IBM's Five Predictions for the Future

StonyandCher writes "IBM has released its second annual set of 'Next Five in Five' predictions. The company's crystal ball also revealed that the long-simmering trend toward "smart energy" devices will proliferate wildly. "Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid, making it possible to turn them on and off using your cell phone or any Web browser," a company statement asserts."

Comments

Five years or decades?

[Original Replica]

The company said that during the next five years, a "wave of connectivity" between vehicles and roadways will help keep traffic flowing smoothly

Yeah the theoretical technology might exist, but major improvements to the national infrastructure will take decades to implement.

"Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid,

Again this require a major improvement to parts of the infrastructure. On top of that, my parents already own all the appliances they want, they will not likely get many new ones anytime in the next five years. Maybe an HDTV.

For example, phones will enable users to snap a photo of an article of clothing, pull in results from the Web about the brand and where to buy it, and then render the garment on top of a 3-D image of the user, IBM said.

Many stores I have been in do not let you photograph the merchandise, if you can suddenly comparison shop the goods in any given store I can only see that policy getting stronger.

This article sounds more like "The World of Tomorrow" than something I would expect out of a respected technology company.

Re:Every component smart, but one

[Unoti]

We're getting so sheltered and pussywhipped that we won't be able to function as an independent species within a few decades

You're probably right, but it's not really a bad thing. I can sure type faster and program computers better than my grandfather could. Don't think of humans in isolation. Think of them in combination with their technology. We may be wimpier in many ways compared to our ancestors. But if you make the comparison including our current technologies then we're advancing quite rapidly. We have longer life expectancy due to medical technology and better knowledge of health and nutrition. If you think of humans in a broad sense that includes knowledge and technology, then our progress as a race is stunning. We're better in countless ways now than we were just a short time ago, and getting better faster than we ever have before.

oh please...

[apodyopsis]

..spare me this drivel.

somebody please give me an example of why I should ever want to control my dishwasher from my phone or my web browser.

the only intelligence I want in my gadgets it on the lines of smart machines that can detect the load and vary the power consumption and resource usage accordingly. possibly the only interaction I would want is a little minimalist chime to alert me that the cycle or current operation has finished and some human interaction is needed.

*everything* else should work behind the scenes to my benefit to save power or alert me when the washing powder is running low.

interaction by web browser? what utter rot. I would say "whatever next, a fridge with a built in web browser?" but I remember talk of such stuff a few years ago...

Mod Parent Up

[maillemaker]

I agree entirely. If I have to tell my appliances how to behave, then it is /I/ who am smart, not the appliance.

Smart would be if I set a monthly power budget and all my appliances figure out together how to best achieve their jobs within that budget.

Energy will be the next issue

[tacocat]

I don't think there will be that much interest in smart appliances like they describe. I think this is a technological path to consider, but it will be over ruled by the fact that we, as a planet, are running out of per capita energy.

We may be able to create a lot of energy, but the per capita demand worldwide is growing such that Americans (who consume more energy per capita) will experience a severe energy shortage and as such, the focus will not be on more appliances that are smart and therefore have a passive load on the household grid, but focus on appliances that actually stop using all electricity when you turn them off. Many don't these days because of the hot start design features.

For the rest of this decade the US will experience energy shortages in terms of higher gasoline prices, higher heating gas prices, and higher electricity prices (and summer shortages). This will force us to reconsider a lot of the appliances that we already have and re-prioritize what we want in future appliances.

Re:My first prediction

[RobertM1968]

These new web controllable appliances will be vulnerable to exploits, resulting in someone's house burning down a house after a hacker turns on their stove.

Perhaps - if they become commonplace. There (for many years) have been controllable "appliances"... this is just an expansion of something that already existed. With stuff from SmartHome or X10, one could already control lights, AC, heat, security systems (with "back-links" to lights, and other stuff), locks and certain appliances via the web (and of course from home computers and dedicated/semi-dedicated consoles). Dishwashers (washing machines, dryers, etc) are something not yet on the "total control" aspect of such products... but I dont even see a need for that other than the "because I can" factor... why load a dishwasher and then wait to get to work/a friend's to go online to tell it to turn on (again, other than the "because I can" factor)?