Chance for a Tunguska Sized Impact on Mars

Multiple users have written to tell us of an LA Times report that an asteroid may hit Mars on January 30th. The asteroid is roughly 160 feet across, and JPL-based researchers say that it will have a 1-in-75 chance of striking Mars. Those odds are very high for this type of event, and scientists are hoping to witness an impact of a similar scope to the Tunguska disaster. From the LA Times: "Because scientists have never observed an asteroid impact -- the closest thing being the 1994 collision of comet Shoemaker-Levy with Jupiter -- such a collision on Mars would produce a 'scientific bonanza,' Chesley said."

Comments

Re:Bad for studying Mars?

[Johnno74]

Even if it did, what we would learn would make it a more than fair trade. The mars rovers have done exceptionally well, but they won't last forever anyway. Its time to start thinking about the next generation of rovers, and manned missions back to the moon & to mars.

Also, the massive publicity if there was a hit, with the sorts of pictures NASA would get would hugely increase public interest and support in making sure we can predict early enough and prevent the same thing never happens here.

Re:Bad for studying Mars?

[Peter Lake]

The Tunguska asteroid exploded in the atmosphere, it did not hit the ground and raise dust.
If 2007-WD5 hits Mars it will probably not explode in the thin atmosphere but impact Martian soil and raise huge amounts of dust. Martian dust is fine-grained and lightweight, and can raise high in the atmosphere - as we have seen during the dust storms. So I guess the dust plume would not stay localized, and it could mean trouble for the rovers and even for the Phoenix-lander.

On the other hand the impact-crater would be very interesting to probe!