Slashdot Mirror
Yahoo Bid shows Microsoft on the Ropes
Ponca City, We Love You writes "One day after the announcement of Microsoft's plan to buy Yahoo, there is an interesting piece from the NY Times analyzing the reasons behind Microsoft's bid and proposing that the bid is a tacit, and difficult, admission that Microsoft did not get its online business right and that online losses continue to mount while Google makes billions in profit. Microsoft "finds itself in a battle where improving its search algorithms and online ad software is not going to be enough," writes the Times. With the Yahoo bid Microsoft is trying to buy a big enough share of the market to be a credible alternative to Google with online advertisers. "This shows just how worried Microsoft is by Google," says David B. Yoffie. "Microsoft has faced competitive threats before, but none with the size, strength, profitability and momentum of Google.""
Look at for example GEC/Marconi. It can happen.
People aren't buying Windows Vista and Office 2007 because they have Windows XP and Office 2003 that does the job just fine, and possibly better, and it costs nothing to continue using it. None of their other attempts to diversify - Zune, X Box, Windows Live etc have been very succesful, so there are problems ahead.
They aren't bankrupt yet, but they are taking action to try and avoid it while they still can.
Microsoft has been overconfident in its approach to the internet from day one. First by believing they could deploy an alternative, then ignoring the Netscape threat early on instead of buying them outright (back when they were still up for sale for a few hundred million). They repeated the same mistake with the search engine market, with a myriad of failed search engine initiatives from within rather than buying outright an external player.
About a decade ago, Microsoft balked at paying $8M for one of the key players, about three years ago, they were wincing at spending $20M in a decent search engine effort. "You'll end up paying billions for a search engine company if you don't spend this money now", was my advice. They didn't listen and here we are $46 billion dollars later after the FAST and Yahoo! acquisition.
That sounds like a full-fledged hostile takeover threat to me... "we can do this the easy way, or the hard way."
I think we can all agree that what Microsoft needs most is a complete change of corporate culture, not Yahoo. This would require a complete replacement of at least 80% of the Microsoft brass, however, so it's not likely to happen until the company is near-dead.
However, if Microsoft realizes that they need to change their corporate culture to attract a bigger audience/customer base, but doesn't want to go through the hassle of actually doing it, then theres one VERY EASY way to impart this realization onto the purchase of Yahoo: for the love of fucking god, DONT FUCK WITH YAHOO!! That means: no changing their servers from FOSS to Windows, no firing all of their managers, and no adulterating Yahoo's way of doing things with Microsoft's shittastic attitude (among other things).
Looking at the market's response to this announcement, it seems that the merged YHOO+MSFT are worth at least $6.5 billion less than they were as separate entities. Yesterday MSFT lost $19.3 billion in market cap, but YHOO only gained $12.8. (If you factor in NASDAQ's overall rise, then these numbers are even worse -- suggesting perhaps a $9 billion loss of value from the merger.)
Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do.
Actually, I was helping my neighbour with their new computer the other day, and when I pointed out that you didn't need to pay $150 for Office 2007 Home&Student to write letters, they were very open to the idea of trying out OOo. I think they'll be very happy with it, mostly because they saved $150.
The Ascension of Ballboy to the Throne of Microsoft is the clearest sign that Microsoft has weak senior management and is embarrassingly impoverished in vision.
Ballboy's unwillingness to speak the name of the "fucking guys" he was supposed to "kill" years ago shows how charmless and obsessive he can be. He is like a less personable Joseph Stalin with no big fur hat. His reign of terror will come to an end when Microsoft's shareholders start worrying about ~their~ value.
Microsoft has muscle, big teeth and claws and a walnut-sized brain. People like a company with cool ideas and vision. Google hits many notes perfectly. Apple hits some notes extremely well. Sun can sing but its ears are plugged. IBM gave up singing and now likes to set up the microphones. And Microsoft is the Michael Bolton of software.
Rich And Stupid is not so bad as Working For Rich And Stupid.
Just about everything you said is incorrect. You said:
You said: People aren't buying Windows Vista and Office 2007 because they have Windows XP and Office 2003 that does the job just fine, and possibly better, and it costs nothing to continue using it.
But the facts are: "Better-than-expected worldwide PC shipments, tougher anti-piracy measures and growing numbers of businesses switching to long-term volume software licenses helped boost revenue for the two Microsoft divisions responsible for Windows and Office to a total of $9.14 billion, 50 percent more than a year ago."
Microsoft has never depended on people going out and buying Windows and Office as shrinkwrapped software. People buy them when they buy computers because it is the easiest thing to do.
You said: . None of their other attempts to diversify - Zune, X Box, Windows Live etc have been very succesful, so there are problems ahead.
But the facts are: "The division responsible for the Xbox 360 video game system swung to a profit on rising sales of games and accessories, which deliver better margins than the console itself. Microsoft said the division is still on track to be profitable in fiscal 2008."
You said: They aren't bankrupt yet, but they are taking action to try and avoid it while they still can.
But the facts say: "Microsoft blew by Wall Street's expectations for a second consecutive quarter." (announced just a couple of weeks ago) Quantitatively speaking they are not only "not bankrupt yet" but not even heading in that direction.
My reference: http://www.kval.com/news/business/14266747.html
Do I think that all is well in Microsoft land? No way: but no massively profitable company with a gargantuan bank account can be said to be "on the ropes". There is a big difference with "perhaps pointed in the wrong direction" and "on the ropes". It would be more accurate to say: "There are indications in the early rounds of fighting that the current champ will have to adjust strategy to win against a promising upstart competitor."
I'm no Microsoft fanboy: I think that they need to fire Ballmer and reform the culture. But that's actually an easier thing to do than the sorts of things that their competitors need to do to become as entrenched and powerful as Microsoft is. Or to put it another way: Microsoft will lose if they don't adjust strategy, but the fight is still theirs to lose. i.e. they are a bit bloodied, not "on the ropes".