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Motley Fool Writes Off Microsoft
The Vista disaster has caught Wall Street's attention before but I've never seen the popular press understand the issues like this argument in the Motley Fool. The opposing argument is a weak statement of faith, essentially "as it was in the beginning is now and forever shall be." "You don't need to watch the 'I'm a Mac, I'm a PC' commercials to see that Microsoft is taking a beating. You see it in the company's financials where its online unit, incredibly, is operating at a loss; overheating Xbox 360 consoles find the company taking a huge warranty hit for a system losing market share to the Wii; and the upgrade wave of its flagship operating system has been more of a ripple than a tsunami. That last point is important. This was supposed to be Microsoft's final feast, the major last hurrah for its Windows Vista operating entry and its Office 2007 suite of applications before the inevitable embrace of cheaper open source operating systems and Web-based apps... In fact, even Microsoft will tell you that its fortunes peaked several months ago."
MSFT shares are up 3% today after another strong rise yesterday, after announcing their financial results and outlook.
Here's hoping HD DVD's troubles means that they'll remove all the "secure path" BS from Windows 7. They only did it to placate Hollywood, and it's a major reason why Vista had developmental problems. (Note, they'd have had to do it too if they were supporting Blu-ray instead - the point though is that I'd like to see Microsoft throw a tantrum and remove a "feature" they should never have added in the first place.)
You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
While I can see this as a mark of the beginning of the end for Microsoft I really wouldn't write them off just yet. They still have a metric butt-ton of market share, and are still overall profitable. Should they manage to stop the hemorrhaging of cash with the XBox (Which I can easily foresee) and come up with a good reply to Vista (Like they did with Windows ME/Then Windows 2000), then I can see them rebounding quick.
However, I also see the general public becoming more and more sophisticated when it comes to things like Operating Systems and understanding that there are indeed options out there. And with knowledge of options will come people exercising those options.
In other words there's a up and down roller coaster ride ahead but this ride may be coming to a full and complete stop.
But people failed to beat a path to the PS/2; they waited, and used things like EISA until PCI came along and was roughly as good as Micro Channel. IBM finally learned that they didn't own the PC market anymore.
IBM's still around but isn't a colossus astride the computing industry. Microsoft has now discovered that the competition is "good enough" and the Microsoft name isn't enough to force people to follow along with whatever they say. Like IBM, MS isn't going away... but they'll be one option among many in a few years, not the single dominant giant.
PHEM - party like it's 1997-2003!
I thought Vista was an interim OS between XP and Windows 7?
If you haven't made a developer cry, you've wasted a day.
But it's in the first article, not the second.
ZOMG, people are specifying XP instead of Vista! Sure, but they're still buying Microsoft. Apple is topping out its niche appeal, and corporations are run by lawyers who hate and fear Google Docs with a cold reptilian passion.
Wise up, nerds. Major purchasing decisions are not taken by people live with their parents in Wyoming. They are taken by grown ups who have mortgages and orthodentist bills to pay, and those people recommend, and will continue to recommend, Microsoft because nobody ever got sacked for doing so.
The upcoming recession may see a few smaller outfits switch to freeware in the hope of chiselling a few dollars off the budget, but that's probably a sign that they're doomed, and so wouldn't have been buying M$ one way or the other.
Still, I'm swimming against the tide of opinion here, if not of history, so feel free to get excited about the prospect of the Evil Empire toppling any day now. Let's compare notes in 5 years and we can spot where you went wrong.
If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
Vista is not Micro Channel. Vista is Windows ME.
It's not about the money. Want to make more? Just run the printing presses faster. Money hasn't been reliable enough to be used as a measure of performance for nearly a decade now.
Really it's about influence, and that's what Microsoft are losing, have been for several years.
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What you are missing is Microsoft started paying out annual dividends starting in........... 2004! Plus some fairly aggressive stock buyback.
Frankly, their cash reserves have dwindled because simply put, sitting on 60 billion worth of cash is just dumb.
Nope.
As long as you have the ability to maintain your software, it will
never wear out. You can always train someone else to be the
maintenance monkey. Admittedly, this only works for software where
you have the source.
This does NOT necessarily imply "Free Software".
Saavy companies get the source to important applications so they
can maintain those systems if necessary. Software like that can
(and has) last longer than most of us here have been alive.
Also, the world (or technology) isn't as dynamic as a lot of people would like to think.
A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.