haven't shown much interest in electing...
It doesn't take software to predict that going into Iraq was a huge mistake. Just ask Chaney circa 1994. He knew it would be a major mistake, and he wasn't the only one. A lot of us were yelling and screaming to stop it before it started...
Software can't predict the future nor can they predict what stupid leaders will do. On Sept 10th, could anyone (or more importantly, any software) predict what things would be like in this country today? Even remotely? The war in Iraq, a country completely disconnected from 9/11. Guantanamo, spying on our citizens and other erosions of liberty... I doubt it. A single event and the responses by inept leadership led to a variety of disasters that nothing and nobody could have predicted.
Major: Sir, the computer has given us a plausible scenario for operation Sandy Whirlwind
General: OK Major, lets see what this pile of junk has to say for itself
Major: It says that we can overcome all undesirable outcomes by sending in CL22 using a classic scissor movement.
General: Let me see that! How did the computer even know about CL22, our crack regiment of killer circus clowns! That's amazing!
Major: There's more sir. It also talks about project CC.
General: Project CC! The stealth car capable of carrying thousands of CL22 troops in a vehicle the same size as Robin Reliant? How did the computer even know about that project, it's only been discussed between myself and my 2 year old daughter!
Major: This program is amazing sir. Have another star.
Task Mangler
A nice analogy when people think computers can make decisions or have "Artificial Intelligence" of any merit.
Pupil (Excited about AI):- I have just written a programme that writes music in the style of JS Bach.
Tutor (Seen it all before):- Really? How does that work then?
Pupil:- I programmed all of the known manuscripts by Bach and the computer uses that to write new compositions.
Tutor:- Great, can it write in the style of Mozart?
Pupil:- Sure, give me all the compositions by Mozart and I'll show you.
Tutor:- You mis-understand, can it decide, of it's own volition, to write in the style of Mozart.
Pupil:- Well, no it needs to base it's composition on something.
Tutor:- It has the entire works of Bach, is that not enough?
Pupil:- No, it needs the entire works of Mozart to write in the style of Mozart. Hell, even music students need to have heard Mozart in order to write in the style of Mozart.
Tutor:- Oh, so how did Mozart do it then?
America, Home of the Brave.