Government Report Examines Alternative Energy Research
coondoggie points us to a NetworkWorld story about the Government Accountability Office's report on the state of advanced energy technology. The report notes that despite continued funding [PDF], U.S. reliance on oil has only dropped from 93% to 85% since 1973. It goes on to evaluate how the most prominent fields of research have developed in that time period, and where they are likely to go in the future.
The consumption of oil has grown by "leaps and bounds" because oil was severely underpriced.
http://www.sierraclub.org/globalwarming/cleancars/cafe/briefing_book.pdf
This document shows that American fleet-average fuel economy peaked in 1987 and has declined about ten percent since, despite improvements in fuel consumption technology.
Seriously, with a correct oil price, America should presently have a 24 MPG fleet-average, a 10% improvement over two decades, not something hovering around 20 MPG after a 10% decline.
The difference would offset the 20% of the fuel supply we are now frantically replacing with ethanol, without having to actually make any ethanol.
I think the answer was pretty simple: allow the price of oil to slowly creep upward until the fleet-average fuel economy was tracking a 1 MPG/decade improvement curve. At some price, people will think twice about buying that SUV they don't really need. In my mind, that price would have been a good price, as it would have corresponded with sensible consumption choices.
The whole thing could have been rather slow, steady, and painless, but no, apparently catastrophism is the American way.