Slashdot Mirror
The Gap Between Stats and Understanding In Flu Cases
KentuckyFC writes "Bird flu gets all the headlines but ordinary flu kills several orders of magnitude more people each year and represents a significant threat to our society. The frightening thing about ordinary flu is how little we understand about how it spreads. According to a report at the physics arXiv blog, researchers trying to model this process say they still don't know some basic probabilities associated with infection (pdf, abstract). For instance, given that the disease has manifested itself clinically in an individual, what are the chances of that person dying? And if a virus can be caught from a number of different host species (as it might eventually be with bird flu) what is the probability of transmission?"
Are you scared yet?
First, the flu shot is not universally recommended for everyone, but is certainly available to anyone in the US. It is recommended universally in young children and very old because of their high risk as well as those with co morbid conditions such as asthma or diabetes. Health care workers should get it to reduce the risk of spreading it to high risk patients.
Second, the data you referenced only used death as an end point. That is only one of several measures. For every death, the flu causes much more morbidity which is entirely ignored by you. It causes a huge numbers of hospitalizations and ICU stays which are incredibly expensive.
Third, very little money is made in vaccines. Primary care doctors are lucky if they don't loose money on vaccines. How do I know? I am a primary care doctor and its a wash between the cost of storing and purchasing them vs how much we get paid to give them. Manufactures almost have to be begged to make vaccines because there is little financial incentive to do so. Its not uncommon to have shortages occasionally because of this.
Forth, your referencing a radiologist to talk about an infectious disease / epidemiology problem. That's usually a red flag right there. For instance I know an orthopedic surgeon that argues quite well to the uneducated how evolution is genetically impossible. He's a doctor so the uneducated take his word and believe him. Problem is, he's a idiot outside orthopedics and anyone with half an education about genetics would butcher him. Another example would be this is like getting a plumbers opinion on what type of roof to put on your house. Would you do that?