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Chance for a Tunguska Sized Impact on Mars

Posted by Soulskill on from the flying-rocks-that-will-not-kill-us dept.

Multiple users have written to tell us of an LA Times report that an asteroid may hit Mars on January 30th. The asteroid is roughly 160 feet across, and JPL-based researchers say that it will have a 1-in-75 chance of striking Mars. Those odds are very high for this type of event, and scientists are hoping to witness an impact of a similar scope to the Tunguska disaster. From the LA Times: "Because scientists have never observed an asteroid impact -- the closest thing being the 1994 collision of comet Shoemaker-Levy with Jupiter -- such a collision on Mars would produce a 'scientific bonanza,' Chesley said."

11 of 184 comments (clear)

  1. *no signal* by 6Yankee · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It'll probably take something as dramatic as a direct hit from a meteorite to finish Spirit or Opportunity off.

  2. Bad for studying Mars? by Proud+like+a+god · · Score: 3, Insightful

    If it does hit or in some other way cloud the atmosphere of Mars, would this put the brakes on current and planned future studies of the planet?

    A few years of darkened skies could finish off the rovers, or require better orbiting surveillance equipment, no?

    1. Re:Bad for studying Mars? by bakuun · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I'd imagine that it's not big enough for that. Being in the same size class as the 1908 Tunguska asteroid, they should be fine (earth wasn't darkened by giant dust clouds in 1908, no?) While the article says that there will be a significant dust plume, I guess it'll seetle more rapidly and be more localized.

    2. Re:Bad for studying Mars? by Johnno74 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Even if it did, what we would learn would make it a more than fair trade. The mars rovers have done exceptionally well, but they won't last forever anyway. Its time to start thinking about the next generation of rovers, and manned missions back to the moon & to mars.

      Also, the massive publicity if there was a hit, with the sorts of pictures NASA would get would hugely increase public interest and support in making sure we can predict early enough and prevent the same thing never happens here.

    3. Re:Bad for studying Mars? by cheater512 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      This is just a baby. There will be some fireworks, a big boom and some excited NASA scientists. :)
      No extensive dust cloud or anything like that.

    4. Re:Bad for studying Mars? by Peter+Lake · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The Tunguska asteroid exploded in the atmosphere, it did not hit the ground and raise dust.
      If 2007-WD5 hits Mars it will probably not explode in the thin atmosphere but impact Martian soil and raise huge amounts of dust. Martian dust is fine-grained and lightweight, and can raise high in the atmosphere - as we have seen during the dust storms. So I guess the dust plume would not stay localized, and it could mean trouble for the rovers and even for the Phoenix-lander.

      On the other hand the impact-crater would be very interesting to probe!

      --

      All Rights Reversed.
  3. Occluded for 2 weeks??? Bull**** by Ponderoid · · Score: 2, Insightful
    According to the article:

    The asteroid is now behind the moon, he said, so it will be almost two weeks before observers can plot its course more accurately."

    Nothing in solar orbit can stay occluded by our moon for that long. That's for about half of the moon's orbit! If I'm wrong about that, someone please draw me a diagram. *mutters something about lousy science reporting*

    *** Ponder

  4. Tungusta "disaster"? by SamP2 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "Disaster" is a pretty hypy label for an event which led to no known loss of human life or property, and caused no significant environmental damage (yes, a lot of trees fell and some wildlife may have died, but it's not like it destroyed an ecosystem or led to an extinction of any species).

    Most modern industrial projects are a bigger "disaster" in this sense than Tunguska. The event should be referred to as "phenomenon", or maybe just a "boom", but not a "disaster".

  5. Re:Why? by iainl · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Except that the whole "nuclear winter" thing works by increasing the albedo of the planet. Venus is under constant, DEEP (the tropopause is at around 65km up) cloud cover already. Greenhouse effects massively outweigh the cooling from cloud cover.

    --
    "I Know You Are But What Am I?"
  6. Oh My GOD!!!! by eno2001 · · Score: 1, Insightful

    It's not an asteroid! It's Planet X! The Niburu are returning to enslave us all as has been predicted for centuries! There is a lot of good info out there on the internet about how the power elite on Earth have been in contact with the Niburu since some time in the 50s. Time has been manipulated and we've been fooled into thinking that where we are today is where we're supposed to be. But we were much more advanced technologically in the 1940s and 1950s until some of the other alien races started messing with our time stream. They've altered our reality and now we're powerless to defend ourselves against the Niburu. We're doomed! DOOMED!!!

    --
    -"...bad old ideas look confusingly fresh when they are packaged as technology" - Jaron Lanier (Digital Maoism on Edge.o
  7. If the crater is a kilometer away... by argent · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If the crater is a kilometer away, then I'm sure it will be visited. If it's 10,000 km away, then it will have to wait for a completely new rover mission.

    If the crater is a kilometer away, then it's unlikely the rover will be in any state to visit it, or even report its state, and it will have to wait for a new rover mission anyway. :)