Modeling Urban Panic

Schneier is reporting that Arizona State University's Paul Torrens has been developing a computer simulation to model urban panic. "The goal of this project is to develop a reusable and behaviorally founded computer model of pedestrian movement and crowd behavior amid dense urban environments, to serve as a test-bed for experimentation." The simulation tests behaviors from how a crowd flees from a burning car to how a pathogen might be transmitted through a mobile pedestrian over time among others.

Comments

I can answer one of these

[Malevolent Tester]

5) identify, if possible, the tell-tale signs of a peaceful crowd about to metamorphosize into a hellish mob;

Riot police. I've seen several demonstrations turn violent, and every single time it was preceded by riot police either attacking people (I've seen Metropolitan Police TSG hit a pregnant woman for talking back to them), herding people into an enclosed space and beating those who try and get out or baton charging a peaceful crowd.*

*This is not to say the police cause all riots, but they're certainly a factor in at least some of them.

Re:Yes but can it model...

[Amorymeltzer]

I think you might find this interesting, if you haven't seen it before. It's a cool little zombie infection simulation. Not complex, but has some cool ideas, such as having non-panicked people becoming panicked when they see another human who is panicked.

Psychohistory here we come!

[GeekZilla]

I welcome our new Second Foundation overlords!

Hey! Get that Mule out of here!

Significant problem...

[RingDev]

The demo they show of the modeler shows scenarios where the subjects want to get to some place. That's neat and all, but in a panic, people aren't trying to get TO some place, they are trying to get AWAY from some place.

-Rick

Re:You need a simulation for this?

[phobos13013]

It could be, but I believe some parameters of the modeling AI need to be changed. Take a look at the massive crowd evacuating through the small aperture. The crowds on the fringe just stand there and pile up while the late-comers in the middle flow right through since the fringes dont move. In a real crowd (even under regular evacuation measures and not one in a "panic") would never go for this! People would constantly be trying to overcome the person not moving in front of them! The fringe individuals would immediately relocate to the center which is dwindling in length.

I don't think this model takes a lot of human behavior into consideration. One requirement could be that the individuals never stop moving, they will always take the available (open) path towards the exit even if it is not the straight line path which they are lined up in queue for. It also doesn't take into the consideration of a possibility of a trample situation where perhaps a threshold value of energy from a surging crowd overcomes the resistance of the small group of slower moving individuals in front. But of course, this is a great start for a complex computational issue!

Re:Yes but can it model...

[jollyreaper]

a zombie attack? And if so, can it compensate for the differences between slow-moving George Romero zombies and fast-moving British zombies? And can the system tell the difference between a cult classic and a crass hollywood remake?