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Defunct Spy Satellite Falling From Orbit

dnormant, among other readers, sent us word that a US spy satellite has lost power and propulsion and could hit the Earth in late February or March. Government officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the information is classified as secret. None of the coverage speculates on how big the satellite is, but Wikipedia claims that US spy satellites in the KH-11 class, launched up to the mid-90s, are about the size of the Hubble — which is 13 meters long and weighs over 11,000 kg. "The satellite, which no longer can be controlled, could contain hazardous materials, and it is unknown where on the planet it might come down... A senior government official said that lawmakers and other nations are being kept apprised of the situation."

16 of 312 comments (clear)

  1. physics problem by Heem · · Score: 5, Funny

    OK, someone do the math:

      How thick of a tinfoil hat would I have to put on top of my house to protect it from a 12-ton satellite?

    --
    Don't Tread on Me
  2. Jesus... by SpectreBlofeld · · Score: 5, Interesting

    No joke. I had no idea they were that massive.

    Do they use solar panels for power? Seems to me that they'd want to keep as low a profile as possible, which would eliminate the large profile created by solar panels.

    Which leaves radioisotope thermoelectric generation as the power source - which would mean there's plutonium (or another highly radioactive material) in these things.

    Yikes...

    1. Re:Jesus... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Why keep a so-called "low profile"? What does that even mean for an object in a mathematically defined movement, made of metal, against the (essentially) empty radar background of space?

      It's not as if it's hard for the Russians/Chinese/etc to figure out where our satellites are. That's why the SR-71 was considered so valuable for so long - you didn't know days in advance when one was going to show up.

    2. Re:Jesus... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      Posting as AC for NDA reasons.

      It's common knowledge in NASA that lots of US satellites are nuclear powered. It's actually not that dangerous, if it blows in re-entry it will go over a big enough area to just fade into the background radiation, and if it comes down in one piece they can go gather it up. However, people are so worried about such things they would never admit it. This "may contain dangerous materials" is the closest you'll ever get to an admission.

    3. Re:Jesus... by RaySnake · · Score: 5, Informative

      Your post contains the sort of interesting truths and half-truths from which conspiracy theories grow. I'll try to add to the true parts while keeping things interesting. The US does currently have several nuclear powered space vehicles, all of them deep space missions and all of the powered by RTGs. (Voyager I/II, Poineer I/II, Cassini, New Horizon, etc) RTGs are different from reactors in that they are passive devices relying on spontaneous isotopic decay and therefore have a fairly constant (but decreasing) power output. Reactors meanwhile have a feedback loop controlling the energy and number of neutrons available to initiate fission and so have variable power output. The reasons RTGs are used for deep space vehicles are that they're economical and simple. Because of the pesky inverse square law for illumination intensity solar panels start becoming more expensive than RTGs somewhere around the asteroid belt. Relative to fast reactors like SNAP-10 and the Russian TOPAZ RTGs are child's play and dead safe. RTGs are also much less harmful in the case of a launch accident since the plutonium oxide fuel is an alpha emitter and is encased in metal anyway. The US has only launched one satellites a nuclear reactor, SNAP-10A which was expensive and only lasted 43 days. Since it was unreliable in addition to being horrendously expensive the US stopped pursuing reactors in space since since other technologies were better fits. Fortunately for us the Russians probably thought we turned it into a black program and started furiously testing nuclear reactors on satellites. Consequently the Russians have the most experience with reactors in space since they have launched over 30. If we ever need a space craft with over 100KW of power where reactors become cost effective I'm sure we'll be looking at their designs.

    4. Re:Jesus... by st1d · · Score: 5, Interesting

      >>Somebody will call me an idiot for considering the laws of optics instead of pure scifi as on other threads - but due to having a highly elliptical orbit the things spend some time grazing the atmosphere so air resistance is actually a factor. Big solar panels would slow it down and it would deorbit more quickly and require more fuel to stay up there.

      Idiot. :) True though.

      >>As a result they have a nuclear power source, most likely similar to that on the soviet Kosmos series that performed the same role.

      Not really. The solar panels would be blocked by the earth a significant amount of time each orbit, which would require more batteries charging faster to keep the whole mess from slowly bleeding power. That means the solar panes would have to be significantly larger the closer you orbited. Design and weight issues probably make nuclear a better option. Also, last thing you want is to lose your eyes in the sky during an engagement because some piece of space junk just tore a hole through your panels. Nuclear systems can be protected better, which is also far more important the closer you are to the planet, as years of space exploration debris make orbiting objects virtual pincushions.

      >>The highly ellipical orbit is so that they can get close to take high resolution images.

      It's to save fuel. You can get/stay close, but you're going to be burning through fuel at an enormous rate. On the other hand, an elliptical orbit allows you to move the focal point of your trajectory outside where most people would assume it was. This allows you to follow/lag the planet as it orbits the sun, using earth's gravity well to propel your spacecraft. Basically, you keep aiming for where the planet will be, using the earth's mass to slingshot you around each time as both objects arrive and "pass" each other.

      >>The theoretical resolving power of a perfect lens at a given wavelength is determined by distance - so it does not matter how good the optics are the closer you get the better the image you can get.

      You've obviously never used a pair of high power binoculars inside. You're right about the lens, but most of these "lenses" aren't wavelength specific, if any are. They're far more likely to cover a fairly large range of wavelengths, even if they're marketed as just infrared, ultraviolet, etc. In those cases, the theoretical perfects are meaningless. Most of these aren't single lens systems anyway, even the older ones used multiple and movable lensing systems, as flexibility is often the real design goal, far above perfection. You could design a lens that can count the hairs on your head, but if it only has the ability to view that resolution, you're pretty much hosed for 99% of your missions. Same for single use systems, such as optical or wavelength-specific viewers.

      And getting close isn't always a good idea. The recent Chinese gaming is a good example. If close was a panacea, they'd be designing these things to rip through the atmosphere at incredible speeds, essentially doing a kind of reentry every so often. If their orbits were designed correctly they wouldn't necessarily even burn that much fuel, they'd just take forever to complete each orbit as they restored momentum. Would be a little unnerving to see fireballs tear through the sky every couple minutes, but like everything else, I suppose we'd even adapt to the sonic booms.

      Nope, the whole idea of spy satellites is stealth. Everyone knows they're up there, but they're used with the idea that you'll either forget about them, assume they're pointed elsewhere, or screw up somehow. Having them flash through the sky on a regular basis would only enhance the measures you'd take to cover your tracks, and no resolution can correct for that.

      Oh, and most of them are more geared towards communications intercepts anyway, picking up handhelds and other local command communication devices. Photos are good, but knowing what your enemy is going to do next is much more fun. :)

      --
      Microsoft has just released their much anticipated hands-free cordless mouse. Warning, it may hurt a little at first.
  3. These things kill. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    When Skylab hit the cow, the American government refused to compensate.

  4. EMP or BSOD? by russlar · · Score: 5, Funny

    I'm guessing these things don't just shut down on their own. So, readers of /., which is more likely the cause?

    1. Focused EMP from the surface?

    or

    2. It was running Windows.

    --
    Anybody want my mod points?
  5. Re:The size of the Hubble? by BWJones · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Physics essentially defines how big an object is that can be resolved from space which is (until recently) about 10cm optimal given the best altitude, angle of the sun and angle of captured image with perfect atmospheric conditions. Currently most satellite in orbit are using standard optics. However, using a newer technology called adaptive optics, images can be obtained that allow for much higher resolution. Some examples of ground based adaptive optics imaging of satellites can be seen here , but space based adaptive optics work is an area of very active interest in a variety of fields from science to intelligence.

    --
    Visit Jonesblog and say hello.
  6. here it is by lecithin · · Score: 5, Informative

    That will be USA 193 (06-057A, #29651). This is it's current orbit:

    USA 193
    1 29651U 06057A 08022.26925691 0.00105000 00000-0 21306-3 0 07
    2 29651 58.5247 160.3977 0003288 53.6760 306.3240 15.98950761 06

    Lowest point is about 275 km above earth surface currently.

    This under the right conditions is an easy to see object: it can reach magnitude
    +1 and because of its low orbit is very fast, spectacular to see.

    source: Marco Langbroek

    picture in orbit:

    http://mysite.wanadoo-members.co.uk/satcom_transits/USA193Sepbw1.jpg

    http://mysite.wanadoo-members.co.uk/satcom_transits/193bw.jpg

    Note, no solar panels.

    --
    It could be worse, it could be Monday.
    1. Re:here it is by theNAM666 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      If USA-193, via Milcom, it's only been up since DEC-06 and may be something other than the ordinary monitoring platform:

      USA-193/NROL-21 Launch specifics:
      Launch date/time: December 13, 2006 2100 UTC 16:00 EST
      Launcher: Delta 2/7920-10
      Launch location: Western Test Range, Vandenberg AFB, California
      Launch complex/pad: SLC2W
      International Designator: 2006-057A
      SSC #: 29651
      Latest orbital parameters: 376 by 354 km orbit (91.83 minute period), inclined 58.5 degress.

      Ted Molczan posted the preliminary orbital elset below on SEESAT-L:

      USA 193 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 v
      1 29651U 06057A 06350.25405986 .00011325 00000-0 10000-3 0 03
      2 29651 58.4865 114.2852 0013244 81.7541 278.5044 15.68046894 05
      WRMS error = 0.026 deg

      Ted noted the following observations in his post:

      "The ground track nearly repeats every 2 days (30.92 revs), enabling frequent revisit of observational targets of interest. The first four Lacrosses behaved similarly (28.9 revs in 2 days). Lacrosse 5 makes 43.05 revs in 3 days. Keyholes nearly repeat every 4 days; NOSS every 4 days."

      Looking at the early Lacrosse satellite missions, Ted is correct, but, of course, the Lacrosse radar imaging missions are launched into much higher altitude orbits (nearly double the height of NROL-21).

      Intl Desig SSC # USA Number Period Inc Apogee Perigee
      *1988-106B 19671 USA 034 97.91 56.98 660 657
      1991-017A 21147 USA 069 98.00 68.00 667 660
      *1997-064A 25017 USA 133 98.22 57.35 674 673 [Replaced Lacrosse 1]
      2000-047A 26473 USA 152 98.47 67.99 690 681 [Replaced Lacrosse 2]
      *2005-016A 28646 USA 182 99.08 57.01 718 712 [Replaced Lacrosse 3]
      * Indicates a 57 degree inclination orbit, just 1.5 degree off the Lacrosse 57 deg inc plane.

      As Jonathan McDowell points out in his Jonthan's Space Report Next Issue Draft:
      "In contrast to most secret launches, analysts appear to have little clue as to what this payload may be."

      My best guess, at this early stage, is that this is probably some sort of mission sensor platform other than a visual photo recon imaging mission. It also could be a new sensor development mission. But that is "only" a best guess!

  7. Note by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    John added the solar panels in the first image.

    see the following note from him:

    http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2008/0204.html

  8. Re:why do we care by Deadstick · · Score: 5, Informative
    historically these things tend to land in the ocean

    Hardly surprising, since "in the ocean" means 80% of the Earth's surface...

    To put this in perspective, consider that over thirty thousand meteorites have been found on the ground. There's one in Oregon that weighs sixteen tons; the rate of impacts, found and unfound, has been estimated at 500 per day worldwide.

    Know anybody who's been hit?

    Actually, a few people -- a very few -- have. The surface of the Earth is a big place, and not a very big fraction of it is covered by people.

    rj

  9. KH-11 details by Cliff+Stoll · · Score: 5, Informative

    KH-11 series spacecraft were called the Key Hole satellites - they were the first large reconnaissance spacecraft to send images directly to earth; previous spy satellites used film return (clumsy, slow, and unreliable). KH-11's used CCDs - quite advanced for a system developed in the late 1970's.

    The seven KH-11 spacecraft had primary mirrors of 2.3 to 2.4 meters. The system provided an ultimate ground resolution between 15 to 50 cm at closest approach (perigee); actual resolution was quite a bit worse.

    There's no nuclear battery on board -- power came from 11 unfolded solar panels (which, on the first Key Hole satellites didn't provide quite enough power during downlinks!). I assume the main danger to earthlings is due to the reentry of the main mirror. Since the KH-11s are in polar orbits, the debris could come down anywhere on earth, with a one-in-four chance of hitting land.

    The KH-11 spy satellites were developed in parallel with the Hubble Space Telescope, and the same contractors worked on both. In fact, the KH-11 uses much the same hardware (carbon-graphite support system, front door hatch system, data-relay dish through communications satellites). Because of the secrecy surrounding the KH-11 development, the Space Telescope project often saw similar secrecy. Indeed, astronomers were discouraged (or barred) from much of the engineering of the Hubble Space Telescope.

  10. Insurance by Whiteox · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Most insurance cover specifically includes statements that any space debris (including falling satellites) will not be covered.
    So it's every geek for themselves!
    I believe the clause was written in years ago when Sputnik fell to Earth. That goes for meteors, blue ice, rocket stages and acts of God (whatever that means).

    --
    Don't be apathetic. Procrastinate!
  11. Re:Peru? by JWSmythe · · Score: 5, Funny

    Please refer to the following chart, to avoid misidentification of "unidentified" flying objects.

    https://freeinternetpress.com/mirrors/usaf/airforce-id-chart.jpg

    --
    Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.