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Nanotech To Replace Disk Drives Within Ten Years?
Ian Lamont writes "An Arizona State University researcher named Michael Kozicki claims that nanotechnology will replace disk drives in ten years. The article mentions three approaches: Nanowires (which replace electrons/capacitors), multiple memory layers on silicon (instead of a single layer), and a method that stores multiple pieces of information in the same space: 'Traditionally, each cell holds one bit of information. However, instead of storing simply a 0 or a 1, that cell could hold a 00 or a 01. Kozicki said the ability to double capacity that way — without increasing the number of cells — has already been proven. Now researchers are working to see how many pieces of data can be held by a single cell.'"
"Nanotechnology will replace Hard drives in 10 years"
That's meaningless.
I think "Nano-technology will double disk capacity in 10 years" would be better, but still pretty silly.
As apposed to those giant 1s and 0s we use now.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
Whether or not nanotechnology replaces disk drives and digital storage media in ten years is only part of the question. What is likely is that one or more different technologies will start edging out typical magnetic storage in the coming decade. I am still waiting for my holographic storage media the size of a postage stamp.
Ok, the article is talking about science fiction solutions that have been demonstrated for single bits at universities, but nobody has any idea how to mass produce it.
Meanwhile flash memory in production is approaching feature sizes of 30 nanometers with 2 or even 4 bits stored per cell. Also stacking of several memory layers on the same die has been demonstrated.
oh nanotech is there anything you can't do ? oh except actually materialise into an actual product
That is the highest precision ever achieved in a binary digit.
Typically these are people looking for attention or funding. Most never deliver on their predictions. I have stopped listening a long time ago.
When some manufacturer announces a product to be shipped within a month, that is of interest. This "story" is not.
Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
... .. . .. . . ... .
You see periods are a lot smaller than zeros and spaces - which could be used as 1s - don't take any space at all.
It would be amazing if they could get a single cell to hold a whole byte instead of a bit. That would be some serious capacity there. Imagine your Zen, but with your DVD collection PLUS your music collection.
Neat. Also vaporware, but still neat.
+Raider of the lost BBS
w00t! No more electrons!
Traditionally, NAND flash memory that uses a single cell to encode two bits as one of four voltage levels is called "multi-level cell" (MLC) flash memory. MLC typically performs more slowly than single-level cell for two reasons: the amplifier attached to each bit line takes longer to settle to a specific value, and the error correction takes longer to process.
Multi-level cells are common in cheaper Flash. The first working prototypes must be something like 20 years in the past. Nothing new.
Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
Yay! More predictions on future technologies! My favourite!
Seriously though, nanowires replacing electrons? Neat, but what will replace the protons and neutrons?
However, instead of storing simply a 0 or a 1, that cell could hold a 00 or a 01
Mebbe it's just me, but "00 or 01" is no different than "0 or 1" except that it takes up twice as much space because of a (useless) leading zero.
There must be some point to this breakthrough, otherwise we need to expecting a massive spin-up in the magnetic core industry.
Welcome to the Panopticon. Used to be a prison, now it's your home.
But it's Nanotechnology! don't you get it, it'd going to be huge! It uses The Quantum!
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
Sounds like a two-bit technology to me.
A cell that can hold two bits holds four times as many possible values as a cell that can hold one bit.
[0] [1]
[00] [01] [10] [11]
Of course, two one-bit cells hold the same number of values.
[0][0] [0][1] [1][0] [1][1]
Two one-bit cells = one two-bit cell. Twice the capacity. Not that the article is terribly clear-- if their "miracle device" can really only hold 00 and 01, they've just invented a crappy new notation for binary.
Right, The Quantum of BS. Must not overlook that.
Lets see: I predict that there will be flying cars for everybody within 10 years. No, wait, that prediciton was made some decades ago. Computers that understand human speech, as in really understand and can have a conversation in 10 years. Hmm. No. Already done and some decades late by now. I have it: CPUs so fast that computers will become intelligent and do all the work in 10 years! Nope, already predicted, but CPU power was not actually the problem.
Hmm. I guess I am not as inventive as these people are.
Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
Where is the full-scale prototype?
I also pay very little attention to what people say we can do technology wise ten years from now, because it is hard to prognosticate what advances might alter said time-table, or whether or not another solution might even make your solution obsolete in those ten years.
When Toyota and Honda were giving a 10-year estimate on fuel cell cars, at the very least they had full scale, working prototypes that you could drive. When you have a full-scale prototype of this hard, let me know. In the mean time, typical hard drives keep increasing in space, while decreasing in size and price, even years after people keep insisting they've hit a wall and can't go any further. We just got a server in, with a full bank of 500 gig HDDs, each were the tiny laptop size. I can recall when they were struggling to produce 10 and 15 meg HDDs. And then we have flash storage, and solid-state technology, both which have working retail solutions today.
So please don't tell me what you might sell me 10 years from now, when you don't even have a prototype.
http://blindscribblings.com - Tasty pop-culture in conceptual fashion.
By comparison, nano-blaah is a long way off being able to demonstrate even a 1Mbyte storage, yet alone making it cheaply enough to be a mass storage player. I figure flash has a long life yet.
Engineering is the art of compromise.
Or the drive storage medium just shrink to nanotech sized bits...
With the 10 year estimate, does it really matter which way it happens? Either way, yes, the storage bits will be small.
The article is just using vague references to the "nanotech" buzzword as reference to non-moving-disk storage. I'm sure a tech will replace the magnetic bit storage being used now - it's inevitable.
-- Life is good. Tastes like chicken.
This is the same guy (different article) the was discussed earlier in the week... I am not trying to pimp my own submission; just trying to maybe provide more fodder for the discussion.
Bubble memory!
The impact of this article is based on the vagueness of the term "nanotechnology".
Much like the term "robot" which now includes radio controlled toy cars which it specifically did not include 15 years ago, Nanotechnology is a word which has developed a broader and broader meaning over time.
Nanotechnology used to be specific to microscopic moving parts. Micromachines. As people started to work on it they began to attempt to create parts using techniques from the silicon chip industry. the silicon chip industry therefor became nanotechnology as well, which is how those "memory cells" got into the whole thing.
These days it just means really really small stuff. If this is true wouldn't modern disk drives be nanotech too since the memory blocks are microscopically small?
To take it even further, you cold even include some kinds of paint and adhesive tape due to the way the glue and pigment particles adhere to surfaces or reflect light.
The word nanotech when used in this way is becoming so broad as to stop being useful. The word nanotechnology originally meant nanobots and that is what the term is most popularly accociated with in the public mind. It is the flavor of wild over the horizon borderline magic technology. people like to attach the word to whatever they are working on because it associates thier work with these feelings. It's not science it's brand recognition.
To use another term which was the ultra hip over used buzz word word back in the 70's, a more accurate way to describe the content would be to substitute the term "solid state". This merely says containing no moving parts. That wouldn't be particularly cool thoroughly since anyone looking at the laptop and smartphone industry can tell this is already happening.
Going from inventing the disk drive on through a whole series of continuing innovations, IBM ended up selling off their drive business to Hitachi last year or so. Perhaps one of the reasons is that in the long
term, they figure that disk drives are not going to be a technology driver.
I'm not even going to bother RTFM... with all the "leaps in technology" that have been promised over the years I should already have a couple terabytes in [take your pick of mediums - I am partial to grown crystals and fairy tears] memory sitting in my pocket MP3 player, with access speeds 100X faster than what has been available. Instead, I'm sitting here with the same HD technology and speeds in my computer that has been available for over a decade... and the price is still too high.
'nuff said.
Namaste
instead of storing simply a 0 or a 1, that cell could hold a 00 or a 01.
I'm sure it will be even better once they figure out how to make it store 10 and 11.
We have flying cars. There called 'Airplanes' we even have special places to park them called 'airports'
What, you thought a flying car would look the same as a non flying car? that's just silly.
I don't think anyone with actually knowledge of computers predicted the last two.
But yeah, I love how quantum is abused in every piece of vapor ware and psuedoscience.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
There are 10 types of people in the world: those who understand binary, and those who don't.
Any device made out of nanotechnology that serves the same function will be called a "disk drive" even if there's no disk in it.
USB connected flash memory is called a flash disk even today... etc.
I really hate articles where they say "plastic will replace cars" or "prefab concrete will replace houses". They're incompatible nouns. Try "Cars will be made from plastic" or "Houses will be made from prefab concrete" or "Disk drives will be made using nanotechnology".
I am government man, come from the government. The government has sent me. -- G.I.R.
The major issue of even these new technologies is their fragility:
their sensitivity to emp and moisture, their tendency toward bit rot, their propensity toward obsolescence, all placing in danger our records as individuals, society, and as a species. (think the original voyager data, the format has been lost iirc)
We have known about holographic crystal storage for decades now.
It's extremely high capacity and high throughput.
Best of all it's waterproof, immune to EMP, not subject to bit rot.
Data can be stored in the traditional binary or in microfilm style images, and can, when all else fails, be accessed visually.
misster anderson, one of these mediums has a future, the other does not, and the choice is yours.
VLC FOR MAC IS DYING! IF YOU DEVELOP, PLEASE SAVE IT!!
Oh no, death of the floppy!
...that this time it will take ten years.
Last time I read that nanotech would replace hard disks, it was only five years away. That was two years ago. I'm very happy to see this story tagged "again".
The question I'm left with is this: If it was going to take five years two years ago, and now it will take ten years, will it take fifteen years or twenty years in two years time? Answer me that and I may bother to RTFA. Hey, explain my own question to me in comprehensible terms and I'll be impressed.
I don't therefore I'm not.
Gives new meaning to, "but this one goes to 11"
There are no karma whores, only moderation johns
Hard drives are based on nanotech - They have features on the nanoscale.
What the submitter may mean is that magnetic storage might be supplanted by storage based on other state variables than magnetic domain orientation, or that non-binary storage (4-bit, etc.) may eventually supplant binary storage.
Duh.
Numerous entities are pursuing solid state storage (no moving parts), and have been for years. Flash, NAND, FeRAM, MI transition layers, phase change storage, and on and on...
But the fact is that currently, hard drives are the most cost-efficient mode of permanent data storage in most applications. In some cases, solid state is more advantageous. As those technologies are developed, one or more will eventually replace hard drives.
It will be solid state. It may or may not be binary. But it will be nanotech, just like hard drives.
Bad title aside, let's assume that "nanotech" means some variation of flash drives (otherwise, what exactly is replacing hard drives?). No matter what this tech turns out to be, and even assuming that it does come out and hits market saturation within 10 years, it is not going to replace hard drives for at least another 10. Hard drives have way too much of a legacy, and that includes cost benefit. You might be able to give us a 1TB flash drive in 10 years' time, but at what cost, and how big will HDs be by then?
Certainly, there will be increased competition for traditional HD technology, but replacing it outright is not going to happen for a long time. This is yet another sensationalist headline trying to make people think you can just up and replace a definitive component of a PC. There are still people buying CRTs today, and flat screens are a much more dramatic improvement than a flash disk.
"Someday you'll store all your music, movies, photos and favorite TV shows on something the size of an iPod. It'll all be right there,"
No. Someday, I will mostly store software on my equivalent of an iPod, media will be stored by Google (who everyone hates by then, since microsoft has become insignificant) in a semi-p2p network based on both servers and users. My download speed will be good enough to stream anything I want.
Basically, there are two trends I see i personal computing: Computers are becoming smaller and more portable (duh) and internet services are in increasing demand. This means the optimal future computer will be a tiny device with an extremely high speed internet connection. That is the opposite of great amounts of storage. Who needs to have music, movies, photos and TV shows when you can just have good internet access? You still need that if you want the very latest of anything anyway.
Where the fragility and power consumption makes a disk unattractive solid state storage will eat up niche after niche until it reaches parity with the capacity and performance of a disk. Then there will be no more disks. But what is cooler is that there are no 'read heads' that must move in solid state storage. There is no performance penalty for non-sequential access. This is what will radically change the kinds of things people can do, things that are just not possible now.
...
Bloody 2 bit computer.
So I lose ten years of data when a fruit fly tries to mate with the storage medium. Perfect.
I've calculated my velocity with such exquisite precision that I have no idea where I am.
Last time I purchased a vaporware product it just left my pockets all steamy.
Balderdash!
It's almost 2010 as is and it's embarassing beyond words that the pinnacle of our technological prowess is still dependent on multiple spinning wheels. Hell, I'm hoping today's computers have more in common with a cotton gin than the computers I'm using in 2020.
YIIKES! I didn't realize they were making nanowires small enough to replace electrons!!!
J
Let's add it to the pile of about 1500 new disk technologies, all to be faster, cooler, lower power, quiet, much much much larger than magnetic disks and coming to you 'in the next few years'
Nope, I haven't been reading articles like this every 6 months since I first picked up a PC magazine 16 years ago,.....
Here's the press release by Arizona State about this: http://asunews.asu.edu/20071023_nanotech
Meh. If you've got nanotech, why not create mechanical solid-state memory? According to [Drexler] pp. 366, you ought to be able to get, conservatively, 10^21 bits/cm^3 (a billion terabytes/cm^3) with a nanoscale mechanical mass-storage system, and better seek times than a traditional HD.
[Drexler] Nanosystems: Molecular machinery, manufacturing and computation; Drexler, K. Eric; 1992.
Why doesn't the gene pool have a life guard?
Ah yes, but can they replace my radio?
Harald
True, it is likely that some other technology will replaced HDD. False, current HDD are not nanoscale. I have an "old" HDD test sample that I use to demonstrate magnetic force microscopy (MFM) measurements. The bit are ~500nm wide. Also the tip radius of the head is typically 30nm. Flash is looking good, but the mfg capacity is currently no where near what the world would need to replace HDD. The price will be high at first. Hopefully, people will buy these drives. If the drive are commercially successful, then the mfg'ers will increase production and the price will drop. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
Yeah, he's smart about nanotech science, but he knows nothing about how technology goes through engineering and then - where it counts - through marketing. He has no idea how long this stuff will take to get to the market, let alone replace the stuff they'll be squeezing the most profits from once their own R&D is fully paid off.
--
make install -not war
He means personal flying cars 'for everybody'. In car analogies, your airplanes are public transport
which is totally what she said
This is awesome! In 10 years I'll just paint on my nano-tech storage onto my favorite flying car and just ultra-wi-fi those songs right into my brian via my wireless nuerojack! I just cant wait for 10 years!!!
A Chemistry professor at UBC told me this joke at a departmental party: Q: How do spell funding? A: n-a-n-o (professor jokes, what did you expect)
It took me a minute to spot it, but you're absolutely right. It's a law of the internet that if you correct somebody, you'll make a mistake yourself in the correction.
Four possible values, not four times as many values.
Apparently, I can't count.
w3rd. I recall many a gadget on Radio Shack shelves that pimped the term "Solid State" proudly on their cases. It had the vague impression that it was somehow higher quality, but in the end it was only a Taiwanese POS that had no moving parts. (in one case, there was a switch on the device that could not be moved... my introduction to irony)
The idea that nano-technology will "replace" anything is preposterous. As for the prediction; remember how there were predictions in the 50's about how robots would "replace people" as quickly as 1980? The notions that somehow all tedious/laborious/dangerous/noxious tasks would be handled by machines in the 21st century are still just that. (Just watch an episode of "Dirty Jobs" on Discovery to see what I mean.)
If anything, nanoTech is merely a better way of making something; a better starting material. Like plastic instead of wood, or graphite instead of steel. It has special properties that you can't find in other materials, but such is the contrast of many other synthetic materials at the times they were introduced.
How long will it be before we see shiny bursts on familiar products that pimp the phrase, "Now with nano-technology!" Yes, but does it mitigate the inherent crappiness of the product? That's the real question!
Like many others in this thread, I'm waiting to be impressed.
This post © Copyrite Duggeek, all rights reversed.
Speaking from bitter experience... just about any reporter can make even the smartest person sound as dumb as a post. Sensational headlines are more interesting than idle speculation. Yes, this new technology involves the use of "nanowires on demand" but the surrounding electronics are pretty-much living in the now (transistors and the like). So it might be "nanotechnology" but its not all that. Interestingly, people have made real chips with this nanowire memory stuff on board - Qimonda and Sony come up in my digging - although the capacity is waaaaaaay (waaaaaaaaaay) lower than terabyte thumb drives/disc drives/anything you can buy now. The good(?) news is that these companies have shown that both MLC (two bits per cell as in 00,01,10,11) and multiple layers are at least feasible and this "suggests" that the kind of densities you would need to do a solid state drive are not unattainable (unless I was not incorrectly misinformed). Triple negatives aside, I think we are going to see a lot more activity in solid state storage from the disc drive makers, especially now that the Evil Empire (aka Samsung) has started pushing out Flash-based laptop storage.
Computers can have a conversation with you (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA). (you just have to type your response) but then you could use something like (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_Naturally_Speaking)
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