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Google's Prediction Market

Googling Yourself writes "Employees at Google are encouraged to place bets on Google's prediction market — an exchange that tries to forecast events based on the money wagered on a particular outcome. Employees have made wagers with play money (Goobles, as in rubles) on questions like: will Google open a Russia office? will Apple release an Intel-based Mac? how many users will Gmail have at the end of the quarter? One tangible benefit to the company is that the market allows Google to track how information disseminates in the company. A paper called "Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google" discusses information flows in the company based on the prediction market data and contains many other interesting observations of Google culture. (pdf)"

7 of 94 comments (clear)

  1. I'm surprised by $RANDOMLUSER · · Score: 2, Funny

    That they use "Goobles" to wager with; I'd have expected Quatloos.

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    No folly is more costly than the folly of intolerant idealism. - Winston Churchill
  2. Re:I predict... by rasman1978 · · Score: 2, Funny

    And it will stay "beta" for 2.5 years.

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    MHNATY.
  3. My Bet by Nom+du+Keyboard · · Score: 4, Funny

    will Apple release an Intel-based Mac?

    I'm betting yes. So when do my stock options arrive?

    --
    "It's the height of ridiculousness to say for those 9 lines you get hundreds of millions."
  4. I wonder by GroeFaZ · · Score: 4, Funny

    Will this post be moderated +5, Funny?

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    The grass is always greener on the other side of the light cone.
    1. Re:I wonder by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      No.

  5. High Definition by dsmitchell1 · · Score: 2, Funny

    What does it say about the outcome of the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray battle? I want to buy my player now!

  6. Re:Employee Games the system by steveha · · Score: 3, Funny

    I wonder if he got fired or got a raise?

    Maybe he just got a commendation for original thinking.

    steveha

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    lf(1): it's like ls(1) but sorts filenames by extension, tersely